Directors bring laughter, tears—and an international lens.
For decades, awards season conversations about diversity have revolved around the same stage: the face in front of the camera. Each Oscar cycle brings intense scrutiny to who is and isn't nominated in the acting categories. This year, the most important shift in cinematic recognition is happening behind the lens.
The Best Director race could feature one of the most globally inclusive, stylistically eclectic and diverse generational lineups in recent Academy history.
This isn't the industry's first foray into inclusivity. The 2010s belonged to a trio of Latin American auteurs—Alfonso Cuarón, Alejandro González Iñárritu and Guillermo del Toro—who collectively claimed five director's honors between 2013 and 2018. This year, however, the theme suggests something more democratic and less concentrated in a single narrative.
However, one number matters: Eight-time nominee Paul Thomas Anderson is scrutinizing the Civil War epic “One Battle After Another” that could give him a long-elusive victory.
“It will take something significant to disrupt the narrative that is being built around PTA,” says a veteran studio publicist. “Show voters what it's like to finally have the first black director, like Ryan Coogleror the first woman to win twice, as well as the first woman of color to win previously. How great would that be?
Chloe Zhao, the first woman of color to win best director for Nomadland, returns with a literary adaptation.Hamnet” And Coogler expands his genre-defying vision with the horror-filled Sinners.
Several women have a good chance of becoming contenders. Along with Zhao, Kathryn Bigelow, the first woman to win best director, returns in the nuclear war thriller House of Dynamite. Tunisian director Kaouther Ben Hania's heartbreaking film The Voice of Hind Rajab could make her the first Arab woman nominated for directing. Norway's Mona Fastvold also gets into the conversation with the Shaker musical The Testament of Ann Lee.
Other international authors could join the promising list: Iranian dissident Jafar Panahi's revenge tale It Was Just an Accident, Brazilian provocateur Kleber Mendonça Filho's The Secret Agent and South Korean master Park Chan-wook's drama No Other Choice could all make their way onto the list.
Genre diversity is another distinctive feature of the race. Besides The Sinners, James Cameron's Avatar: Fire and Ash is a blockbuster, and Jon M. Chu's Wicked: For Good proves that musicals can be prestige contenders. Yorgos Lanthimos' Bugonia and Del Toro's Frankenstein represent the type of formally daring productions that the Academy was once allergic to.
Then a generational change occurs. Josh Safdie aims to make a splash with the screwball comedy Marty Supreme and Oscar winner Timothée Chalamet.
“The field is tough. This is one of those years where I'd like to get 10 directing spots,” says the awards strategist.
While field expansion is not an option, the hallmark of this point is the elimination of tokenization. It's not one woman, it's not one director of color, it's not one international director in a certain space. It's a genuine diffusion of viewpoints that highlights the global nature of cinema—and the arbitrary boundaries that have long defined Oscar film.
Director of photography Lukasz Zal, director Chloe Zhao and actors Jesse Buckley and Paul Mescal on the set of Focus Features' film HAMNET.
Agata Grzybowska
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All suggested candidates below are in alphabetical order)
Best Film
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studio)
Frankenstein (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“It was just an accident” (Neon)
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) ***
Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
Ryan Coogler, The Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Chloe Zhao, Hamnet (Focus Features)
Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics) ***
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura, “Secret Agent” (Neon)
Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (Focus Features) ***
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Renata Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Emma Stone, Bugonia (Focus Features)
Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (Netflix)
Paul Mescal, Hamnet (Focus Features)
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon) ***
Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures) ***
Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (A24)
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Original script
Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics) – Robert Kaplow
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix) – Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer
“Marty Supreme” (A24) – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) – Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) – Ryan Coogler ***
Adapted Screenplay
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) – Will Tracy
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) – Chloe Zhao ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) – Paul Thomas Anderson
“Dream Train” (Netflix) – Clint Bentley and Greg Kvedar
Wake Dead: The Mystery of Knives Out (Netflix) – Rian Johnson
Casting
Bugonia (Focus Features) — Jennifer Venditti
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) – Nina Gold
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) – Cassandra Koulukoundis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) – Francine Meisler ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) – Tiffany Little Canfield and Bernard Telsey
Animated film
“Arco” (Neon)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
“Little Amelie, or the Character of the Rain” (GKids)
“Ne Zha 2” (A24)
Zootopia 2 (Walt Disney Pictures) ***
Production Design
Frankenstein (Netflix) ***
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Cinema
Frankenstein (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Dream Train” (Netflix)
Costume design
Frankenstein (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Film editing
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Makeup and hairstyle
Frankenstein (Netflix) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wrecking Machine” (A24)
“Weapon” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Sound
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studio)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Visual effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studio) ***
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
Frankenstein (Netflix)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Original score
Frankenstein (Netflix) – Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) – Max Richter
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) – Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) – Ludwig Göransson ***
The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures) – Daniel Bloomberg
Original song
“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios)
“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Ruthless (Greenwich Entertainment)
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“I Lied to You” from Sinners (Warner Bros.)
“Dressed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures)
Documentary
“Come See Me in a Good Light” (Apple Original Films)
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
“Put your soul on your hand and walk” (Kino Lorber)
“The Tale of Silyan” (National Geographic Documentary Films)
“2000 meters to Andreevka” (PBS)
International Feature
“It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon)
“Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
“Sirat” from Spain (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon) ***
“Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (Villa)
Top 5 predicted Oscar nominations (films): One Battle After Another and The Sinners (13); “Hamnet” (11); “Wicked: For Good” (10); Frankenstein (8); “Marty Supreme” and “Sentimental Value” (6)
Top 5 Projected Oscar Nomination Leaders (Studios): Warner Bros. (31); Netflix (16); Focus functions (15); Neon (13); A24 (8)
