October 16, 2025
You'd be forgiven for being a little skeptical about what happens next.
After two long, terrible years of death, destruction and trauma, Israel and Hamas finally silenced their weapons this weekend. This was the first step in implementing the first phase of what we hope will be what President Trump has called it: a real and lasting peace agreement. This moment was the first step towards ending a devastating war and unimaginable human suffering. For the families of the hostages, finally reunited, this moment brings relief that has been delayed for too long. For the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip, this gives hope that the relentless destruction and death will end and they can begin to rebuild their lives and their nation.
But relief in itself does not mean peace. Hope in itself is not justice. And the implementation of the first stage of the 20-point plan does not make its implementation inevitable.
If you've been following Israeli-Palestinian relations for any length of time, you'd be forgiven for being a little skeptical about what happens next. We recall that President Trump presented a 20-point plan at a White House meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu (but without any Palestinian voices) last month. For now, the Israeli government and Hamas have only agreed on the first phase of this plan. And while this first phase calls for an end to the war, the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, and increased aid, it does not define a viable framework for how Gaza will be governed or reconstructed. It also does not include the deployment of the International Security Force called for in the 20-point plan, which would take over security responsibility from Hamas forces.
There is cause for concern that Trump's deal could fall apart at the end of the first phase. As a result, Gaza will be divided into two parts: the urban and coastal areas of Gaza from which Israel has withdrawn will continue to be ruled by Hamas and will not have the resources to begin reconstruction. And the remaining 53 percent of Gaza will remain under Israeli occupation, and Israeli forces are likely to resume periodic attacks on what they call Hamas infrastructure.
This is a recipe for disaster. The most obvious lesson from the October 7 attacks is that Netanyahu's previous approach to Gazans—locking them behind a series of barriers and avoiding any genuine peace process—was not only a moral failure, but also a strategic one. The use of military force alone, without diplomatic efforts to resolve any of the underlying issues in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, meant that the discontent and anger of the Palestinian public continued to grow. And no barriers, no matter how large, high-tech or complex, can hold people back forever.
So how do we avoid getting stuck at the end of the first stage?
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Likewise, we have arrived at the first stage: coordinated and sustained international pressure on Israeli and Palestinian leaders. Trump's 20-point plan did not emerge ex nihilo from the White House last month. It was a reformulation of ideas that had been circulating in official and track two negotiations for at least a year, including from the recent French-Saudi plan.
The White House plan crystallized after Israel's failed attempt to assassinate Hamas officials in Qatar in early September. That's when administration officials began working seriously with the Qataris to end the war.
Trump did what he does best: he forced Prime Minister Netanyahu to agree to the plan and made it clear that any Israeli violations of his spirit would not be tolerated. The Qataris – along with other regional leaders – have applied similar pressure to Hamas leaders.
This deal, limited and fragile as it may be, opens a door that has been closed for too long. This door could, with a lot of effort, lead to genuine peace based on the creation of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. But for us to walk through that door, we need to see Israeli and Palestinian leaders live up to their commitments and continue to commit to an agenda that can create a better future for their peoples—even if that progress runs counter to their own political interests.
Consider two important tests: Israel is entering an election year in which politicians will have a high incentive to differentiate. We have already seen far-right politicians making headlines with provocative visits to the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. Settler violence in the West Bank seems inevitable, especially since far-right ministers now control the Ministry of Finance, the Civil Administration and the police. Will Netanyahu put his political capital on the line to stop them?
On the Palestinian side, both the Hamas leadership and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas are expected to give up significant influence as part of the 20-point plan. Hamas is expected to disarm and give up political control of the Gaza Strip. The Palestinian Authority faces reforms aimed at eliminating the political patronage that is a hallmark of the Abbas regime. Will these Palestinian leaders do what is necessary to create a new, effective and unified Palestinian government?
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The answer depends on the carrots and sticks that the international community offers. We have seen a willingness to act from much of the Arab world, particularly including the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt. When this was reinforced by President Trump's resolve, we saw the fighting finally stop. But will President Trump waver once the initial praise wears off, or will he follow through?
For the sake of Israelis and Palestinians and all who care about them, I hope America will stand by and keep the door to a better future open.
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