NFL picks: NFC South champion could be crowned in Week 17

The division crown seemed like nothing less than a dream for Carolina Panthers after a bad start to 2025 NFL season. With two games remaining on the schedule, the fate of the NFC South title is in their own hands.

Carolina (8-7) was routed 42-13 New England Patriots would fall to 1–3 in week four, and most were expecting an eighth straight sub-.500 campaign. But the Panthers defied the cynics in Dave Canales' second year as head coach and won six of their next nine contests to jump right into the NFC South race.

Their prospects were boosted by Tampa Bay Buccaneers'downward spiral. En route to a fifth straight division title after a 6-2 start, Tampa Bay (7-8) suffered a setback after returning from a bye, losing three straight before sweeping the lead. Arizona Cardinals 20–17 in Week 13, maintaining a half-game lead over Carolina.

The Panthers had a bye the following week and upon their return lost to New Orleans by a 20–17 decision, while the Buccaneers followed their victory with upsets against New Orleans and New Orleans. Atlanta Falconssetting up a 7-7 showdown in Charlotte in Week 16.

The contest was back-and-forth, with the lead changing hands four times before Tampa Bay settled for a 20-20 tie with a field goal early in the fourth quarter. But Carolina converted with 2:20 left and got the ball. Baker Mayfield into Panthers territory with 49 seconds left to seal the 23-20 triumph and take sole possession of first place in the division.

As a result, by Sunday night the Panthers could have their sixth NFC South title in their pocket and their first since 2015, and their rematch with the Buccaneers in the regular-season finale will be a close call. However, it won't be easy at all as Carolina hosts the leading conference Seattle Seahawks (12-3) as Tampa Bay visits the Downtrodden Miami Dolphins (6-9).

If the Panthers upset the Seahawks and the Buccaneers finish against the Dolphins with either a tie or their seventh loss in eight games, Carolina will clinch the unforeseen division crown after posting its first winning record since going 11-5 in 2017. A tie for the Panthers, who entered this year with seven wins over the previous two seasons, and a loss to Tampa Bay would also put the bow in the NFC South.

However, Seattle enters Week 17 with a winning streak that reached five games, with a stunning 38–37 overtime triumph over the Los Angeles Rams last Thursday and the NFC West title is within reach. Additionally, Carolina has won back-to-back games just once this season and hasn't done so since winning three in a row in Weeks 5-7.

A collapse like the one Tampa Bay is experiencing could cost head coach Todd Bowles his job if the team misses the postseason, despite leading the Bucs to a division title in each of his first three years at the helm.

But with the Dolphins suffering double-digit losses in each of their last two games after a four-game winning streak gave them false hope of a postseason berth, it's reasonable to assume the Buccaneers will right the ship and beat a rudderless Miami team that has head coach Mike McDaniel, who will likely be fired at the end of the season, as the No. 1 quarterback on the bench. Tua Tagovailoa before last week's 45-21 loss against Cincinnati Bengals.

Given the state of each team following Carolina's triumph last week, SportsLine's Inside the Lines team and its projection model currently give the Panthers the best chance to win the NFC South. But the team's ITL model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, suggests Carolina and Tampa Bay's prospects are close to even if both teams finish tied on Sunday.

The Panthers are just 4-9 against the Seahawks in the regular season and have lost four of their last five meetings, including a 37-27 loss to Seattle in 2023, in which Kenneth Walker III rushed for 97 yards and a pair of touchdowns for the home team. Carolina's defense will face a Seahawks team that ranks third in the NFL in scoring (29.5 points) and sixth in passing offense (238.1 yards), thanks in large part to Sam Darnoldwho ranks fifth in the league with 3,703 passing yards, and Jackson Smith-Njigbawho leads all players with 1,637 receiving yards.

Tampa Bay has won three straight and six of its last seven against Miami after losing four of its first five all-time. The Buccaneers' last win over the Dolphins came in 2021 when Mike Evans made six catches for 113 yards and caught two legendary Tom Brady five touchdowns in a 45-17 rout.

Seattle is a 7-point favorite against Carolina in their last matchup. NFL odds V DraftKingsand the model predicts a 27-20 Seahawks win. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are 5.5-point favorites at sportsbooks against the Dolphins, and the team's ITL model has Tampa Bay winning 28-25. Those results would set up a showdown between the Panthers and Bucs in Tampa for the NFC South title in Week 18, something no one could have predicted going into the season.