After Petr Yan's complete victory over Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 323 and returning the bantamweight gold to him, this was the reason for this unexpected result: Dvalishvili entered the fight as a -430 favorite; Yang, a +340 underdog, was presented as a dichotomy.
Either Dvalishvili flew too close to the sun, trying to create a schedule that was too difficult in his quest to become the first UFC champion to defend his belt four times in a calendar year, and sabotaging his effectiveness in the process. Or Yan stepped up his level significantly between their first fight in 2023, which was dominated by Dvalishvili, and this fight, which saw an almost complete turnaround in numbers, developing a meticulous game plan specifically designed to counter Dvalishvili's ruthlessness.
But why not both? Dvalishvili, an old-school weightlifter known for his fight-day sparring, could hardly be at his best facing his fourth major opponent in 12 months and third in six months. However, Yang is an extremely skilled and accurate boxer with an underrated fighting IQ who gradually refines his approach the more he sees his opponent and recognizes their tendencies.
Ultimately, this is an incredible fight between the elite bantamweights. A trilogy is inevitable. And if both fighters are healthy and motivated, the UFC could schedule an immediate rematch sometime in the first half of 2026. But after the grueling training and competition that Dvalishvili has endured throughout 2025, the best thing for him, both physically and mentally, should be a long break.
In 2025, Dvalishvili fought not only four times. He completed 17 of 20 rounds, spending 89:42 of a possible 100 minutes in the Octagon. Not to mention the repeated weight cuts or additional advertising and media demands that champions inherit leading up to their fights.
Dvalishvili doesn't look like a man who enjoys his free time. But at the very least, he would benefit from spending a month or two channeling his endless supply of energy into something less physically, mentally and emotionally taxing than hand-to-hand combat on the world's biggest arena.
So let's put that aside for a moment and try to find a first defense for Yan, who fought twice in 2024 and 2025. Assuming he escapes the Dvalishvili fight without serious injury, a return in the spring or early summer should work. And three fights are already planned for early 2026, in which his challenger may appear.
The beauty of a long-time champion leaving is that it freshens up the division and opens up a new world of title shot opportunities. Suddenly the calculus changed for everyone Dvalishvili had defeated before. Here's a look at those three fights in the first quarter that could determine Yan's first title defense. And after that, there's a bonus fight for the middle of the top 10 that the UFC could put in place to build the next layer of contenders for 2027 and beyond.
Three bantamweight fights have already taken place
Son Yadong vs. Sean O'Malley
No one should be happier about Dvalishvili's dethronement than former champion O'Malley, who has already lost to him twice in title fights. Suddenly his path back to the belt was open again, especially considering he scored a split decision over Yan in the 2022 bout.
It was a tense three-round fight with many believing Yan deserved to win, which only strengthens the case for a five-round rematch. And given O'Malley's popularity, you know the UFC would love to book him. The only obstacle is Sun.
And the explosive 28-year-old will not be easy to overcome. Song is an aggressive and powerful hitter who can close the distance quickly and disrupt the patient long game that O'Malley prefers to play. He is not the type of enemy you want to engage in a close-range firefight with.
O'Malley's best bet might be to rely on his championship round experience and superior lateral movement to force Song to chase him down, draining his energy while looking for the right moment to land a pinfall from distance if he gets the better of his opponent.
Now Sun has lost to Yang via unanimous decision in 2024, so a win over O'Malley may not be enough to earn him an immediate title shot. In this case, the UFC can pay attention to the result of the next fight.
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
Nurmagomedov's soaring ranking took a hit after his January title fight, when Dvalishvili showed his inexperience by wearing him down with relentless pressure over five hard-fought rounds. But Khabib's cousin returned in October with a convincing decision win (30-27 on all three scorecards) over Mario Bautista, who has won eight matches in a row and is not easy to look good against.
Nobody needs Nurmagomedov to bolster their wrestling pedigree. But controlling Bautista – a jiu-jitsu black belt and submission specialist – on the ground for more than two-thirds of the fight while outdoing him on the feet re-established the Dagestani as one of the toughest fights in the division.
If he gets past Figueiredo—another experienced fighter with a powerful Muay Thai background to boot—Nurmagomedov will have no choice but a Dvalishvili rematch or a championship fight. And a win for Song over O'Malley will only solidify Nurmagomedov's position as the No. 1 contender in the division.
Of course, no one should count out Figueiredo, who will fight for his career. At 38 years old, with recent losses to Ian and Corey Sandhagen on his resume, the former flyweight champion can't afford to pass up this fight. If he does, retirement may beckon. He'll throw everything he has at Nurmagomedov, a dangerous proposition considering Figueiredo has as much power as anyone in the division.
There's a small path to a title shot here if Figueiredo can defeat Nurmagomedov in impressive fashion and get some luck in the form of Song's win over O'Malley. In this situation, the UFC might want to make the most of what the veteran has left and quickly get him into a championship fight. As always in MMA, we can't rule anything out. Even in the next fight, an unexpected opponent appeared.
Vinicius Oliveira vs. Mario Bautista
It's a big test for Oliveira, who is unbeaten in four UFC fights since joining the organization from the Contender Series in 2023. He has a huge frame for weighing 135 pounds. and used it to defeat opponents throughout his run – both on his feet and on the ground.
He outclassed Victor Madrigal with a winged strike in the Contender Series, demolished Bernardo Sopay with a knee in his debut and outpointed dangerous submission artist Said Nurmagomedov while battling a rib injury. The UFC loves great fighters, and Oliveira consistently delivers.
But it doesn't take a keen eye to spot the openings in Oliveira's game, especially when he tries to force those moments. He often fights with his hands at his waist, forcing opponents to hit him while preparing for huge counterattacks, which he throws with reckless abandon. A quick and calculating opponent could take advantage of this, using timing and precision to exploit Oliveira's defensive breakdown.
Could Bautista be that guy? He's as well-rounded and adaptable as any player in the division, and while he's not the biggest striker, he moves well and can overwhelm opponents with his volume. That's how he snapped an eight-fight winning streak before being defeated by Umar Nurmagomedov at UFC 321.
Based on fight IQ and experience alone, Bautista should be favored here and could quickly re-establish himself as a top 135 pound fighter. contender, defending his position in the rankings while rejecting a rising prospect. But Oliveira is a monster, and he's proven time and time again that he only needs one episode to add another name to his highlight reel. And if he can do it here, he could quickly earn a promotion in a promotion that loves risk-taking, bust-ready fighters.
Aimann Zahabi vs Cory Sandhagen
Now that the aforementioned half-dozen are battling it out at the top of the division, the next-level contenders need to keep their hands busy. And a booking that could help set the stage for what comes next is one between a rising Zahabi and a declining but always dangerous Sandhagen.
Zahabi has won seven fights in a row, the last three against established bantamweight brands Pedro Munoz, Jose Aldo and Marlon Vera. But at 38, he is also fighting against time. The UFC might as well elevate him to the top rung of the division now to see if he can continue that path and make his way to a title shot.
And Sandhagen is a great test. As agile and creative as anyone in the sport, the 32-year-old is a complex puzzle to solve and could thoroughly test Zahabi's technically accomplished style. Not to mention that after recent failures against Nurmagomedov and Dvalishvili, Sandhagen needs to defend his position in the rankings.
Both fighters are meticulous game planners with high fight IQs and could easily carry the Fight Night card in the five-round main event. And the stakes will be high for both as Sandhagen tries to stay in title contention at the top of the division and Zahabi looks to move into it.
