Preseason rankings are a great insight into the upcoming college basketball season. But we can only measure what we see right now. And this lens is limited.
Over the next five months, however, some of the country's top teams, as well as a couple of mid-tier teams, will reach a mark that may be more indicative of a team's ceiling: 30 wins.
Why does this number matter?
Since the 2013-14 season—and we exclude the 2019-20 season, which ended without the NCAA Tournament, as well as the 2020-21 campaign, which had unbalanced schedules due to the pandemic—seven of the 10 national champions have won at least 28 games by the time they reach Selection Sunday. By the end of their respective seasons during this stretch, ninety-three teams had also reached the 30-win mark.
Teams can always get fired up and make the NCAA Tournament to turn a solid 24- or 25-win season into a miracle finale that ends with a national title. However, in recent college basketball history, most national champions have already flirted with 30 wins before hitting the net in the final game.
Yes, we are talking about Cinderellas. Many. But aside from Baylor's 28-win campaign during the pandemic in 2021, the last team to win a national title without 30 wins was Arizona (25-9) in 1997. Of course, conference schedules were generally shorter back then, but three other teams had 30 wins in the 1996-97 season: Kentucky, Kansas and Minnesota.
The following teams, in alphabetical order, have the talent, experience, depth and perhaps the schedule to make the desired 30 wins a reality this season.
Few coaches embrace the analytics-obsessed model that Kevin Young uses to best position his players and influence the game. As a result, the new college head coach had the best offense in America in the second half of the 2024-25 season. He has a potential No. 1 draft pick this season. AJ DybanzBaylor transfer Robert Wright III and first team All-Big 12 selection Richie Saunders In short, all the talent he needs to build another offensive machine in Provo and improve on last season's 26-win record.
AJ Dybanza and Darrin Peterson could have been the top pick in next summer's NBA draft, but fellow freshman Cameron Boozer – the projected No. 3 pick in June – may have the best statistical season among the trio. His 33 points (4-of-7 from 3) and 12 rebounds in the exhibition win over UCF could be a sign of things to come. With Boozer leading a loaded freshman class and returning veterans such as Isaiah Evans Overall, a 30-win season is within reach for the Blue Devils.
Boogie Fland (13.5 ppg, 5.1 apg at Arkansas last season) will be the starting point guard and former Princeton star. Xaivian Li will be the secondary handler on a Gators team that is contending for back-to-back national titles. These are two elite guards who need to be fed. Alex CondonAP Preseason All-American, and his teammates. The team that led the country with 36 wins a season ago could repeat that feat in the 2025/26 season.
Mark Few has won 30 games eight times in his career. He would certainly prefer a trip to the Final Four rather than a ninth 30-win season that falls short of that feat. However, before moving to the new Pac-12 next season, the Bulldogs could make short work of their WCC opponents. Graham Ike has all-American potential, Braden Huff may receive GCU's highest honors and transfer Tyon Grant-Foster was just granted preliminary injunction play one more year of college basketball.
At Big 12 Media Day, Kelvin Sampson said: Chris Cenac Jr.. (a projected lottery pick) and the other two rookies in the top 25 on his list “got lunch every day.” That's par for the course in Houston, which doesn't typically rely on young talent. However, these rookies have veterans like the 12 Defensive Players of the Year. Joseph Tagler as an anchor to keep Sampson's 30+ win streak going into season five.
Mark Pope has assembled a team with depth he didn't have a season ago. Injuries limited the potential of the Wildcats, who still made it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. With SEC Preseason Player of the Year Ove Ove Ove leader and former Pitt star Jaland Low By running the show at point guard, Kentucky can build on that accomplishment and reach 30-plus wins. Possible return of projected lottery pick Jayden Quintanswho tore his right cruciate ligament in February will improve those chances.
Mikel Brown Jr.. could be a top-five draft pick. He is also an elite defender who can take Pat Kelce's program to the next level. Kelce has done more with less: Over the past three seasons (two in Charleston), the Cardinals' second-year head coach has won at least 27 games. And this is his best composition. By the end of the season, Louisville had 30 wins, albeit in the tougher ACC.
