Game of the week
Seattle Seahawks (13-3) – San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
The final round of the regular season paid off and then some, with two knockouts deciding the final playoff spots. Can the Ravens get revenge on the Steelers and clinch the AFC North title? Can the Panthers hold their own against the Buccaneers and claim the NFC South? Will one of the winners make it past the first round next week?
What we can be more certain of is this: Once the dust settles in Tampa, the cream of the NFC will clash on the West Coast. Seattle will travel to the Bay Area to face San Francisco on Saturday night with the No. 1 seed on the line. Both opponents arrive hot on six-game winning streaks, desperate to avoid a loss that would forfeit the bye week and force a wild-card trip. The tension will be sky-high.
What the Seahawks need to do to win.
Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Don't even think about messing with a defense that's playing this well. Seattle is allowing 18.1 points per game this season, its second-lowest total of the season. NFLand their 44 sacks rank eighth overall. Brock Purdy will have to give up his furious passing game, and he may have to do it without future Hall of Fame left tackle Trent Williams, who injured his hamstring against the Bears. Without his main defender, Purdy could be throwing ready-to-pick passes all over the field.
In the meantime, the offender needs to relax. The 49ers have a habit of making their quarterbacks look like world champions without requiring any effort. Remind Sam Darnold that Cardinals kicker Jacoby Brissett set the NFL scoring record against San Francisco this season. Give the ball to Jackson Smith-Njigbe and let the points flow. Interceptions shouldn't be a major concern: While Darnold leads the league with 20 interceptions, the 49ers have only thrown six all season. It's easy to do.
What the 49ers need to do to win.
Stop running. Seattle has thrived with Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet as defenses remain wary of the deep threat of Smith-Njigba. The run defense is the only consistently reliable aspect of San Francisco's unit. In the season opener between these teams, the 49ers held Charbonnet to 47 yards on 12 attempts and Walker to 20 yards on 10 attempts. Seattle stalled and San Francisco emerged victorious 17-13.
Nick Bosa's last breath that day killed his late return to Lumen Field. Without him, however, the pass production was abysmal, with a league-worst 18 sacks. For context, the 31st-ranked Jets have eight more and the first-place Broncos have 46 more. Without pressure on the sometimes shaky Darnold, the 49ers must sell to put the game away. Forcing Seattle to put a No. 1 seed on Darnold's shoulders is a big task for a quarterback with a habit of hiding in his shell under the spotlight, as seen in last season's loss to the Rams.
Rising: Houston Texans
Houston strangely remains on the radar of Super Bowl contenders despite being the best team in the NFL and riding a league-best eight-game winning streak. How do the 11-5 Texans do it? A mixture of factors. Second place behind Jacksonville in the AFC South helps, although they could still clinch the division by beating the Colts if the Jaguars lose to the Titans. Their 3-5 start, marred by a poor offense, also lingers in the perception.
Will C.J. Stroud and his colleagues regress when the stakes rise? Maybe. But if Jacksonville and Houston both win on Sunday, they'll be in for a relatively benign trip to Baltimore or Pittsburgh. The Texans' ferocious defense should overwhelm any opponent, setting Stroud up for a third straight AFC Divisional Round appearance. With the battle-hardened experience of two previous losses—and a potential matchup in Denver where the defense rattled Bo Nix—Houston could be poised for its first conference championship appearance in franchise history.
Fall: Los Angeles Rams
The Christmas period has been brutal for the Rams. Consecutive losses dropped them from the top of the NFC West to sixth place. Their only way to avoid a tedious trip to Philadelphia in the wild card round is to beat the Cardinals and hope Seattle takes care of San Francisco.
Before Monday's disastrous loss to Atlanta, Matthew Stafford was the overwhelming favorite to win MVP. After three interceptions, the award is now safe in the hands of Drake May.
So what went wrong with Sean McVay's Rams? The crime has been solved. Wide receiver Davante Adams was noticeably absent in the red zone. Stafford's case for MVP was built on Adams' finishing with his one-on-one dominance. A streak of 11 touchdowns in six games contributed to a 5-1 midseason mark. His return can't come soon enough. Neither can left tackle Alaric Jackson and right guard Kevin Dotson. The constant shifts on offense left the Rams disunited, culminating in just the third first-half shutout of the McVay era since 2017. Unless reinforcements arrive quickly, this decline could continue right after the playoffs.
Race for pick #1
The raiders almost succeeded. Placing two star players on injured reserve resulted in the desired disastrous result against the Giants, leaving Las Vegas with a league-worst record of 2–14. A loss to another broken team, the Chiefs, would provide a better pick – but will Andy Reid really be outsmarted by a team actively trying to lose in what could be Travis Kelce's last game? Unlikely.
The race for second place is even more confusing. Four teams sit at 3-13: the Jets, Giants, Titans and Cardinals. Their opponents – the Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars and Rams – are three playoff teams and a furious Dallas team. Relief is unlikely because no one wants to rest. If all four lose, the draft order would move to the Giants at No. 2, the Jets at No. 3, the Titans at No. 4 and the Cardinals at No. 5 as scheduled.
If the season ended today…
AFK 1) Denver 13-3; 2) New England 13-3; 3) Jacksonville 12-4; 4) Pittsburgh 9-7; 5) Houston 11-5; 6) Los Angeles Chargers 11-5; 7) Buffalo 11-5. Bubble: Baltimore 8-8
NFC 1) Seattle 13-3; 2) Chicago 11-5; 3) Philadelphia 11-5; 4) Carolina 8-8; 5) San Francisco 12-4; 6) LA Rams 11-5; 7) Green Bay 9-6-1. Bubble: Tampa Bay 7-9
