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They say that everyone is a critic.
But when it comes to government shutdowns, everyone becomes an oracle.
Especially when you're trying to determine when it might end.
“[Democrats] waiting to elect [Zohran] Mamdani, communist, future mayor of the city New York. And then I believe things will go back to normal,” Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., said on FOX Business. “If we don’t reopen this week, I believe it will be sometime around Thanksgiving.”
KNOWING THE GOVERNMENT CLOSURE: IDENTIFYING THE POTENTIAL END
Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., also offered her own prediction.
“I believe this could be the week,” Capito said on FOX Business.
But Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, wasn't so sure.
“I don’t know what those projections are based on,” Cornyn said on Fox. “We continue to look for some rational behavior from the Democrats who shut down the government. But it was a stupid idea from the start. And since then the situation has not gotten better.”
Everyone is looking for a glimmer of hope right now. A glimmer of reason as to why the government shutdown will not deepen.
The Statue of Liberty atop the US Capitol can be seen in Washington on the 23rd day of the government shutdown on Thursday, October 23, 2025. (AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib)
But all this week represents is another opportunity. There have been a few turning points along the way, but nothing has given the opportunity to end the lockdown quite like this week.
Yes, emergency food aid for the country's neediest expired on Saturday. Air traffic is getting worse every hour. On Saturday, insurance premiums formally increased, which is why Democrats refused to fund the government at all.
But none of these events actually forced the parties to return to the negotiating table. That's why some see Tuesday's election as a potential turning point.
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Mamdani is the favorite to become New York's next mayor. Republicans now believe the election is the reason Democrats haven't abandoned government funding. They believe certain election results – a victory for the progressive Mamdani in New York coupled with what Republicans hope are defeats for moderate former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a Virginia Democrat running for governor of Virginia, and Rep. Mika Sherrill, a New Jersey candidate running for governor of New Jersey – will spur Democrats into action. Republicans believe such results will make Democrats see their party as out of touch with reality.
“I hope that tomorrow's elections will change the situation. Fundamental changes in all this,” said Speaker of the House Mike JohnsonR-La. “I hope that after everyone votes, they go into their room and make the calculation: 'Maybe, maybe we won't have to hold this line anymore.'
Republicans know that the shutdown will end sooner or later. But if it ends soon, they want to create the view that “Democrats have given up because of the election results.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, said he hopes Tuesday's election will be a “change.” (Eric Lee/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Keep in mind that Republicans have been predicting the end of the quarantine for five weeks.
“Cracks are starting to appear in the Democratic base,” Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, R-Wyo., said Oct. 1.
Republicans believed that Democrats would capitulate within days of the start of the quarantine.
This never happened.
Senate Republicans prepare long-term funding bill as government shutdown continues
The Republican Party then argued that the democrats simply held out until the No Kings rallies ended on October 19—by which time the Democrats would have “showed they were fighting.”
“They won't be able to reopen the government until this rally is over,” Johnson predicted on Fox on October 10.
There was nothing like that.
The GOP then amended its argument that Democrats were on the verge of conceding because federal workers were not getting paid. Especially air traffic controllers.
“We're getting to the point where the consequences of this are going to be very real,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said on Fox on Oct. 23.
This theory also failed.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., noted that “we are getting to the point where the consequences of this will become very real.” (Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images)
Republicans then pinned hopes on another missed paycheck coupled with flight delays, expiring SNAP benefits and a surge in health insurance premiums on Nov. 1.
“The Democrats will completely fall apart,” they predicted. Senator Ted CruzR-Texas on Fox this past weekend.
But nothing has changed.
“We will not support a partisan, Republican spending bill that continues to destroy the health care of the American people,” said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. “That was our position. Week after week after week, this will remain our position.”
Say what you want about the Democrats' strategy. But they didn't work out.
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Keep in mind that Republicans have been trying in vain since mid-September to convince Senate Democrats to pass a GOP spending plan that would only fund the government until November 21st.
“The issue is now almost moot,” Cornyn said. “What they’re going to do next, I don’t know.”
Thune stated that the 21st is now a date that is “lost.”
Sincerely, you asked House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-Louisiana, what a “kill date” for Republicans was to make another play call.
“Considering that November 21 has already arrived, this is not so much. [of] It’s time to resolve the differences,” Scalise responded.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-Louisiana, was asked about the “exact date” of his party's next gaming call. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
There is now talk that Republicans are preparing another short-term spending bill before January.
“The longer the runway, the better,” Thune said. “I’m certainly listening to our colleagues and trying to figure out where that landing point is going to be.”
But there is no guarantee that either chamber could pass such a measure, especially if Democrats' core demands go unheeded.
In his daily prayer for the opening of the Senate session, Senate Chaplain Barry Black implied that lawmakers needed help resolving the crisis – simply because they were no closer to a resolution than they were at the end of September.
“Inspire our legislators to come together and put out the fires of the government shutdown that have already ignited far more than expected,” Black prayed.
It's too unpredictable to make informed predictions about when the shutdown will end. But if you predict enough things, you'll eventually get something right.
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How about this forecast:
The shutdown will end.
In the end.
And that's really the only safe prediction anyone can make right now.
