2025 NFL playoffs is finally here and Wild Card Weekend is just a few days away. We've been breaking down the matches for a few days now, so there's room to make some educated guesses about what might happen.
Bookmakers in Las Vegas and especially in DraftKingsalready know what they expect, so they have distributed their points since the matches were completed. But of course, we know that things always don't go as expected. There are usually a few upsets in the playoffs, and the first round is no exception.
With that in mind, we wanted to take a quick look at the first round in terms of which teams are most likely to defy expectations and pull off an upset win. Below we rank them from 1 to 6 in order of likelihood.
Weekend Wild Card NFL Betting lines through Bookmaker DraftKings.
Saturday, 8:00 pm ET on Amazon Prime
Note: The odds for this game have now changed and the Packers have the advantage.
The two games played by the Packers and Bears this year were decided by 13 points, with each team winning at home by a touchdown. These are two incredibly evenly matched teams, each with an edge on one side of the ball or the other. If the Packers can avoid a loss against Chicago (they had one loss in every game in December), they have a pretty good chance to turn things around on the road.
2. Steelers (+3) vs. Texans
Monday, 8:15 PM ET on ESPN/ABC (Stream: Fubo — try it for free)
Pittsburgh plays this game at home on Monday night, and the Steelers have traditionally excelled in night island games during the Mike Tomlin era. The Texans have a tough defense that should be able to contain Pittsburgh even with DK Metcalfe are back in the lineup, but their offense isn't a machine that can score points easily against the Steelers. Plus, Pittsburgh seems to have some voodoo magic that helps them win games that no one expects the Steelers to win.
Sunday at 1:00 pm ET on CBS. (Stream enabled Paramount+)
The Jaguars are home underdogs against Josh Allen and Co., despite the fact that in the second half of the season they play as well as any team in the league. Jacksonville won eight games in a row to move 5–4 into third place in the conference. Trevor Lawrence finally took the step forward that many have been waiting for from him for many years.
Josh Allen's golden ticket: The AFC finally opens and history awaits
Douglas Clawson
The Bills have a suspect run defense that could allow Jacksonville to get the ball downfield and keep it out of Allen's hands if Travis Etienne may have one of its best games.
Sunday, 8:00 pm ET on NBC.
The Patriots have only played three games against winning teams this season, losing two of them. (Against the Steelers and Bills.) The Chargers have a questionable offensive line and can be inconsistent on offense, but their defense is one of the best in the league. NFL and may be able to slow down Drake Maye and Co. on the other side of the ball. If they manage to turn this into a low-scoring affair, they stand a chance of being disappointed. However, if the Pats start attacking, they may have a hard time keeping up.
Sunday, 4:30 pm ET on Fox (broadcast: Fubo — try it for free)
San Francisco has an explosive offense, but the team just scored three points. Seahawks in the regular season finals. The Niners are almost universally bad both offensively and defensively. We don't know yet if Trent Williams and/or Ricky Pearsall I will play this game. The defense is destroyed due to injuries not only Nick Bosa And Fred Warner out, but also players like Mikel Williams and now Tatum Bethuneamong others. The Eagles are inconsistent enough offensively that San Francisco could still pull off an upset win on the road, especially if Williams and Pearsall return to the lineup.
Saturday, 4:30 pm ET on Fox (stream: Fubo — try it for free)
Carolina has already pulled off one upset win over the Rams this season, so it's hard to place the Panthers on this list. But there's a reason Los Angeles has a 10-point advantage on the road: The Rams are a much better team than the Panthers, who went just 8-9 this year and needed a ton of help to even make the postseason. If Bryce Young plays the same as in the first game against the Rams, and if Matthew Stafford turns it over three more times and then the Panthers have a chance; but it's hard to imagine things going that way again.
