Welcome to the Big Cat Country Staff Roundtable!
Today we bring you the Week 11 matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Los Angeles Chargers at Everbank Stadium.
Question 1: Jacksonville blew the biggest lead in franchise history (19 points) in last week's loss to Houston. How did this game affect your expectations for the end of the season?
Dillon Appleman: At the start of the season it seemed like the fight could be improved, with penalties and general errors being the main complaints. However, as the season progressed, we saw more and more shortcomings from a personnel point of view that could not be corrected during the season. Sunday's disastrous failure only reinforced the idea that this squad is too flawed.
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Travis Holmes: To be honest, the Houston game didn't affect my season projections for the team, as I originally projected them to win nine to 10 games even if they got lucky with injuries. They've been extremely unlucky in this area over the past four weeks, which puts me within the nine-win range – just shy of the playoffs. I still see four more wins left on this chart, although none of them are guaranteed. If this is the outcome that materializes, fans may not appreciate the path to it. This would show clear progress and also raise questions about the future of this reconstruction.
Gus Logue: I used to expect Jacksonville to make the postseason, whether as a division winner or a Wild Card team, but now I'm not so sure. The offense may be “good enough” when Brenton Strange returns, but the defense doesn't seem to be able to stop anyone. Jacksonville has arguably the worst depth in the league at DE, DT and Safety. As Dillon noted, the Jaguars simply don't have the horses, and the young coaching staff could use more experience. I think the team is unlikely to miss the playoffs.
Henry Zimmer: Sunday's loss showed me that this team really isn't good enough to compete with the top teams. The Jags continue to lose to backup quarterbacks and teams that are easy for them to beat. If you can't be a bad team, why would anyone think you can beat good teams consistently?
Question 2: What match are you looking forward to?
Dillon: Justin Herbert vs. Devin Lloyd. Herbert has already more than doubled his interceptions (8) from last season (3) and has seven games left in his season. Some of them were when he targeted shallow routes in the middle of the field where Devin Lloyd has been making QBs pay all season. Recognizing his play in this area could be key to a defense desperate for a spark after a terrible performance a week ago.
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Travis: Oddly enough, the game I'm most looking forward to on Sunday isn't the Jaguars vs. rival. It's between Justin Herbert and his natural penchant for extending the play. Herbert LOVES holding the ball, looking to create explosiveness in the passing game. But after missing left tackle Joe Alta last week, he was sacked 5 times against Pittsburgh despite a career-low 2.21-second throw time (his only week under 2.6 seconds this year). For most of the season, he hovered around 3 seconds per throw, giving defenses more opportunities to pick off the athletic quarterback. With newly acquired Trevor Penning likely to start this week, will Herbert return to his normal pace, giving the Jacksonville frontman a rare opportunity to make a multi-sack game?
Gus: Josh Hines-Allen vs. whoever starts the Chargers at LT, be it Penning or Austin Deculus. JHA needs just half a sack to break the franchise's all-time record. This would be the perfect place for it. He's at Everbank Stadium playing the best quarterback with a strong lead in a must-win game. Do it, 41!
Henry: I'll be watching to see which defender outperforms the other. Trevor Lawrence had a terrible game in the playoffs, but came back to win that game. Beyond that, Herbert has been the best defensive player since they were both drafted. Hopefully Lawrence can win and silence some of the haters (like me) after the last few weeks.
Question 3: Who will be the biggest X-factor?
Dillon: I'll be answering this question for Trevor Lawrence until he finally becomes the X-factor for winning. Over the past four weeks, Lawrence has completed 58% of his passes with just 4 passing touchdowns. On the season, Trevor ranks second to last in both of these categories among QBs with 9+ games played this year. Only rookie Cam Ward has worse numbers. The excuses are many and somewhat understandable, but the team needs Lawrence to begin to overcome the negativity of others and find a way to get a win this week over the Chargers at home.
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Travis: For me it has to be right tackle Anton Harrison. At best, Harrison could play on Sunday as he has knee and ankle injuries. At worst, he risks missing the match due to not training on Wednesday and Thursday. With Walker Little likely needing an extra running back or tight end to slow down the rush on the other side, a limping or missing right tackle makes for a disastrous matchup when facing a Chargers defense that ranks seventh in the league with 29 sacks.
Gus: Chargers TE Oronde Gadsden II. The dynamic rookie tight end has effectively replaced Keenan Allen as Herbert's bottom safety and has become a more effective target than Tyler Warren, Harold Fannin Jr. and Colston Loveland. Gadsden is the real deal. That's bad news for Jacksonville, which ranks in the bottom five in catches, yards and touchdowns allowed to tight ends this season.
Henry: For me, the X-Factor this week has to be the Jacksonville coaches. Can Liam Cohen and his team regroup after Sunday's setback – and several poor performances beyond that – and win a game at home against a good team? Facing a Jim Harbaugh-coached team will be a good litmus test for Jacksonville coaches.
Prediction of the final result?
Dillon: Jaguars 17, Chargers 27
Travis: Jaguars 17, Chargers 27
Gus: Jaguars 23, Chargers 24
Henry: Jaguars 21, Chargers 35
What are your predictions for Week 11, Jaguars fans? Let us know in the comments!
