With the non-conference season wrapping up on Tuesday, it's time to get our first look at how the tournament bracket is shaping up. For Illinois, wins already earned over Texas Tech, Tennessee and Ohio State gave them three Quad 1 wins and put the Illini well on their way to their next tournament appearance. What Underwood and the Balkans will play for (besides Big Ten dominance) will be an easier path to the Final Four in Indianapolis.
Besides getting a higher seed to get easier early opponents, there is a dream path from St. Louis to Chicago and Indianapolis, but there is a lot of competition in Illinois for those spots. Who do the Illini need to beat on the starting line to get those spots?
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In St. Louis, the teams to watch are Iowa State and Purdue. Illinois will have to finish above one of those teams to earn a first- and second-round berth in St. Louis. Both of these teams are projected as 2 seeds at this point, so Illinois will have some work to do or one of them will have to have a disappointing conference season. There's a chance a team like Kansas or Nebraska would also go to St. Louis if Oklahoma City is already filled, and a team like Iowa or Louisville could also step up and compete for those spots, but the main competitors are the Cyclones and Boilermakers.
For Chicago, that essentially means being the top-seeded team in the Big Ten. Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State and Nebraska would all have Chicago as their preferred region, but seeding procedures state that the top four seeded teams (lines 1-4) must go to different regions, so after the first team takes Chicago, the next three will have to go to Houston, Washington or San Jose. Because the Big Ten is so strong, there is a chance that there will be more than four teams in the top four spots and Chicago will again be an option for the fifth team, but at that point a number of other seeding procedures also come into play. In this iteration, for example, Illinois is the fifth seeded team in the Big Ten, but since Michigan is the top seeded team overall, they needed a weaker four seed than Illinois (the second 4 seed in my group) to balance out their region, so last four seed Kansas took that spot.
Midwest (Chicago)
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North Carolina (Tampa Bay)
Region Notes:
Undefeated Michigan and former Illini Maures Johnson currently hold the No. 1 seed in the country. Their combination of positional size, athleticism and coaching will make them a serious national title contender. In this case, Dusty May may have to retire some of his coaching heroes to get there, and matchups with elder statesmen Rick Pitino, Rick Barnes and then Kelvin Sampson are possible. St. John's second-round matchup will be a rematch of the exhibition game, which Michigan won 96-94 in overtime. St. John's was a preseason top 10 team that had a disappointing non-conference season but has the talent to cause an upset.
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Another Big Ten team in the region sees Iowa head coach Ben McCollum on the other side of the Cinderella story. Last year, McCollum took 11th-seeded Drake into the second round with a win over Missouri. He's currently at a Power Conference school and is putting together one of the most dangerous mid-majors in the country this year. The Ben McCollum vs. Josh Schertz coaching battle is an important event for basketball fans who enjoy great tactical training. Also check out Robbie Avila.
South (Houston)
Region Notes:
This is the Champions Bracket. Eight of the top nine seeds have won an NCAA championship in the last 30 years, with Duke, Kansas, Villanova, Florida and Kentucky owning multiple championships and a combined 16 of the last 30 NCAA champions. A second-round matchup with defending champions Florida and freshman superstars Cameron Boozer and Duke will be the highlight of the opening weekend. The two have played before this season, with Duke winning 67-66 at home in what has been the story of the Gators' season so far, with close losses in their biggest games.
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Buckeye star Bruce Thornton has one last chance to avoid becoming Ohio State's Malcolm Hill: a great non-tournament player. At the moment this is the last team on the field. That would earn him a first four against Miami in a rematch of the memorable 2003 college football championship game. Miami has former Hoosier star Malik Renaud playing, and he and Thornton could compete for a chance to make the tournament weekend.
East (Washington, DC)
Region Notes:
To get out of Philadelphia like Will Smith, Illinois will have to defend the three-point line. Liberty ranks 12th in the nation in threes, while Louisville is second. The matchup to watch in this Louisville game is the battle of the star freshmen. Can Mikel Brown's explosive athleticism overcome Keaton Wagler's brilliant slow-motion performance?
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If Illinois gets out of the opening weekend, the boogeyman will be waiting in the Sweet 16. Dan Hurley has had Brad Underwood's number in the previous two meetings, and precise half-court sets with lots of back shots and off-ball moves are this defense's biggest weakness, something YUKON excels at. However, slaying the dragon and getting into the Elite Eight over UCLA would be very satisfying.
On the other side of the bracket, I don't see much competition for Purdue or BYU at the bottom of the bracket. The Sweet 16 matchup will be fun and high-scoring. I don't think BYU has anyone who can stop Braden Smith from slicing up the defense, but Purdue doesn't have any wing defenders who hope to slow down projected top-two pick AJ DiBanza. For Illinois, making it to the Final Four through UCLA and then Purdue seems unlikely, but it will be cathartic.
West (San Jose)
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Region Notes:
Another juicy game in Dayton involving a Big Ten team. Indiana refuses to put Butler on the list for fear of humiliation from its tiny in-state rival, but in this case the committee is forcing it on them. That's what you get for losing to Minnesota.
There are two other Big Ten teams in the bracket, and I predict this is the highest we've seen from Nebraska all year and the lowest we've seen from UCLA. Nebraska is off to a terrific start, with the win in Champaign a gold star on their resume, but I expect them to be closer to the 5-7 range as the conference season progresses. UCLA had a few misses in the non-conference season and a tough loss to California, but they are too talented not to start building a stronger resume.
