National home sales fell in November with housing activity in ‘holding pattern,’ says CREA

National home sales fell 10.7 per cent in November compared with the same month last year as the Canadian Real Estate Association says activity has entered a holding pattern heading into 2026.

The association said 33,895 properties changed hands nationwide last month, with home sales also down 0.6 percent from October on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The actual median sales price of homes sold in November was $682,219, down two percent from a year earlier.

CREA senior economist Sean Cathcart said some sellers were making price concessions to secure deals before the end of 2025 after a mid-year rally.

“However, the Bank of Canada's clear signal that rates are now about as good as they are likely to get is the green light many fixed-rate borrowers have no doubt been waiting for, so we still believe activity will continue to rise next year,” he said in a press release.

The central bank kept its key rate steady at 2.25 percent last week, and economists expect it to remain unchanged for much of next year. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said the rate is at the level it should be to balance inflation and economic growth.

That would stop the downward move that began in June 2024 and aims to cut the key rate from five percent, including a one percentage point cut this year.

The CREA home price index, which is designed to reflect sales of typical homes, fell 0.4 percent between October and November and was down 3.7 percent year over year.

'Proof' homebuyers are holding back

But some property watchers are less convinced that a turnaround is likely in the near future.

NerdWallet Canada spokesman Clay Jarvis said November's drop in sales “is proof that it's not just interest rates holding Canadian homebuyers back.”

“The battle against inflation over the past two years has left Canadians exhausted and unsure of themselves. If their savings are depleted, where do their down payments come from?” he said in a statement.

“It’s hard to imagine 2026 being noticeably better than 2025 for home sales, especially if the cost of living is what’s holding buyers back.”

Marco Pedri, a Toronto-based broker with Shoreline Realty, said he believes it may take a while for demand to recover through the new year as concerns remain about rates, the job market and the overall economy.

“And even so, I think it won’t be a huge surge,” he said in an interview.

“I think we will remain stable for the foreseeable future. I don't think anyone needs to worry too much or be too careful about missing a boat or anything like that. I really don't think the recovery will happen until the end of 2026, maybe even 2027.”

First-time homebuyers have an even harder time finding the motivation to get out of the game, Pedri said.

He said some had been planning for years to make the move once prices finally fell but were still feeling hesitant now that the market had stabilized.

“With all this external pressure that this slowdown is causing, the psychological aspect of it is: Am I really making the right decision?”

Home prices likely to decline due to oversupply

TD economist Rishi Sondhi said home prices will likely continue to decline due to oversupply in British Columbia and Ontario. Meanwhile, tightening markets should fuel stronger price gains in other parts of the country.

“November was a soft month for home resales, with sales and prices down across Canada,” he said in a note.

“However, the decline in sales in November was small, and sales have been growing in six of the last eight months. “So we're not giving up just yet, believing sales in Canada will grow next year, supported by pent-up demand in British Columbia and Ontario, as well as some improvement in labor markets in 2026.”

The association said new listings were down 1.6% from the previous month.

There were 173,000 properties for sale across Canada at the end of November, up 8.5% from a year earlier but 2.5% below the long-term average for that time of year.