Kim meeting speculation flares as Trump to visit South Korea

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SEOUL, South Korea — The last time U.S. President Donald Trump visited South Korea in 2019, he made a surprise trip to the North Korean border for an impromptu meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to restart stalled nuclear talks.

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Now that Trump is set to make his first trip to Asia since returning to office, speculation is rife that he may try to meet Kim again during his stop in South Korea. If it comes to fruition, it will be the first summit between the two countries since they last met in the Korean border village of Panmunjom in June 2019 and the fourth overall.

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Many experts say the prospects for another impromptu meeting this time are bleak, but predict Trump and Kim could eventually sit down for talks again in the coming months. Others dispute this, saying a quick resumption of diplomacy remains unlikely given how much has changed since 2019 – both the size of North Korea's nuclear program and its foreign policy leverage.

Talk of a new diplomacy

Trump has repeatedly expressed a desire to restore diplomacy with Kim, boasting of his relationship with the North Korean leader and calling him a “smart guy.” Ending his silence on Trump's actions, Kim last month said he had “good personal memories” of Trump and suggested he could return to talks if the US abandoned “its delusional obsession with denuclearization” of North Korea.

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Both Washington and Pyongyang have not hinted at any high-profile meeting ahead of the Oct. 31-Nov. 1st Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in South Korea. But in mid-October, South Korean Unification Minister Chung Dong-yong told lawmakers that Trump and Kim could meet again in Panmunjom at the demilitarized zone when the U.S. president visits South Korea after visiting Malaysia and Japan.

“We should see that the prospects for their meeting have increased,” said Ban Kil Ju, an associate professor at the Korean National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul. He cited the recent suspension of civilian tours to southern Panmunjom and Kim's comments about a possible resumption of talks.

If the meeting fails, Ban Ki-moon said, Kim would likely decide to resume diplomacy with Trump when he hosts a major ruling party conference expected in January.

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There have been no noticeable logistical preparations for the upcoming meeting between Kim and Trump, but observers note that the 2019 meeting was arranged just a day after Trump tweeted an unconventional invitation to the meeting.

More leverage for Kim

As his previous diplomacy with Trump fell apart amid disputes over U.S. sanctions on North Korea, Kim has accelerated the expansion of an arsenal of nuclear-capable missiles designed to strike the United States and its allies. He has also strengthened his diplomatic influence by aligning himself with Russia over its war in Ukraine and tightening relations with China.

Subsequently, Kim's sense of urgency in negotiations with the United States may be much weaker now than six years ago, although some experts argue that Kim will have to prepare for the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

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“Given the current situation, it seems difficult to imagine that Kim Jong Un will come for talks,” said Kim Tae-hyun, a professor at Seoul's Sungsil University.

With an expanded nuclear arsenal, stronger diplomatic support from Russia and China and easing sanctions, Kim has more leverage and clearly wants the US to recognize North Korea as a nuclear power, a status needed to lift UN sanctions. But that would contradict the long-standing position of the United States and its allies that sanctions will remain in place unless North Korea completely abandons its nuclear program.

“If the meeting with Kim Jong-un happens, Trump will brag about it and brag that he is the one who can also solve the problems of the Korean Peninsula, so he has something to gain… But will the US have anything significant to give Kim Jong-un in return?” said Chung Jin-young, former dean of the Graduate School of Pan-Pacific International Studies at South Korea's Kyung Hee University.

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Ko Yu-hwan, former president of South Korea's Institute for National Unification, said any meeting between Trump and Kim as part of the APEC meeting is unlikely to produce meaningful results. To get Kim back into talks, Ko said Trump will have to bring something enticing to the table this time.

North Korea's Evolving Threats

Even if they don't meet this month, Trump and Kim still have a chance to resume diplomacy later. Kim may view Trump as the rare American leader willing to make concessions such as nuclear-weapon status, while Trump believes a meeting with Kim will bring him a diplomatic achievement in the face of various domestic challenges.

There are both hopes and concerns about a potential dialogue between Trump and Kim.

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Some have called for a role for diplomacy in reducing the danger of North Korea's expanding nuclear arsenal. But others have warned against Trump agreeing to reward North Korea with broad sanctions relief in exchange for limited steps such as freezing its unfinished long-range missile program aimed at the United States. Such deals would leave North Korea with short-range nuclear missiles already built and aimed at South Korea.

Kim Taewoo, another former head of the Institute for National Unification, said “such a small deal” would still benefit South Korea's security as years of efforts to achieve complete denuclearization of North Korea have made little progress.

“If North Korea has the ability to strike the United States, is the United States free to meet its extended deterrence obligations if North Korea attacks South Korea?” This was stated by Kim Taewoo, referring to the US promise to mobilize all military potential to protect South Korea. The country does not have its own nuclear weapons and is under the so-called “nuclear umbrella” of the United States.

Chung, a former university dean, said North Korea has little chance of abandoning its nuclear program. But he said giving North Korea sanctions relief in exchange for partial steps toward denuclearization would fuel calls from South Korea and Japan for their countries to also be allowed to have nuclear weapons.

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