“I will worry about my heart health as I get older.”
Doctors warn it may be too late.
Although the average entry age diagnosed with heart disease In the United States, typically in the mid-60s for men and the early 70s for women, factors such as high blood pressure, diabetes and bad cholesterol levels can begin years and sometimes decades earlier.
A new online cardiac risk calculator could help young people know whether they are likely to develop heart disease in about 30 years, according to a study published in the journal Journal of the American College of Cardiology on Monday. This is a significantly longer period compared to traditional shows, including Framingham Risk Calculator or ASCVD Plus Risk Assessorwhich measure the 10-year risk for people aged 40 and older.
“This tool was created to help young people understand their long-term risk for cardiovascular disease,” said senior study author Sadia Khan, Magerstadt Professor of Cardiovascular Epidemiology at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine. “We all procrastinate, but prioritizing your health needs to start today—and you can do it with this tool.”
Factors that can lead to heart problems, such as clogged arteries, can begin in childhood and get worse over time. studies have shown. However, relatively few people take proactive steps to protect themselves from heart disease, such as improving their diet or increasing their exercise.
Heart attack deaths are declining, thanks in large part to improved treatments, but heart disease still kills more people in the U.S. than any other cause, according to American Heart Association.
General Risk factors for developing cardiovascular diseases include smoking, physical inactivity and obesity, as well as family history.
Dr. Manesh Patel, chief of the Division of Cardiology at Duke University School of Medicine, said, “Young people today are exposed to more cardiovascular risk or disease than in the past.”
The Northwestern research team analyzed data from 2011 to 2020. National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveya nationally representative survey from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
They surveyed about 8,700 American adults who did not have cardiovascular disease at the time of participation in the survey. The average age of men was 44 years, and the average age of women was 45 years.
The scientists then calculated each person's risk of developing a heart attack, heart failure or stroke over the next 30 years, using data from the American Heart Association. PREVENTION equations (predicting the risk of cardiovascular diseases)– said Khan. The equations used a modeling approach to estimate the 30-year risk.
After entering general health indicators such as blood pressure, cholesterol, body mass index, smoking status, diabetes history and kidney function, the calculator displays the person's percentile ranking among 100 peers of the same age and gender.
In the study, researchers found that men had a higher long-term risk than women at all ages.
Dr. Deepak Bhatt, director of cardiology at Mount Sinai Fuster Hospital in New York, who was not involved in the study, sees potential in knowing the long-term risk of heart disease, “especially for younger people who are underserved by current risk measures.”
Calculating risk percentiles based on age and sex is a much more convenient way of communicating risk to patients, Bhatt said: “For example, telling someone they have an 8.9% risk is difficult to interpret in isolation, but telling a patient that their cardiac risk is higher than 90% of people their age and sex is easy to understand – it's clear that they are someone at very high risk.”
Age may be the leading cause of heart disease, but younger people should start protecting against it earlier, Patel said.
“Think of heart risk as retirement,” he said. “For every five minutes of exercise you do now, you can get a benefit when you really want it – like when you're 60 and want to chase your grandkids.”
