NFL Week 17 Pick ‘Em: Playoff seeding on the line

It's the penultimate week of the 2025-26 NFL regular season and the playoff picture is all but set.

In terms of playoff implications, two games worth watching are Carolina Panthers vs. Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Miami Dolphins. If the Panthers win and the Buccaneers lose, the Panthers will be NFC South champions.

In addition, the fight for first place in both conferences continues.

Currently, the No. 5 team in the NFC, the Los Angeles Rams, has the best advantage. Super Bowl Odds +450, but the current No. 1 seed, the Seahawks, is +600.

With all that said, check out my predictions for each game below.

It looks like the Commanders will be without Marcus Mariota for this game, leaving it up to veteran journeyman Josh Johnson.

However, the team has yet to announce whether it will be him or Jeff Driskel, so that will be something to keep an eye on.

Either way, I don't think the Commanders can keep up with a Cowboys offense that averages 28.3 points per game (fifth).

FORECAST: Cowboys -7 (-110)

While the Lions have little chance of making the playoffs, it all starts with winning this game.

Vikings QB JJ McCarthy suffered a hand injury in Week 16, so Max Brosmer will be in shape.

No, the Lions defense isn't good enough to punt him four times like the Seahawks did in Week 13, but I'm worried about the Vikings moving the ball on offense.

FORECAST: Lions -6 (-110)

The Chiefs are now down two quarterbacks to torn ACLs, Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew, meaning second-year undrafted free agent Chris Oladokun will have to go up against one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

The Broncos held teams to 291.6 total yards (fourth) and 19.7 points (fifth) per game.

FORECAST: Broncos -13 (-110)

Chargers QB Justin Herbert played admirably against the Cowboys in Week 16, but the Texans' defense is the exact opposite of Dallas' defense.

The Texans are tied for sixth in pressures (228) and the Chargers are third (247). Additionally, the Texans are giving up 96.2 passing yards (fourth) and 178.1 passing yards (fifth) per game.

The Chargers have a good defense of their own, but the Texans' passing game will be the deciding factor against the Los Angeles offensive line.

FORECAST: Texans +2 (-110)

We might see Malik Willis (Packers) vs. Tyler Huntley (Ravens).

If that's the case, then I have more confidence in the Willis Packers. Replacing Jordan Love last week against the Chicago Bears, Willis completed 9 of 11 passes for 121 yards (11 yards per attempt) and a touchdown.

He wasn't afraid to push the ball downfield, which could work well against a Ravens defense that has allowed 12 passing touchdowns on throws with air yards of 10 yards or more.

FORECAST: Packers -2.5 (-115)

The Bengals performed admirably on the road in Miami in Week 16. Meanwhile, the Cardinals stumbled at home against the Atlanta Falcons.

Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. gave up potential touchdowns last week, but against a Bengals defense that is allowing 402.8 yards per game, worst in the league, this is the perfect game to get back on track.

This is a great opportunity for the Cardinals to bounce back.

FORECAST: Cardinals +7 (-105)

The Browns lost running back Quinshawn Judkins for the remainder of the season to an ankle/leg injury, limiting their running game and scoring potential.

They're facing a Steelers team that has been playing great offensively lately, scoring 27 or more points in each of their last three games.

A big part of that was their play with Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell, who will face a Browns defense that has allowed 163.3 yards per game in the last three games.

Steelers win.

FORECAST: Steelers -3.5 (-110)

The Titans are playing at home and have scored 24 or more points in two of their last three home games.

They are also averaging 27 points per game over their last three games, behind the Browns' 31, the San Francisco 49ers' 24 and the Chiefs' 26.

We'll have a fun matchup with a rookie QB and I'll score points for the Titans at home.

FORECAST: Titans +2.5 (-105)

The Colts' playoff chances are virtually nil after their loss to the 49ers. Their defense has been terrible, and now they play a Jaguars team led by QB Trevor Lawrence, who has not thrown an interception in his last four games and has thrown 12 touchdown passes in that time.

Additionally, we'll likely see Riley Leonard under center for the Colts, which I don't have high hopes for.

FORECAST: Jaguars -6.5 (-115)

The Buccaneers need a win here to keep their playoff hopes alive, but it will be a tougher game than expected.

Last week was Quinn Evers' first game, and while he threw two interceptions, 13.2 percent of his attempts were over 20 yards downfield and 26.3 percent were between 10 and 19 yards.

Combine his willingness to throw down the field with Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield, who is averaging less than 200 yards passing, 1.3 passing touchdowns and nearly an interception per game in the last four games, and the Dolphins could win or cover.

FORECAST: Dolphins +5.5 (-110)

The Patriots saw several players go on the injury report against the Ravens, including RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Kayshawn Boutte and DeMario Douglas, and two defensive backs, Joshua Farmer and Khiris Tonga.

Against the Jets with Brady Cook under center, I don't think the Patriots will rush them in this game.

The Patriots will win, but I expect some cover from the Jets.

FORECAST: Jets +13.5 (-110)

The Panthers are 5-1 against the spread when they are underdogs at home.

While the Seahawks have a phenomenal defense, their offense has been too inconsistent in my opinion. Yes, they scored 38 points last week, but QB Sam Darnold completed 64.7% of his passes for 270 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in overtime.

Meanwhile, Panthers QB Bryce Young has played well, throwing six passing touchdowns and zero interceptions over the last three games.

The Seahawks win, but the Panthers cover.

FORECAST: Panthers +7 (-105)

Both have lost nine in a row, and this game could determine the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Of course, the Raiders players and head coach Pete Carroll are trying to keep their jobs next season, while the current Giants coaching staff is hoping to show something that will hopefully stick around in some capacity for whoever the next head coach ends up being.

Generally speaking, I don't trust Raiders QB Geno Smith. I believe his time with them as the starting quarterback is coming to an end, and if they lose, the Raiders could be in line to select Indiana Hoosiers QB Fernando Mendoza at No. 1 overall.

FORECAST: Giants +1.5 (-110)

Both teams have poor defenses, with the Bills giving up 144.3 yards (30th) and the Eagles giving up 123.5 (21st) per game.

Bills RB James Cook has scored five touchdowns over the last two games. The Eagles will have a hard time slowing him down.

Additionally, the Bills have the best pass defense with 167.1 passing yards per game (per second).

It will be a close game, but the Bills win at home thanks to a field goal.

FORECAST: Banknotes -1.5 (-110)

Considering we have 51 points, I expect it to be something of a shootout.

The Bears may not bring back WR Rome Odunze, but I expect Luther Burden III to suit up, which will greatly help their passing game.

The 49ers could potentially be without TE George Kittle, who suffered an ankle injury in the win over the Colts.

FORECAST: Bears +3 (-115)

The Rams rank third in points allowed with 241, but the Falcons' offensive line has performed well this season, allowing 182 (27th).

Not only that, Falcons QB Kirk Cousins ​​throws the ball quickly, averaging 2.57 seconds per throw.

Against QBs with a throw time of 2.57 seconds or faster, the Rams are allowing a completion percentage of 69.7% with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions.

Additionally, when Cousins ​​stayed clean in the pocket, he completed 108 of 150 passes (72 percent).

With the Falcons and Rams offensive line having to worry about RB Bijan Robinson, the Falcons will keep it competitive enough to cover.

FORECAST: Falcons +8 (-110)

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