By Week 14, the fantasy football playoffs become a weekly stress test. Line-ups are tightening, injuries are piling up, and matches are taking on enormous importance. These are the plays and fades that could tip your lineup toward the postseason this week.
Defenders
Start: Jared Goff, Lions vs. Cowboys
Goff had his best performance by a quarterback in Week 14. Dallas has struggled all season to contain rhythm passers who operate in the intermediate areas of the field, and Detroit's offense thrives there. Even if Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) is unable to suit up, Goff should have clear throwing windows to Jameson Williams, Jameer Gibbs and rookie Isaac Tesla throughout the game. Add in red zone stability and Detroit's willingness to lean on Goff in high-speed scenarios, and he has real QB1 upside in Week 14.
Other locks:
— Caleb Williams vs. Packers
– CJ Stroud vs Chiefs
— Lamar Jackson vs. Steelers
Avoid: Kirk Cousins, Falcons vs. Seahawks
Cousins has playmakers who can make plays in the right spots, but this game isn't one of them. Seattle's defense has tightened up significantly against traditional pocket passers, tightening the intermediate windows that Cousins depends on to stay in rhythm. Their revamped secondary forces quarterbacks to hold onto the ball longer than they want, and that's when Cousins' effectiveness plummets. Because Seattle is able to apply pressure without rushing, Atlanta may have a hard time keeping Cousins clean long enough to develop deeper routes. In a matchup that compresses his strengths and amplifies his weaknesses, Cousins is a shaky Week 14 performance that is best avoided if you have alternatives.
Running backs
Start: Kyle Monangai, Bears vs. Packers
Monangai has become Chicago's most reliable player early on, and Week 14 gives him one of the cleanest matchups on the schedule. Green Bay has struggled all season with physical downhill runners who create yards after contact, and Monangai thrives in that role. As the Bears try their best to support Caleb Williams and maintain offensive rhythm, Monangai projects both consistent volume and premium goal line ratios, even with the work of D'Andre Swift. He enters Week 14 as a strong RB2 with real touchdown upside.
Other locks:
– Bijan Robinson vs. Seahawks
— Kyren Williams vs. Cardinals
– Woody Marks of Chiefs
Avoid: Bam Knight, Cardinals vs. Rams
Knight retained his starting job in Arizona, but this is one of the toughest matchups he will face all season. The Rams' front end excels at blocking early runners, consistently winning at the point of attack and missing almost nothing after contact. Knight's fantasy value relies heavily on volume and short-area efficiency, but neither works well in a game where Arizona may have a hard time keeping things moving.
Without meaningful use of the passing game to maintain his position, Knight becomes a dart throw dependent on a touchdown. There is also a very real possibility that fellow RB Trey Benson will be activated before the Week 14 matchup. Knight – avoidance at week 14.
Wide Receivers
Start: Nico Collins, Texans vs. Chiefs
Collins remains Houston's most reliable perimeter option, and the Chiefs have had trouble with physical receivers who can win through contact. With C.J. Stroud pushing the ball into the intermediate windows and Houston likely needing to match Kansas City on speed, the combination of Collins' volume and matchup gives him the upside as a WR2 to a WR1 this week, even in a tough matchup.
Other locks:
— Jameson Williams vs. Cowboys
— Christian Watson vs. Bears
— Puka Nacua vs. Cardinals
Avoid: Josh Downs, Colts vs. Jaguars
Downs remains a tempting PPR option thanks to his expansive target share, but this matchup severely limits his value. Jacksonville has defended its position well all season, squeezing shots into the short middle and forcing targets out of bounds. Because Indianapolis distributes the ball unpredictably and Downs is rarely used in scoring situations, his floor becomes extremely fragile. Bench him in Week 14.
Narrow ends
Start: Darren Waller, Dolphins vs. Jets
Waller has been a big part of Miami's offense since returning from a five-week absence, and Week 14 is ideal for him. The Jets are tough on the perimeter but soft against athletic tight ends who can attack the seams and strain linebackers in space. This is where Waller does his best work. With the defense sold out to contain Miami's pace on the outside, Waller consistently finds single coverage and high-impact targets under and up the gridiron. In a matchup that directly impacts his skill set, he has strong TE1 upside in Week 14.
Other locks:
— Jake Ferguson vs. Lions
— Dalton Schultz vs. Chiefs
— Zach Ertz vs. Vikings
Avoid: Dallas Goedert, Eagles vs. Chargers
Goedert's talent is undeniable, but Philadelphia's passing attack has become increasingly focused on the perimeter. The Chargers often destroy tight end production by overcrowding intermediate windows, and with Goedert's weekly usage already inconsistent, this matchup adds to the volatility. If you have another option, you should use it.
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This column was provided to The Associated Press by RosterWatch, www.rosterwatch.com.
