Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season was tough for the underdogs and the favorites ruled the roost, but it won't always be chaos. Can the underdogs get big wins and cover this week? Ahead of Week 7, SportsLine expert Jeff Hochman has identified two underdog betting strategies, highlighting one game for each criterion. If you want to post NFL Betting come Week 7, you'll have to see what Hochman has to say about these games.
Underdogs bye (66.0% ATS)
• Win percentage: 66.0% (33-17-2)
• Time frame: Since 2015
• Criteria: Home underdogs play before bye week
• Edge: Additional incentive for good work
Why does it work
The home underdogs heading into their bye week have been a safe bet, posting a 33-17-2 record against the spread (ATS) since 2015, good for a winning percentage of 66.0%. These teams often play with more urgency knowing they have extra time to regroup after the game. Many head coaches motivate their players by offering an extra day off if they win, and this extra incentive is often overlooked. rates line.
Week 7 Qualifier (Confidence Level 1–5)
Arizona Cardinals +6.5 vs. Green Bay Packers | Confidence: 4
With a 66.0% ATS odds for home underdogs heading into the bye week, this proven system shows the Cardinals' exceptional home record heading into the bye week. Arizona has an 8-3 record against the spread in games heading into the bye week, including 5-1 straight and 6-2 ATS at home. The low total increases the value of the underdog with the ability to qualify for the extended underdog system at 69.6% if the line moves to +7. Jaguars technically qualify but lose home field advantage by playing in London, making the Cardinals a clear play in Week 7.
The Packers present significant vulnerabilities as road favorites. Green Bay is 0-1-1 on the road this season, with its only road appearances coming in a 13-10 loss to Cleveland and a 40-40 tie at Dallas. For Packers fans, Green Bay has a 3-7 record against the spread in its last 10 games as a road favorite, illustrating its continued struggles in coverage outside of Lambeau Field.
The Cardinals are 2-4 but have shown struggle in close games, losing four straight games by nine points through Week 6. This pattern of competitive losses indicates that the team remains within the numbers (3-3 ATS), making them attractive as significant underdogs.
This score of 44 points suggests that the points are of great value. Low-scoring environments tend to favor underdogs as fewer possessions result in a closer edge in the game. Kyler Murray he is expected to return from a midfoot sprain after missing week six, but Marvin Harrison Jr.. questionable while in concussion protocol. His absence could increase that spot by half a point, as the public often overreacts to injuries to players in the professional position.
The NFL's stability ratings evaluate the reliability of teams over time, highlighting those that perform consistently versus those that have boom or bust potential. Arizona ranks first in consistent scoring, while Green Bay ranks 20th. Very surprising. I would expect a closer game than the line suggests.
Week 7 underdogs vs. winning teams (3-2 or better)
Win percentage: 63%
Sample size: Since 2005
Subset: 69% since 2015 (38-17-3)
Best Role: Home outsiders receive less than 30% of the money
Why does it work
Entering Week 7, underdogs facing opponents with a 60% winning percentage or better have covered the spread at a 63% rate since 2005, averaging a 1.9-point differential per game. This system has been particularly strong from 2015 to present, achieving an ATS record of 69% with 38 wins, 17 losses and 3 pushes. When the home team receives less than 30% of the money, the overall winning percentage increases to 66.3%.
Week 7 Qualifier (Confidence Level 1–5)
Minnesota Vikings +2.5 against Philadelphia Eagles | Confidence: 4
As of Tuesday afternoon, the Vikings had 28% of the money. This may change, but this choice remains strong using the underdog system mentioned above. JJ McCarthy trains on Tuesday; if he is active all week, he will be back in action.
Based on what we've seen between these two teams, that line doesn't make sense. I'm just thinking about the difference in schedule, with Minnesota ranked 30th and the Eagles ranked second. Minnesota has the best net yards per game (No. 11 to No. 26) and point differential (No. 8 to No. 19). Notably, both teams struggled to convert plays in third place (Philadelphia: 27th, Minnesota: 30th). However, the Eagles struggled against the third-ranked defense, finishing 26th, while the Vikings did well in second place. The Vikings rank higher in the nine most useful predictive metrics. Perhaps I'm missing something, but this line seems incorrect.
The betting market respects the Philly team too much. Super Bowl pedigree and a 4-2 record while underestimating Minnesota's defensive improvements and home-field advantage. Considering the Vikings are up 2.5 points at home against a flagging Eagles offense, this option has obvious value. The Eagles are in the middle of the division sandwich, having played Giants last Thursday and will play them again in week eight. Every team will be looking forward to facing the defending Super Bowl champions. Minnesota has a strong home field advantage and is ranked in the top five.
Kevin O'Connell has won two of three since the bye week, the only loss being by two points against Detroit last year in Minnesota. Giving aggressive head coaches two weeks to prepare is usually an advantage not factored into the roster. I made this Philadelphia 1 line with a healthy McCarthy at center. You also have my permission to play Vikings on the money line.
