As the end of 2025 approaches, everyday people are taking stock of the past year and perhaps contemplating their New Year's resolutions. Climate scientists, on the other hand, have been busy analyzing reams of data over the past 10 months, ranging from global temperatures to polar ice measurements to the costs of extreme weather. Accordingly, their goal for 2026 may be to somehow signal to world leaders that humanity is running out of time to avert catastrophe.
A sobering summary of what the year's data shows about the state of the planet makes one thing clear: “We are hurtling toward climate chaos.” writes international team of researchers. They add that recent climate events “underscore the woeful inadequacy of global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mark the beginning of a grim new chapter for life on Earth.”
The scientists' remarks couldn't be more alarming, and they have good reason to be afraid. For example, in 2023, the earth's ability to absorb carbon dioxide emissions has decreased significantly. The report confirms that last year was the hottest everand was probably the hottest in the last 125,000 years. Ice mass in Greenland and Antarctica has reached record lows this year, and extreme heat in the oceans has led to the largest coral bleaching event on record, affecting more than 80 percent of the world's reef area. Accordingly, earlier this month another group of researchers announced that the world reached its first major turning point – in which the Earth's system changes dramatically, often irreversibly – as many coral ecosystems pass the point of no return. And in September, even more scientists said that we have reached the seventh of nine planetary boundaries — the thresholds that make our world hospitable to life — as ocean acidification continues to worsen. Taken together, these events show that humanity is pushing Earth's critical systems toward collapse.
This doesn't mean there's nothing we can do to stop the rampant destruction of Earth's systems. For example, prices for renewable energy and batteries fell so sharply what is this even took experts by surpriseThis means that moving away from fossil fuels makes excellent economic sense. We just need politicians to take this issue seriously. decarbonization: At the COP30 climate conference in Brazil next month, countries will be forced to redouble their efforts to cut emissions. “This is really serious, but the game is not over yet,” said R. Max Holmes, president and CEO of the Woodwell Climate Research Center, who was not involved in the report. “There's still hope. There's still something we can do, and that's what we need to build on.”
However, the report makes clear that the severe impacts of climate change that scientists have long warned about are already here. “The main message is that the planet's vital signs are flashing red,” said William J. Ripple, a professor at Oregon State University and co-author of the report, in an email to Grist. “Twenty-two of 34 monitored indicators are now at record extremes, from ocean heat content to the extent of global wildfires and Antarctic ice loss. We are seeing warming accelerating and worsening in almost every key trend in the Earth system.”
The reason for this is the inability of humanity to sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, energy-related emissions rose 1.3 percent last year, the report notes. This is primarily due to governments' lack of ambition to switch to renewable energy, but may also reflect a feedback loop: the hotter it gets, the more people have to use energy-intensive air conditioning to stay healthy, leading to more emissions and more air conditioning use.
At the same time, Earth's systems are struggling to save us from ourselves. Typically, oceans and forests absorb CO2 because marine phytoplankton and land plants absorb the gas as they grow. But scientists discovered significant loss of phytoplankton in many parts of the sea in recent decades. And in 2024, the planet lost the second largest number of forests in the entire history of observations. This is due to deforestation and increasingly severe wildfires that destroy ecosystems (higher temperatures and increasing droughts lead to catastrophic vegetation burnout), rather than smaller, less intense fires that naturally return them to new growth.
Overall, the loss of primary forests last year contributed to the equivalent of 8 percent of humanity's emissions. And 2025 has brought no relief. Canada is experiencing a historic wildfire season, with the second-largest area burned on record. Smoke was constantly pouring out – probably filled with toxic metals from mining operations — across the country and the United States, resulting in extremely unhealthy air quality.
This smoke starts another feedback loop as more carbon is released into the atmosphere, causing even more warming, which in turn worsens wildfires and produces more carbon. These additional emissions could help push other systems past the point of no return, further accelerating warming. This, in turn, could set the stage for a “greenhouse Earth” scenario, in which the planet continues to warm even as emissions are reduced. “We are approaching a chain reaction of feedback loops and tipping points, including melting ice sheets, thawing permafrost and forest die-offs, that could push the Earth toward a self-sustaining warming path,” said Ripple, who is also director of the Alliance of World Scientists, which focuses on the climate crisis. “The risk today is that even if emissions fall later, the climate system could continue to warm on its own. We could be dangerously close to triggering climate feedbacks that humanity cannot simply turn off.”
Indeed, the report notes that global warming may be accelerating. Ironically, part of this may be due to an environmental victory: Air quality rules reduce aerosol emissions, which improves public health. But these aerosols typically reflect some of the sun's energy back into space and help brighten clouds to reflect even more energy, so losing them leads to even more heating. “We see the planet warming faster than expected,” Ripple said. “Surface temperatures are rising more sharply than past trends would suggest.”
The cascading effects of this warming are getting worse every year, because with each warming the disasters become more deadly and costly. For example, the hotter the ocean gets, the more fuel there is for monster tropical cyclones: Hurricane Helen killed 251 people and caused $79 billion in damage last year, and early signs are that Hurricane Melissa caused catastrophic destruction as it rolled through Jamaica on Tuesday. In January, wildfires in Los Angeles caused at least $250 billion in damage. According to one group of researchers, the fires did not kill 30 people as official figures claim. but more like 440 when you consider those who could die from exposure to smoke. Additionally, last month researchers estimated that wildfire smoke already kills 40,000 Americans each year. which could rise to 71,000 by 2050 if greenhouse gas emissions remain high.
All of these results point to one conclusion: Without a radical course correction, we are on track to reach temperatures 3.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100, miles above the Paris Agreement goal of keeping temperatures below 2 degrees and ideally 1.5 degrees. carbon. “Our message is clear,” Ripple said. “We need to act boldly and act now. Every fraction of a degree matters. Delays only add to the suffering and costs.”