Five of the Redhawks' top six scorers return behind Travis Steele, led by the first-team All-MAC guard. Peter Suder (13.7 points per game). This group won 25 games last season, ranking 15th in the country at 38.2% shooting from beyond the arc. The next step is possible.
The Cowboys lost four starters after winning 28 games and reaching the second round of the NCAA Tournament last season. Will Wade is also gone, but longtime assistant Bill Armstrong steps in to add to the 58 wins accumulated over the last two years. Why was McNeese able to expand this trend? Reigning Southland Player of the Year Javon Garcia (12.6 ppg) is ready to prove he is one of the best mid-majors in the country.
The last time Dusty May topped the 30-win mark, he led Florida Atlantic to the 2023 Final Four. In his second year in Ann Arbor, he rebooted—after the departure of first-round draft pick Danny Wolf—with another NBA prospect: Yaksel Lendeborgtwo-time American Conference Defensive Player of the Year. Getting to 30 wins in the Big Ten this season won't be easy, but the Wolverines will face Illinois, UCLA and Purdue just once in league play. Their ability to hit the target may also be affected by the team's performance at the busy Players Era Festival in Las Vegas.
Braden Smith was a unanimous AP first-team All-America selection and is the favorite to win the Wooden Award. The last time the Boilermakers had a Wooden Award winner, Zach Eady led the team to 34 wins and an appearance in the national title game. Smith could become the third player in four years to earn the honor at Purdue. And if Trey Kaufman-RennContinues growth (20.1 points per game last season), 30 or more wins possible.
Ejiofor's teeth could give St. John's back-to-back Big East Player of the Year honors. Last season, he was a major contributor to the team that captured the hearts of New York City and appeared on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon. It's not the impressive Big East of yesteryear, and this season Ejiofor will be surrounded by America's top transfer class, including the former Big East forward. Bryce Hopkinswho is fully healthy after an ACL injury in 2023, increasing this team's chances of winning 30 games and making another run in March.
Grant McCasland could have lost Darrion Williamsa talented forward who nearly helped Florida win the Elite Eight. But according to those who watched the Red Raiders practice, LeJuan Watts The 6-foot-6 versatile transfer from Washington could fill the void left by Williams' departure. Combine Watts with the return of the preseason All-American. JT Toppin and rising star Christian Andersonand 30 wins don't seem far-fetched for a team that won 28 last season.
Aidan MahaneyDreams of starring at UConn after a two-year stint as a first-team All-WCC player at St. Mary's were dashed. But he could be the best player in the Big West this season. He plays for a revamped UCSB team, in a league that had two 30-win teams last season (UC Irvine and UC San Diego). The gauchos could be next.
We can't expect too much from the exhibition. But the reigning Mountain West Player of the Year and Bruins rookie Donovan Dent finished 4-for-16 and UCLA still managed to beat a quality San Diego State team. Mick Cronin has reached 30 wins three times in his coaching career, and this group has a reasonable non-conference record to help get there. It will also have the benefit of hosting Illinois and Purdue in their only matchups against Big Ten opponents this season.
Dan Hurley's bid for a top three finish has been thwarted by a poor start to the 2024-25 season. Even then, his Huskies might have given Florida its toughest test yet on its way to winning the 2025 national title. Now, Alex Karaban returns for what appears to be its 11th season, Only the ball will continue his quiet ascent to the top guards in the conversation about America and the transfer from Georgia Silas Demary Jr.. (13.5 points per game) joins them. A third 30-win campaign under Hurley seems inevitable.
Takayo Siddle's side are down four starters but could be even better this season than they were in 27 wins in 2024-25. Improving under such circumstances is not an easy task for any team, but Nolan Hodge And Noah Ross — who played well in the Seahawks' first-round loss to Texas Tech — is back. Siddle also has a strong transfer group.
