SportLine NFL Expert Jeff Hochman's system paid off in week 14: New Orleans Saints And Las Vegas Raiders covering the spread, and he hit one of two in Week 15. Houston Texans blew up Arizona Cardinalswhich gave 9.5 points, but Washington commanders win New York Giants as outsiders by 2.5 points. Hochman developed another system for Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season and identified two spots that players can target.
NFL teams recover from shutouts
- Win percentage: 31-12-4 ATS (72.1%)
- Sample size: Since 2011
- Criteria: Teams with zero points in the previous week
- Edge: Non-division games; 11 week or later
Why does this work?
This system takes into account teams that failed to score in the previous week and played a non-division team in week 11 or later. At this point, teams covered the spread 31 times in 47 attempts, winning by an average of 1.8 points. After being eliminated, teams typically make changes—such as adjusting their offensive strategy, changing their lineup, or focusing on fundamental aspects of practice. Players and coaches want to show that last week's scoreless game was just a bad day, so they come out fired up. Bookmakers usually ignore this, so the line may be disabled. With a winning percentage of 72.1%, it is one of the most profitable systems for samples of at least 40 games.
Week 16 Qualifiers
Cincinnati Bengals -4 in Miami Dolphins | Confidence: 3 out of 5
Cincinnati qualifies after getting manhandled by the Baltimore Ravens 24-0 as 3.5-point home underdogs. The Bengals' defense should be better in this matchup. Week 16 is deep into the season for a rookie arm. With Tua Tagovailoa benched, Quinn Ewers steps in at quarterback. The rookie faces defensive coordinator Al Golden, who knows he doesn't need complicated schemes. Golden just needs to change up the coverage enough to make Ewers hesitate and throw off his timing.
We are getting Joe Burrow laying less than a touchdown against a sub-500 team led by a rookie in his first career start. This price reflects Cincinnati's early-season defensive struggles rather than its current offensive potency, excluding last week's shutout. I like Burrow's chances to carve up a Miami secondary that ranks 27th in opponent passer rating. Burrow had a rough outing last week, posting just a 58.2 passer rating, so you can expect him to be fired up for a bounce-back performance. Meanwhile, the Dolphins look like a team that's headed for big changes once the season ends. DraftKings has the Bengals at -4 while most other books are at -4.5. If you like Cincinnati, now's the time to lock in the better number.
Las Vegas Raiders +14 at Houston Texans | Confidence: 2.5 out of 5
The Raiders' 31-0 loss last week was the first time in 19 years they've been shut out twice in one season — both times by the same 31-0 score, including a game against the Chiefs in October. Now, they face a Texans defense ranked first in scoring, allowing just 16.3 points per game. For a Raiders team that looks ready to finish out the season, this is a tough matchup. There's some hope for Raiders fans: Geno Smith, who didn't practice last week, could be back for Week 16. Head coach Pete Carroll said Smith has “a really good chance to be back” against the Texans. This matchup features one of the league's best defenses against a struggling offense, but if Smith returns, it's a boost for anyone relying on Brock Bowers or Ashton Jeanty in fantasy playoffs.
The Raiders have one real advantage: Maxx Crosby going up against Houston's weak offensive line (ranked 29th). If Crosby gets loose and picks up a few sacks, he can rattle C.J. Stroud, force bad throws and kill drives. This keeps the Texans' offensive output compressed rather than explosive. When the point spread is big, there's always a chance for a late, meaningless touchdown — especially since defenses often play soft coverage in the fourth quarter.
Houston is on a hot streak, winning six in a row (5-1 ATS) and taking eight of its past 10 (7-3 ATS). With all that momentum, most people are likely to bet against the Raiders, so the oddsmakers will want to see Vegas cover the spread. Often, the sharp move is to side with the oddsmakers rather than follow the crowd.
