One month until NBA Trade Deadline On February 5, the NBA saw its first deal. Atlanta Hawks traded star point guard Trae Young To Washington Wizards For C.J. McCollum And Corey Kispertsources told ESPN's Shams Charania on Wednesday.
The Hawks' decision to move on from the four-time All-Star came midway through his eighth season in Atlanta as they instead decided to build around their young core. Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Mr. Okongwu And Zakkari Risaker.
Now that the Hawks and Wizards have officially opened trade season, we'll take a look at all sides of the NBA's biggest trades and break down the implications for all teams and players involved.
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Atlanta Hawks receive: G C.J. McCollum; F Corey Kispert
Washington Wizards receive: G Trae Young
Rating for Atlanta: B
Score for Washington: B
What this deal means for the Hawks: Less than five years ago, the Hawks advanced to the 2021 conference finals thanks to the stellar performance of Young, who averaged 28.8 points per game and 9.5 assists per game in the playoffs at age 22. It seemed like the start of success for Atlanta, which had just one key player over 27 years old. Instead, the Young-era Hawks had already reached their peak.
Atlanta, quickly eliminated from the playoffs in 2022 and 2023, never returned. The Hawks opened this season with high expectations after adding Nickeil Alexander-Walker And Kristaps Porzingisbut Atlanta went 2–8 in the 10 games Young played that season, leading to this franchise-altering trade.
The Hawks are better defensively with Young on the bench, and that's nothing new. This has been the case throughout his entire career. According to Glass Cleaningwhich filters out garbage time, 2022-23 is the only season in which the Hawks didn't score at least two more points per 100 more possessions when Young was on the court than on the bench.
Historically, that's been balanced by the tremendous boost Young brings to Atlanta's offense. Flipping those stats around, the 2023-24 season is the only season Atlanta hasn't scored at least one goal. five more points per 100 offensive possessions with Young on the floor. In fact, nothing has changed this season, despite the appearance Jalen Johnson as an All-Star. The Hawks score 9.2 more points per 100 possessions, and Young ranks in the 95th percentile league-wide.
The problem is twofold: Atlanta is better defensively with Young on the bench and much worse with him on the court.
The last factor is probably random noise. Based on the GeniusIQ Quantified Shooting Probability (qSP) score, which measures expected effective field goal percentage (eFG%) based on shot location and type, distance to nearby defenders and player ability, Hawks opponents are getting slightly better shots when Young is playing. Atlanta's defensive QSP went from 54% without Young, who would have ranked 12th in the league, to 56.6% with him. This will be 29th place, ahead of only New Orleans Pelicans.
However, the actual difference in shooting without Young is more than three times greater. The Hawks' opponents shoot 63% eFG% when Young is on the court, but only 54% when he's on the bench. The difference in shot quality is more consistent with Young's typical defensive impact, and the quality of the shots is more likely a fluke.
The more important factor going forward is that Atlanta has found a way to survive without Young. The Hawks' minus-0.4 net rating this season is their best with Young at the position at any point in his career. While this breakeven performance isn't good enough to avoid a play-in, remember that it doesn't bring any contribution from Young in the lineup. Replacing him with McCollum should help the Hawks be more competitive for the rest of the season.
Atlanta's offense continues to be league average while Johnson is on the floor. When the Hawks don't play either Johnson or Young, their offense drops to 107.8 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass, which ranks in the 7th percentile league-wide.
Starting guards Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels Provide enough playmakers along with Johnson at forward to keep Atlanta's offense going. But without a third capable player in the backcourt, the Hawks' secondary unit is struggling. McCollum needs to lift these groups up.
In particular, Atlanta will benefit from McCollum's ability to create his own shots. According to GeniusIQ, his 51.5% shooting percentage in the half court is neither a passable opportunity nor a returnable return. Mr. Okongwu (50.5%) is the only Hawks player with an eFG% above 46% on at least 50 of those attempts, and his throw rate is nearly identical to McCollum's.
Kispert could also play a role, although his skill set matches that of Atlanta's backup. Luke Kennard. Kispert is the more capable defender and younger than his 26 years. He is under contract until 2028-29, while Kennard has a one-year deal.
