When the polar ice sheets melt, the effects spread throughout the world. Melting ice raises average global sea levels, changes ocean currents and affects temperatures in places far from the poles.
But melting ice sheets do not have the same effect on sea levels and temperatures everywhere.
IN November 2025 studyOur team of scientists investigated how melting ice in Antarctica affects global climate and sea levels. We combined computer models of the Antarctic ice sheet, the solid Earth and global climate, including atmospheric and oceanic processes, to study the complex interactions of melting ice with other parts of the Earth.
Understanding what's happening to Antarctica's ice is important because it contains enough frozen water to raise average sea level by about 190 feet (58 meters). As the ice melts, it becomes an existential challenge for the people and ecosystems of island and coastal communities.
Changes in Antarctica
The extent to which the Antarctic ice sheet melts will depend on how much the Earth warms. And this depends on future greenhouse gas emissions from sources such as vehicles, power plants and industrial plants.
Research suggests that much of the Antarctic ice sheet could survive if countries cut greenhouse gas emissions at 2015 levels. Purpose of the Paris Agreement keep global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. However, if emissions continue to rise and the atmosphere and oceans warm even more, it could cause significant melting and much higher sea levels.
Our research shows that high emissions create risks not only for the stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet, which is already contributing to sea level rise, but also for the much larger and more stable Ice sheet of East Antarctica.
It also shows how different regions of the world will experience different levels of sea level rise as Antarctica melts.
Understanding sea level change
If sea levels rose like bathwater, then as the ice sheets melted, ocean levels would rise equally everywhere. But that's not what's happening.
Instead, in many places, regional sea levels are rising higher than the global average, and in places close to the ice sheet, sea levels may even be falling. The main reason has to do with gravity.
Ice sheets are massive, and this mass creates a strong gravitational pull that pulls the surrounding ocean water toward it, much like gravity the attraction between the Earth and the Moon affects the tides.
As the ice sheet shrinks, its gravitational pull pull the ocean into the sunsetcausing sea levels to fall in regions close to the ice sheet coast and levels to rise further away. But changes in sea level depend on more than just the distance to the melting ice sheet. This loss of ice also changes the way the planet rotates. The axis of rotation is attracted to the missing mass of ice, which, in turn, redistributes water around the globe.
2 Factors That Can Slow Melting
When a massive ice sheet melts, the solid Earth underneath is restored.
Beneath Antarctica's bedrock is the Earth's mantle, which flows slowly like maple syrup. The more the ice sheet melts, the less pressure it puts on the solid Earth. Having less weight, bedrock can recover. This could move parts of the ice sheet out of contact with warming ocean waters, slowing the rate of melting. This happens faster in places where the mantle flows faster, such as under the West Antarctic ice sheet.
This rebound effect can help save ice sheet – if global greenhouse gas emissions remain low.
Another factor that may slow melting may seem counterintuitive.
While Antarctic meltwater contributes to sea level rise, models show it also delays warming caused by greenhouse gases. This is because Antarctica's ice melt water lowers ocean surface temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere and tropical Pacific, trapping heat in the deep ocean and slowdown in global average temperature growth.
But as melting occurs, even if it slows, sea levels rise.
Sea level mapping
We combined computer models that simulate this and other behavior of the Antarctic ice sheet, solid Earth and climate to understand what might happen to sea levels around the world as global temperatures rise and ice melts.
For example, in a moderate scenario in which the world reduces greenhouse gas emissionsWhile this is not enough to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) in 2100, we found that the average sea level rise from melting Antarctic ice will be about 4 inches (0.1 meters) by 2100. By 2200 it will be more than 3.3 feet (1 meter).
Keep in mind that this is just sea level rise caused by the melting of Antarctica. The Greenland ice sheet and the thermal expansion of seawater as oceans warm will also raise sea levels. Current estimates indicate that total average sea level rise – including Greenland and thermal expansion – would be 1 to 2 feet (0.32 to 0.63 meters) by 2100 under the same scenario.
We also show how sea level rise in Antarctica varies around the world.
In this moderate emissions scenario, we found that the highest sea level rise from Antarctic ice melt alone, up to 5 feet (1.5 meters) by 2200, would occur in the Indian, Pacific, and western Atlantic ocean basins—places far from Antarctica.
These regions are home to many people living in low-lying coastal areas, including island states in the Caribbeansuch as Jamaica, and the central Pacific such as Marshall Islandsalready experiencing the harmful effects of rising sea levels.
Under high emissions scenarioWe found that the average sea level rise caused by Antarctic melting will be much higher: about 1 foot (0.3 meters) in 2100 and about 10 feet (more than 3 meters) in 2200.
Under this scenario, the wider swath of the Pacific basin north of the equator, including Micronesia and Palau, and the mid-Atlantic basin, would experience the highest sea level rise, up to 4.3 meters (14 feet) by 2200, just from Antarctica.
While these sea level rise numbers seem alarming, current global emissions and recent projections suggest so. very high emissions scenario is unlikely. However, this study highlights the serious consequences of high emissions and highlights the importance of reducing them.
Conclusion
These impacts have implications for climate justiceespecially for island nations that have done little to contribute to climate change but are already experiencing the devastating effects of rising sea levels.
Many island nations are already losing land due to rising sea levels. leading global efforts to minimize temperature rise. Protecting these countries and other coastal areas will require reducing greenhouse gas emissions faster than countries undertake to do Today.
This article has been republished from Talka nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trusted analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. He was written by: Shaina Sadai, Five College Consortium And Ambarish Karmalkar, University of Rhode Island
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Shaina Sadai has received funding from the National Science Foundation and the Hitz Family Foundation.
Ambarish Karmalkar receives funding from the National Science Foundation.
