If you add nuclear power into the mix, within the first nine months of 2025 the US will achieve a power grid that is 40 percent emissions-free. This is only 1 percent more than the same period last year. And because coal emits more carbon than natural gas, it's likely that the U.S. will see a net increase in electricity-related emissions this year.
However, if you'd like a reason to feel more optimistic, the EIA used new data to publish analysis state of the grid in California, where utility-scale solar power production has nearly doubled over the past five years, thanks in part to another 17 percent increase in 2024.
Through 2023, it was difficult to predict any impact of solar power generation on the rest of the grid, in part due to increased demand. But natural gas consumption has fallen significantly since then (down 17 percent in 2025), putting it in danger of being replaced by solar energy as California's largest source of electricity as early as next year. The shift comes even as overall consumption in California jumped 8 percent in 2025 compared with the same period last year.
The massive growth of solar power has also led to an oversupply of electricity in the spring and fall, when heating/cooling needs are lowest. This in turn has led to a surge in the production of batteries, which absorb cheap energy and sell it back after the sun goes down. As recently as 2023, the impact of batteries was nearly impossible to estimate, but data for May and June 2025 shows that batteries use a lot of energy during the midday and use it in the early evening to fully offset what would otherwise be a huge surge in natural gas use.
Not every state has solar resources like California. But the economics of solar energy suggest other states are likely to experience similar growth in the coming years. And while the Trump administration has been openly hostile to solar power since taking office, there is still no sign of that hostility at the grid level.
