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Nature magazine, Britain's leading weekly science journal, has retracted a study predicting climate change will cost $38 trillion a year over the next 25 years after its methodology and stunning economic results came under scrutiny.
“Readers are cautioned that the reliability of the data and methodology presented in this manuscript is currently in question,” the editor's note on the Nov. 6 study said. “Once this matter is resolved, appropriate editorial action will be taken.”
The study was officially retracted on Wednesday, according to Nature's website.
The Economic Commitment to Climate Change study was originally published in April 2024. It attracted media attention with its findings that world economy could fall by 19% by 2050 due to lost productivity from climate change, and global economic output could fall by 62% by 2100.
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The study was conducted by researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Nature magazine, Britain's leading weekly science journal, has retracted a study predicting climate change will cost $38 trillion a year over the next 25 years. (FOX News Digital)
The study projects annual damages to be between $19 trillion and $59 trillion by 2050, with researchers citing annual damages of $38 trillion by 2049 as “average” estimates.
The study examined 1,600 regions around the world and drew on 40 years of data to determine “the effects of average temperatures on agricultural and labor productivity, temperature variability on agricultural productivity and health, and precipitation on agricultural productivity, labor outcomes, and flood damage.”
The findings have attracted media attention from environmentalists as yet another warning that climate change could eventually upend daily life on a global scale. The data was far more aggressive than previous studies, including a 2023 World Economic Forum study that predicted climate change would cost $1.7 trillion and $3.1 trillion annually by 2050, including “the cost of damage to infrastructure, property, agriculture and human health.”
A Nature article was retracted due to discrepancies in data for one country: Uzbekistan, according to the publication's rebuttal. Economists who had previously criticized the study found that under a high-emissions scenario, excluding Uzbekistan from the data set would reduce projected GDP losses in 2100 from about 62% to about 23%, bringing the estimate closer to the findings of earlier studies. The New York Times reported this.
According to new information, the original forecast of a 19% fall in global income has been revised to 17%.
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“The authors acknowledge that these changes are too significant to correct and would result in the retraction of the article,” the rebuttal states. “The authors intend to submit a revised version of the article for review. If and when it is published, this retraction note will be updated to include a link to the new publication.”
When contacted for comment on Friday, Nature provided Fox News Digital with a statement from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and a copy of the retraction statement.
The journal Nature has retracted a study predicting climate change would cost $38 trillion a year by 2049 after its methodology was criticized and allegations emerged that it was inflating the price. (Astrid Ricken/Getty Images)
“Following the publication of two critical papers entitled 'Questions Are Raising' and in conversation with the journal Nature, the authors of the study 'Economic Commitment to Climate Change' at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) have retracted the paper,” the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said in a statement. “In response to criticism, the authors made changes to constructively address the issues raised. Nature has determined that the changes exceed those included in the revision, and the authors will resubmit a new version of the paper for review.”
“The revised analysis shows that the economic costs of climate change through mid-century are substantial and outweigh the costs of mitigation. It is mainly driven by changes in temperature and disproportionately affects regions with low incomes and low historical emissions,” the research institute added.
The denial comes as the Trump administration denounces climate change and reverses the previous Biden administration's strict environmental policies, including oil and gas drilling, easing restrictions on gasoline-powered vehicles, and the president himself calls climate change a “scam.”
“In my opinion, this is the greatest scam ever perpetrated in the world,” the president said. Donald Trump This was announced at the UN General Assembly in New York in September. “All of these predictions made by the United Nations and many others, often for bad reasons, turned out to be wrong.”
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“They were created by stupid people who cost their countries a fortune and gave those same countries no chance to succeed,” he continued.
California's Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom traveled to Brazil for the COP30 world climate conference, touting his state's energy policies while the Trump administration skipped the event. (Mauro Pimentel/AFP via Getty Images)
US Democrats oppose Trump's climate messaging, including his longtime political foe California Gov. Gavin Newsom said at the COP30 climate summit in Brazil in November that Republicans were ceding the clean energy market to China.
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“The United States of America is as dumb as we want to be on this topic, but the state of California is not. And so we're going to assert ourselves, we're going to lean in and we're going to compete in this space,” Newsom said during the summit.
