Gavin Newsome off and running I'm looking at the White House when he enters the far corner and his final year as governor of California.
The track record of California Democrats and the presidency is not good. In the nearly 250 years of the existence of the United States, not a single left-coast Democrat has ever been elected president. Kamala Harris is just the latest fail. (Twice.)
Will Newsome be able to break this losing streak and make history in 2028?
Loyal readers of this column – both of you – of course know what I feel.
Harry South disagrees.
Veteran Democratic campaign strategist, described as having a “pillar-driving personality and a hot mouth” – by me, actually — has never lacked strong and colorful opinions. Here, in an email exchange, we discuss our differences.
Barabak: You once worked for Newsom, didn't you?
South: Indeed, I did it. I was a senior strategist at his first campaign for governor. This continued for 15 months in 2008 and 2009. dropped out of the race when we couldn't figure out how to beat Jerry Brown in the closed Democratic primary.
I was the one who wrote the memorable punchline of Newsom's speech before 2009 state Democratic conventionthat the race was a choice between “a walk down memory lane and a sprint into the future.”
We found ourselves down memory lane.
Barabak: Do you still advise Newsom or members of his political team?
South: No, although we communicate regularly with him since then his days as lieutenant governor. I know many of his employees and consultants, but I do not work with them in any paid capacity. Besides, the governor's sister and I are friends.
Barabak: You watched Newsom closely during that 2010 race. What are his strengths as an activist?
South: Newsom is a skilled speaker, has excellent stage presence, has a commanding presence and can hold the audience in the palm of your hand his hands when he's really on. He has a mind like a steel trap, and he never forgets anything that is said or read to him.
I always associated his amazing memory with the difficulties he had in reading due to his I have struggled with severe dyslexia all my life.. Because Newsom has such difficulty reading, what he reads seems to be permanently imprinted in his mind.
Barabak: Weaknesses or weaknesses?
South: Given his remarkable command of facts and data, as well as his command of the English language, he can sometimes talk for too long. During that first gubernatorial campaign, when he was still mayor of San Francisco, he once gave a seven-hour State of the City address.
Barabak:Fidel Castro must have been impressed!
South: It wasn't as bad as it sounds: it was broken up into 10 “webisodes” on his YouTube channel. But still…
Barabak: So, let's get down to business. I think Newsom's chances of being elected president are somewhere between slim and nonexistent – and Slim was last seen near I-5 in San Ysidro, checking out a trip to Mexico.
You don't agree.
South: I completely disagree. I think you underestimate the changes Trump has made (rot?) in our political system over the last 10 years.
Trump election convicted criminal, not once, but twicehas really blown the hell out of the traditional paradigms that we've had for decades in terms of how we assess the viability of presidential candidates – what state they're from, their ageif they have disruptions in their personal or professional life.
Not to mention a criminal record, if they have one.
The American people actually elected to a second term a man who incited an insurrection against his country when he was president the first time, including armed attack on our national capital in which the woman was killed and why he was rightly brought to justice. It would be foolish not to conclude that the old rules, the old conventional wisdom about what voters will accept and what they will not, will disappear forever.
It also doesn't surprise me that you're dismissive of Newsom's prospects. It's typical for home-state journalists to laugh when their own governor is touted as a presidential candidate.
First, familiarity breeds contempt. Secondly, the prophet is dishonest in his own country.
Barabak: I'll give you a couple of points.
I'm old enough to remember friends in the Arkansas political press ridiculing the idea that their governor was a phenomenally gifted but wildly undisciplined Bill Clintoncould someday be elected president.
I also remember the old Clairol hair dye commercial: “The closer it gets… the better you look!” (Google it, kids). Quite the opposite when it comes to presidential hopefuls and the reporters who cover them day in and day out.
And you're certainly right: the nature of what constitutes a scandal or disqualifies a presidential candidate, changed radically in the era of Trump.
Despite all of the above, some basics remain the same. Returning to Clinton's 1992 election campaignhis still Economics is stupid. Or, to put it another way, it is about people's life experiences, their economic security or lack thereof, and personal well-being.
Newsom is the current favorite among the chatty political class and internet activists because a) these are people who are already in the 2028 race and b) many of them are looking forward to himThese are Trumpian takedowns. president on social networks.
When attention shifts to issues that affect voters' ability to pay for housing, healthcareproducts, utility bills and just to survive, Newsom's opponents will have to have a good time trashing him and California's high prices. homelessness And shrinking middle class.
Kamala Harris made two unsuccessful bids for the White House. Her losses continued an unbroken string of left-coast Democratic losses.
(Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)
South: This is not just a chatting class.
Newsom is now the leading candidate among rank-and-file Democrats. They've been begging—begging—for years for some Democratic Party leader to come out of the box, take responsibility, and fight back by giving Trump gets a dose of his own medicine. Newsom is meeting that demand with wit, skill and persistence—not just on social media, but through passage of Proposition 50democratic measure against gerrymandering.
And Democrats recognize and appreciate this.
Barabak: Hm. Maybe I'm lacking imagination, but I just can't imagine a world in which Democrats say, “Hey, the solution to our heartbreaking defeat in 2024 is to nominate another a well-coiffed, left-wing product of that bastion of homespun America, San Francisco.”
South: Uh, Americans have already elected a president twice, not only from New York, but also who lived in an ivory tower in Manhattanin a penthouse with a 24-karat gold front door (and presumably gold-plated toilet seats). Do you think Manhattan is more representative of middle America than San Francisco?
As I said, after the Trump precedent, country of origin has become less important.
Barabak: Trump was something larger than life — or at least a celebrity bigger than Manhattan. Geography was no obstacle because he had – and still has – a remarkable ability, far beyond my understanding, to present himself as working class platformoppressed and economically struggling Americans, even as he spreads gold leaf around him like a child with a can of Silly String.
Speaking of Kamala Harris, she didn't rule out a third try at the White House in 2028. Where would you put your money in the Newsom-Harris race for the Democratic nomination? What about Harris in the general election, Vs. whoever the Republicans choose?
South: Harris running again in 2028 will look like Michael Dukakis makes a second try to the presidency in 1992. My God, not only did she lose every swing state and the Electoral College by nearly 100 votes, Harris also lost the popular vote – the first Democrat to do so in 20 years.
If she doesn't want to embarrass herself, she should listen to voters in her home state, who said she shouldn't run again by a 69-31 margin in the latest CBS News/YouGov poll. (Even 52% of Democrats said no). She's yesterday's news.
Barabak: You seem to feel that one walk down memory lane was enough. We'll see if Harris – and, more pertinently, Democratic primary voters – agree.
