“This will all be done in the next fiscal year,” Trump said that day. “We'll end inflation, lower prices—we're already done with inflation—raise wages and give you the greatest economy in the history of the world. This is already happening. With our tax bill, the average household salary will be at least $5,000 more than it was just a couple of months ago.”
His ability to sell that message of renewal here and across the country is likely to go a long way in next year's midterm elections, which will determine whether Republicans maintain their trifecta of control in Washington – control of the White House and both houses of Congress – and Trump avoids significant control of his power. The congressional seat that Republican John James is leaving open to run for governor is one of three in the state that the Cook Political Report is assessed as potentially competitive.
The economic turnaround Trump predicted has not happened — at least not yet, residents of Warren and surrounding towns in Macomb County, once the home of “Reagan Democrats,” said in interviews at cafes and dog parks days before Thanksgiving.
Their sentiments match those of 63% of registered voters, including 30% of Republicans, who said in recent elections. NBC News national poll that Trump has not met their expectations on the cost of living and the economy.
While Democrats and Republicans in Michigan are divided on whether they expect the economy to improve next year, there is a general consensus that the dollar simply won't go as far as it should. In the lead-up to Black Friday and the Christmas shopping season, Trump supporters and critics were keenly aware of the cost of everything from houses to dog food.
“You know, people usually have a list of things they want to buy on Black Friday or Cyber Monday, but this… I'm not trying to spend too much money at the moment,” said Riduan Rafiq, 28, who stopped by Yemeni coffee shop Bin Castle on a break between three jobs. Rafik is married, but says he lives in the same house with his parents and four sisters.
“Working class people, middle class people, they have a hard time just paying their mortgage, buying groceries, going about their daily lives,” said Rafiq, who did not vote in last year's presidential election. He added that the pain was not felt immediately, but was the result of a number of factors, including a tight labor market and the cumulative effect of inflation. “Even though we can’t say it’s rising sharply, there is still a cost in terms of rising inflation year after year, which impacts people’s budgets, for example.”
Trump says he sees things differently.
“Our country is doing very well economically, better than ever before,” he said Tuesday during the annual White House turkey pardon ceremony.
Warren isn't even among the hardest-hit Michigan communities, where unemployment rates reached 6.9% in Saginaw, 6.8% in Flint, 6.3% in Battle Creek and 6.2% in Bay City in August — the latest month for which data is available — according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In the Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills metro area, the rate was 3.7% in August, just after it hit a four-year high of 4.9% in July.
The area, like many surrounding suburbs across the country, has seen significant change in recent decades. Once completely white city, Warren's demographics have changed significantly in the nearly 50 years since it became a flashpoint in the national debate over integration. White residents still make up the majority of the population, but only 54% To 61%according to different estimates.
Klotz noticed.
“Now things are changing, you know, we have different people,” he said. “They come here with all this money, they buy up all these places, because the land can't be bought anymore, you know. And they ended up jacking up the prices.”
Unemployment and underemployment are not a problem for retirees like Klotz and Ray Rosati, 63, who worked as truck drivers until they retired several years ago. But sticker shock is not.
