Met Office: 2026 will bring heat more than 1.4C above preindustrial levels | Climate crisis

Meteorologists predict heat will rise more than 1.4C above pre-industrial levels next year as fossil fuel pollution continues to scorch the Earth and contribute to extreme weather events.

The Met Office's central forecast is slightly lower than the 1.55C reached in 2024, the warmest year on record, but 2026 will be one of the four hottest years since 1850.

The carbon blanket choking the Earth has begun to threaten the stable conditions in which humanity has thrived, worsening extreme weather conditions and increasing the risk of catastrophic tipping points. The Met Office expects 2026 to be 1.34C to 1.58C hotter than the 6.50pm to 7pm average.

“Temperatures have likely exceeded 1.4C over the last three years and we expect 2026 to be the fourth year in a row that this will happen,” said Adam Skaife, a climate scientist at the Met Office who led the forecast. “Before this surge, the previous global temperature did not exceed 1.3°C.”

World leaders have vowed to limit global warming to 1.5C (2.7F) by the end of the century. landmark climate summit in Paris 10 years ago. Because the goal is measured as a 30-year average, it is still physically possible to achieve it despite individual months and years crossing that threshold.

“The first temporary warming of 1.5C occurred in 2024 and our forecast for 2026 suggests this is possible again,” said Nick Dunstone, a climate scientist at the Met Office. “This highlights how quickly we are now approaching the Paris Agreement target of 1.5C.”

Last week, EU scientists said 2025 is “coming.”almost certainly“will end as the second or third hottest year on record, confirming the World Meteorological Organization's November forecasts.”

The average global temperature from January to November was 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels, according to the EU's Copernicus Earth observation programme.

The anomalies were found to be identical to those recorded in 2023, the second-highest year on record. Last year the Met Office predicted temperatures in 2025 would be between 1.29C and 1.53C above pre-industrial levels.

Natural fluctuations, including warming El Niño conditions, led to higher global temperatures in 2023 and 2024, but were followed by mild cooling. Young woman conditions in 2025. The fluctuations come amid heat-trapping gas being pumped out of power plants, cars and boiler rooms, as well as the destruction of nature that can suck carbon out of the air.

Levels of carbon dioxide polluting the atmosphere soared to unprecedented levels last year – UN report found it in October. In addition to the relentless burning of fossil fuels and the effects of rampant wildfires, scientists fear that the Earth's natural “carbon sinks” may begin to break down.