NFL playoff picks, wild card game predictions: Bears win Packers grudge game, Bills hold off Jaguars originally appeared on Sports news. Add “Sports News” as Preferred source by clicking here.
Wild Card weekend will feature three matches where the road team is the favorite.
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Did you expect anything less? The home team was 5-1 last year. In the last two playoffs, the underdog is 3-3 going into the weekend.
This year, preference is given to three road teams. Rams are double-digit favorites in Carolina, the game that opens the NFL playoffs on Saturday. Buffalo is the favorite going into Jacksonville on Sunday. Texans have the advantage in Pittsburgh on Monday. Which home team – if any – will stage a so-called apart there?
The line in the Green Bay-Chicago game could also change in the week leading up to Saturday's primetime game. San Francisco travels to Philadelphia to face the final two NFC champions, and Chargers head to New England for Sunday's primetime game.
We have three winning road teams this weekend. Check out our regular season track record:
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Anti-spread: 127-142-3
Here are our picks for the Wild Card weekend:
MORE 2026 NFL PLAYOFFS:
NFL Picks and Wild Card Weekend Predictions
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Los Angeles Rams (-10) — Carolina Panthers
Saturday, 16:30, Fox
Isn't this too disrespectful? Panthers? Carolina beat Los Angeles 31–28 in Week 13. Bryce Young had 206 passing yards and three touchdowns to three different receivers in this game – and the defense took advantage of three turnovers. It was one of three games this season in which Los Angeles had multiple turnovers – and those games were 0-3. Los Angeles should learn from this experience, and Matthew Stafford should bring Davante Adams back this week to join Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams and the NFL's leading scorer. The Panthers were 3-1 as underdogs by seven or more points, a huge difference for a road postseason favorite. However, if the losses don't get in the way, Los Angeles will advance to the NFC divisional round.
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Choose: Rams 28, Panthers 16
MORE: How the Panthers won the NFC South despite losing to the Buccaneers
Green Bay Packers – Chicago Bears (-1)
Saturday, 20:00, Prime Video
Packers And Bears played two instant classics in the regular season. Chicago has a plus-5 turnover rate over its last four games, and Caleb Williams has helped lead the team to the playoffs. Green Bay is stuck on a four-game losing streak, but Jordan Love will return for the first time since leaving the Week 16 matchup with a concussion. Matt LaFleur needs to stay aggressive in the passing game – and if Love is on his toes, the Packers can absolutely win this game on the road. Chicago will build on the running game – and the Packers need to prove they can stop it. Since Micah Parsons' injury, they have allowed 198 yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry. It's an all-in game on both sides, and Green Bay could lead at halftime, but the Bears find a way late.
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Choose: Bears 24, Packers 21
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Buffalo Bills (-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS/Paramount+
Jacksonville will be a tough test for Accounts in a noisy atmosphere. Jaguars The franchise is 4-1 in playoff games at home, and Liam Cohen has done a masterful job as rookie coach Trevor Lawrence, who has 12 touchdowns and one interception in his last five starts. So why is Buffalo preferred? Josh Allen could make the playoffs despite recording a career-high 40 sacks this season. The Bills still have a play around James Cook that will prove vital on the road, and playoff experience matters. Allen is 0-4 in road playoff games, but three of those losses were against Kansas City. That big-game experience matters—and Buffalo finds its way into the highest-scoring game of the weekend.
Choose: Bills 31, Jaguars 28
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San Francisco 49ers – Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
Sunday, 16:30, Fox
Will the 49ers be healthy enough here? Trent Williams (hamstring) and Ricky Pearsall (ankle, knee) missed Week 18 and their status will need to be monitored ahead of their bout with Eagles. Brock Purdy's completion percentage in San Francisco's last four games was 73.4%. Will the 49ers defense hold up? Over the past two weeks, San Francisco has given up 145 yards per game to the Bears and Bears. Seahawksand Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley had to rest during the bye week. How important is this rush attack? Philadelphia was 4-0 S/U at home when they had 100 yards or more, and 1-3 S/U when they didn't get that number. Opposing teams were 2-1 when they rushed for 130 yards or more in Philadelphia. Can Christian McCaffrey have a monster game here?
Choose: Eagles 26, 49ers 23
MORE: The Eagles miss out on a chance to finish second in the NFC with a loss to the Commanders.
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Los Angeles Chargers – New England Patriots (-3.5)
Sunday, 8 p.m., NBC, Peacock
The Chargers have won four of their last five games — and they've done it with a defense that has forced 11 turnovers over that stretch. Los Angeles is 5-3 on the road this season, and this is Justin Herbert's chance to earn his first playoff win. Herbert has a 94.7 passer rating on the road this season, but has racked up 16 sacks over his last four starts. Injuries on the offensive line have taken their toll. This is Drake May's first playoff appearance and he is 5-3 with a 105.8 passer rating at Gillette Stadium. Weather won't be a factor and it will be a fun coaching matchup between Jim Harbaugh and Mike Vrabel. New England is 5-2 ATS when the team is favored by seven points or fewer.
Choose: Patriots 27, Chargers 20
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Houston Texans (-3) — Pittsburgh Steelers
Monday, 8:00 p.m., ABC/ESPN
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How will the Steelers take the momentum from their dramatic win over the Ravens in the regular season finale? DK Metcalf will return and TJ Watt (lungs) returned in Week 18. The Texans have scored 15.4 points on the road this season, with C.J. Stroud leading 2-0 in the wild card round. The Steelers went 1-2 as a home underdog this season before beating Baltimore. How will Rodgers attack a Houston passing defense that ranks sixth in the NFL and hasn't allowed more than 235 yards per game this season? Pittsburgh was 3-3 S/U when Rodgers had three or more sacks, and Daniel Hunter (15 sacks) and Will Anderson Jr. (12 sacks) were the most prolific sack tandem in the NFL this season.
Choose: Texans 23, Steelers 18
MORE: Can Aaron Rodgers put an end to a playoff win over the Texans?
