As they say, in politics a week is a lifetime. For recent evidence, look to Texas.
The state did not have a confirmed congressional district map early last week. Politicians on both sides of the party were unsure whether they should resign or if – and where – they should run again. Uncertainty surrounds the fate of President Donald Trump's call for state lawmakers to create five additional Republican congressional seats hung thickly in the air.
The state now has a congressional map approved by the U.S. Supreme Court. But one of the most interesting races in the country—for a seat in the U.S. Senate—also took shape as candidates refined their plans. The five-person race in 2026 could not only make or break the GOP's three-seat Senate majority for the next two years, but could also help define the identity of the two major parties going forward.
Why did we write this
It was a big month for politics in Texas after the Supreme Court upheld congressional redistricting and leading candidates finalized their plans. The Senate race has become a hotly contested race with multiple choices in both the Democratic and GOP primaries.
Texas is a deeply conservative state; It's been three decades since a Democrat last won a statewide race here. What's popular among voters in that state won't reflect the rest of the country. Still, questions about the candidates' style and substance here reflect a national debate about what types of politicians resonate most with voters in this political moment.
Who will these voters choose among a diverse array of candidates? The experienced and conservative incumbent, Senator John Cornyn? Or his arguably more conservative—but more controversial—chief opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton? U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt is also running as a Republican and has done reasonably well in early polls.
As for the Democrats, will they elect young, religious, progressive State Rep. James Talarico? Or firebrand and social media superstar Rep. Jasmine Crockett?
In some ways, this election represents a combination of all the issues that have dominated Texas politics over the past three decades. How conservative will the Republican candidate be? What will it take for a Democrat to end the party's statewide losing streak? With the primaries in four months and the general election in 11, the answers are still a long way off. But this race promises to be one of the defining contests of this election cycle.
“We're even more polarized now” than in recent elections, says Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston.
Voters will be faced with a choice, he adds: “Who best fits their ideological vision and who can win?”
Red half
Since entering the Senate in 2002, Mr. Cornyn faces perhaps the toughest re-election fight of his career. Over the decades, he led the gradual development of his party. shift right. But the Republican Party is now more ideologically conservative than ever, and it owes to Trump's singular influence.
Sen. Cornyn “has been able to adapt as needed,” says Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University in Houston. But “he had a harder time adapting to the Trump era.”
Mr. Cornyn, Dr. Jones adds, faces the prospect that his primary opponents will “remind[ing] Texas Republican voters with any right-of-center or compromise position [he] happened in the last decade.”
This includes helping push gun safety legislation through Congress following the 2022 mass shooting at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas. This also includes his skepticism of Trump over the years.
Meanwhile, Mr. Paxton has filed a lawsuit seeking to overturn the 2020 election results in four states due to alleged fraud. (The U.S. Supreme Court ultimately ruled against him, saying he had no standing to sue and there was no evidence of widespread fraud.)
Unfortunately for Mr. Paxton, his conservative bona fides are beset by a long history of personal and political differences. He faced securities fraud charges for ten years. (He settled the matter last year.) He was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas Legislature in 2023 on charges of bribery and abuse of office. (The State Senate acquitted him on a party-line vote.) Most recently, his wife Angela, a state senator and devout Christian, announced that she filed for divorce “on biblical grounds.” In court documents, she alleged adultery.
Recent Polls Some Republicans argue that Mr. Cornyn and Mr. Paxton find themselves in a close race, but that baggage should be enough to make Mr. Paxton an unviable candidate in the general election.
“Religious conservatives in the party are unhappy with Paxton,” says Gary Poland, editor-in-chief of the online newsletter Texas Conservative Review.
The GOP majority in the U.S. Senate also complicates the fundraising math if the embattled attorney general wins the nomination. It could also make it harder to support Mr. Trump, Mr. Poland says.
“I don't expect Trump to endorse Paxton,” he adds. “Trump wants to win [the Senate] in November. … If Paxton is nominated, it will require the expenditure of significant resources. [in Texas] they would be better spent on other races.”
Paxton's campaign did not respond to requests for comment.
Blue half
Indeed, the prospect of Paxton's nomination gave Democrats hope that the Senate seat could be won.
Democrats are “desperate to run against Ken Paxton,” says Matt Mackowiak, a GOP consultant and senior adviser to Cornyn's campaign.
“He would be at the top of the list,” he adds. “And we don't have to look far back to see the consequences of having a weak candidate at the top of the ballot.”
In 2018, Senator Ted Cruz ran for re-election and beat Democratic Representative Beto O'Rourke by just 2.6 points, the closest Senate race in the state since 1978. unpopularity in the state, coupled with Mr. Trump's unpopularity among Democratscontributed to a strong surge in popularity among Democratic voters. The party hopes for a similar formula next November.
Still, Democrats have a biennial challenge: Can they win by convincing Republican voters to split their tickets and vote for a Democrat—something likely only feasible by nominating a more moderate candidate? Or do they win by getting as many Democrats and nonvoters to the polls as possible with fiery rhetoric?
Mr. Talarico appears to have chosen the former.
His profile rose primarily as the face of Democratic resistance to GOP redistricting efforts, efforts that drew praise former President Barack Obama. In July, he made a stunning appearance on Joe Rogan's podcast, earning Rogan's recommendation to run for president. The Orthodox campaign “is [not] going to cut it in Texas,” Mr. Talarico. said during a September interview. He would like to have a meeting with the GOP group “so we can have a real dialogue,” he added.
Ms. Crockett appears to have chosen the latter.
Having earned national recognition for her viral clashes with fellow Republicans in Congress, she stated At a campaign launch event, Trump “better get to work, because I'm coming for you.”
Republicans have since stated that they pushed Ms. Crockett to run because they believed she would be too polarized to win in the general election. While recent polls show her leading Mr. Talarico, they also show she has lower favorability ratings than any candidate other than Mr. Paxton and Mr. Cornyn among Texas voters.
In fact, experts say both Democrats will be polarized in November.
“Both candidates are progressive,” says Professor Rottinghaus.
Mr. Talarico “doesn't demonize Republicans as often or as loudly as Jasmine Crockett,” he adds. “It will make him look moderate. But it is moderation in tactics and tone, not moderation in policy.”
On issues of sex and gender, for example Mr. Talarico said that “God is non-binary.” In another speech, he noted that “there are many more than two biological sexes. In fact, there are six.”
Neither the Crockett nor Talarico campaigns responded to requests for comment.
“Even more polarized”
In fact, next year's midterm elections will be one of the most important and competitive elections in Texas in decades. Both parties will hold tight primaries involving politically vulnerable candidates – primaries that could well lead to a runoff election in May.
Texas voters will be asked again and again who they want to represent, and will have to answer age-old political questions about experience or novelty, compromise or ideological purity. The nation will be watching.
While statewide elections in Texas follow a familiar rhythm from years of Republican dominance, because of “the size of the office and the stakes for Texas and the nation,” Professor Rottinghaus says, the fight next year will be entirely new.
“It's a film we've seen before, but now it's approaching blockbuster status,” he adds.
