Two NATO intelligence agencies suspect Russia is developing a new anti-satellite weapon to hit Elon Musk's Starlink constellation with destructive orbital clouds of shrapnel in a bid to curb the Western space supremacy that has helped Ukraine on the battlefield.
The intelligence findings, reviewed by The Associated Press, said so-called “area-effect” weapons would be aimed at the sinking. Starlink Orbits with hundreds of thousands of high-density pellets, potentially disabling multiple satellites at once, but also risking catastrophic collateral damage to other orbital systems.
Analysts who have not seen the results say they doubt such a weapon could work without causing uncontrollable chaos in space. companies and countriesincluding Russia and its ally Chinawhich rely on thousands of orbiting satellites for communications, defense and other vital needs.
Such consequences, including risks to its own space systems, could deter Moscow from deploying or using such weapons, analysts say.
“I don't buy it. I really don't,” said Victoria Samson, a space security specialist at the Secure World Foundation who heads the Colorado-based nongovernmental organization. annual survey anti-satellite systems. “Honestly, I would be very surprised if they did something like that.”
But the commander of the Canadian Forces space division, Brig. General Christopher Horner said such Russian activity could not be ruled out in light of previous US accusations that Russia was also pursuing indiscriminate policies space-based nuclear weapons.
“I can't say that I was informed about such a system. But it is not implausible,” he said. “If the reports about the nuclear weapons system are accurate and that they are willing to develop it and are willing to go towards that goal, then it would not shock me that they have something in their development wheelhouse that is very different but just as destructive.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not respond to AP messages seeking comment. Russia has called earlier for the efforts of the United Nations to stop orbital deployment of weapons and the president Vladimir Putin said that Moscow has no intention deployment of nuclear space weapons.
The intelligence findings were provided to the AP on the condition that the agencies involved were not identified and the news organization could not independently verify the findings of the findings.
US Space Force did not respond to questions via email. The French military's space command, in a statement to the AP, said it could not comment on the findings, but said: “We can tell you that Russia has been increasing its irresponsible, dangerous and even hostile activities in space in recent years.”
Russia views Starlink in particular as a serious threat, the study shows. Thousands of low-orbit satellites have played a critical role in Ukraine's survival in the face of Russia's full-scale invasion, now in its fourth year.
Starlink's high-speed internet service is used by the Ukrainian military for battlefield communications, targeting weapons and other targets, and by civilians and government officials where Russian strikes have affected communications.
Russian officials have repeatedly warned that commercial satellites serving the Ukrainian military could be legitimate targets. This month, Russia said it had deployed a new ground-based missile system, the S-500, which is capable of hitting low-orbit targets.
Unlike a rocket, which Russia passed tests in 2021 To destroy a defunct Cold War-era satellite, a new weapon in development would target multiple Starlinks simultaneously, with pellets possibly fired by as-yet-unlaunched groups of small satellites, intelligence findings show.
Horner, from Canada, said it was difficult to imagine how clouds of pellets could be assembled to hit only Starlink, and that debris from such an attack could “spread out of control in a hurry.”
“You blow up a box full of BBs,” he said. This “will lock down the entire orbital mode and destroy every Starlink satellite and every other satellite that is in a similar mode. And I think that's the part that's incredibly worrying.”
The findings, seen by The Associated Press, do not say when Russia might deploy such a system, nor do they detail whether it has been tested or where research is estimated to have progressed.
The system is under active development, and information about the timing of the expected deployment is too sensitive to be released, according to an official familiar with the results and other relevant intelligence that the AP has not seen. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss classified findings.
According to Samson, such Russian research may simply be experimental in nature.
“I wouldn't rule out some scientists … building something like this because it's an interesting thought experiment and they think, 'Maybe at some point we can get our government to pay for this,'” she said.
Samson suggested that the specter of a supposed new Russian threat could also be an attempt to provoke an international response.
“Often the people pushing these ideas do so because they want the American side to build something similar, or … to justify increased spending on counter-space capabilities or to use them for a more aggressive approach towards Russia,” she said.
“I’m not saying this is what’s happening with it,” Samson added. “But people have been known to take these crazy arguments and run with them.”
The intelligence findings say the granules would be so small (just a few millimeters across) that they would not be detected by ground-based and space-based systems that scan for space objects, which could make it difficult to blame any attack on Moscow.
Clayton Swope, who specializes in space security and weapons at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a security and policy think tank in Washington, D.C., said that if “the pellets can't be traced, that complicates the situation” but “people will figure it out.”
“If satellites start to go dark due to damage, I think we can put two and two together,” he said.
It's unclear exactly how much damage the tiny granules might cause. In November, a suspected impact from a small piece of debris was enough to damage a Chinese spacecraft that was supposed to deliver three astronauts back to Earth.
“The greatest damage will likely be to the solar panels because they are probably the most fragile part” of the satellites, Swope said. “However, this would be enough to damage the satellite and possibly render it inoperable.”
After such an attack, analysts say particles and debris would eventually fall back toward Earth, possibly damaging other orbital systems on their way down.
Starlink orbits about 550 kilometers (340 miles) above the planet. Chinese space station Tiangong and International Space Station They will operate in lower orbits, “so both will face risks,” Swope said.
The cosmic chaos such weapons could cause could allow Moscow to threaten its adversaries without having to actually use them, Swope said.
“It definitely looks like a weapon of fear, aimed at some kind of deterrence or something,” he said.
Samson said the shortcomings of indiscriminate shotguns could lead Russia astray from this path.
“They have invested an enormous amount of time, money and manpower into becoming a space power,” she said.
Using such a weapon would “effectively cut off their space as well,” Samson said. “I don’t know if they’re willing to give that much.”
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Emma Burrows in London contributed to this report.