Looking to the future, this trade will give Atlanta the opportunity to reshape its roster. The Hawks no longer have a player making more than $31 million at any point in his contract. They could re-sign or extend McCollum (and perhaps Porzingis, depending on his health) and have enough flexibility to add to the roster this summer without threatening the luxury tax.
Long-term, Atlanta is betting on Johnson's development – a good bet on his All-Star debut – and the draft picks the team receives will provide the shot creation it needs. The Hawks have the top first-round pick this year. Milwaukee Bucks and the Pelicans thanks to their trade on draft night in 2025.
Only Indiana Pacers They have a worse record than the Pelicans, and the Bucks would also be in the lottery if the season ended today. Projections using ESPN's Basketball Power Index have Atlanta as the No. 1 pick in this trade in 15% of simulations.
If the Hawks can find another star in the draft, they have assembled enough quality defensive-minded role players to build around them better than Young could. It gives hope for a new era in Atlanta.
Of course, the Hawks were hoping they could get some value in a trade for Young. The fact that Atlanta was willing to make this deal without strings attached reflects how difficult the trade market is for max-level players who aren't inner-circle stars. Given that reality, the Hawks not having to include picks to incentivize Young's player selection for the 2026-27 season isn't too bad.
What this deal means for the Wizards: Since hiring Michael Winger and Will Dawkins to lead their front office in 2023, the Wizards have been one of the NBA's most patient teams, stockpiling young talent without a clear path to competing for a playoff spot. Trade for Youth is a course correction that signals Washington is entering a new phase of its recovery.
It would be interesting to know how much Wizards' recent success influenced this decision. Since starting the season 1-15, Washington is 9-10, including five wins in its last seven games. This might lead Wizards management to believe that simply finishing the season and getting another lottery pick is no longer a guarantee, because they owe their choice to New York Knicks if it goes beyond the top eight.
More broadly, Washington may be in the midst of supporting the development of its young talent, especially its rookies. Bilal Coulibaly, Kishon George And Alex Sarrall of them are 22 years old or younger – with experienced veterans this is appropriate. We've seen how it has accelerated progress Houston Rockets And Detroit Pistons in recent seasons.
I'm not sure Young is perfect for the role. He's an outstanding passer who led the NBA with 11.6 assists per game last season, but that came in the context of Young dominating the ball in a way that the veterans in Houston and Detroit did not.
Young's possession time this season is 5.7 minutes, according to GeniusIQ's NBA Advanced Stats tracking, more than McCollum's 4.5 in fewer minutes per game. He carried the ball about 41% of the time when the Hawks were on offense, compared to about 29% of the time when McCollum was with the Wizards. Fred VanVleet– added the Houston point guard at a similar stage – in his first season with the Rockets, he had about 35% of the ball.
Given Koulibaly, George and Sarr will likely end up in mostly off-ball roles, and that could work if they are okay with less possession. Young will be a more dangerous playmaker in pick-and-rolls than Washington has had since the reign of John Wall. The Wizards rank 25th in points per chance off pick-and-rolls this season. Young finished 12th in 2024-25 in points per chance among handlers with at least 1,000 screens.
Young's toughest fit is with a sophomore guard. Bub Carringtonwho played both with and without the ball during his NBA career. Young's arrival could push Carrington to the shooting guard position, where Washington already has a rookie lottery pick. Tre Johnson.
This is likely a profitable play for the Wizards. Despite his limitations on defense, Young is still a four-time All-Star thanks to the way he has elevated Atlanta offensively. Selecting Young as a player for $49 million through the 2026-27 season (perhaps in the context of a contract extension beyond next season) would not be a problem for a Washington team that was looking at more than $90 million in cap space until the Wizards retained their draft pick. They will still have room at the cap to either add supporting veterans or sign contracts to offset the draft.
The acquisition of Young now gives Washington three months to evaluate how he and the team's young players fit together before building around them this offseason. If working for Young was central to Washington's efforts to move toward competitiveness, I would be concerned. As a starting point in this process, this makes more sense.
