Melissa was approaches Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane Early Tuesday morning is the strongest hurricane yet – and was expected to bring “catastrophic winds, flash flooding and storm surge” to the island before moving into Cuba and the Bahamas, the National Hurricane Center in Miami warned.
Conditions in Jamaica deteriorated early Tuesday morning as the extremely dangerous Melissa approached.
But Melissa, the 13th storm of the Atlantic season, is not expected to have major impacts. impact on mainland United Statesbut this season it turns into the strongest Atlantic system.
Melissa's prognosis and path
The NHC's latest report early Tuesday morning showed maximum sustained winds of 175 mph. Hurricanes reach category 5 – peak Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale — when their wind speeds reached 157 mph.
Melissa's center was about 115 miles west-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 290 miles southwest of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, according to the hurricane center's latest update. Hurricane-force winds extended approximately 30 miles from the hurricane's center, and tropical storm-force winds extended out to 195 miles. The storm accelerated slightly and was moving north-northeast at 5 mph.
“Melissa's core is forecast to move over Jamaica today, across southeastern Cuba Wednesday morning, and through the southeastern or central Bahamas later Wednesday,” the hurricane center said.
“Some fluctuations in intensity are likely before Melissa makes landfall in Jamaica later today. However, Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane and will still be at hurricane strength as it passes through the southeastern Bahamas,” the center continued.
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Peak storm surge, accompanied by destructive waves, is forecast to reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level in Jamaica, 7 to 11 feet in Cuba and 4 to 6 feet in the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands.
The storm's extremely slow pace also increases the risk of devastating impacts, especially in Jamaica.
“The damage will be so deep because the storm is moving slowly,” said CBS News Philadelphia meteorologist Grant Gilmore. “As it crosses the island, it will move very slowly. … Every threat that a hurricane would bring to the island, it would all happen in Jamaica.”
Melissa could be the most powerful hurricane to ever hit Jamaica.
“The island's topography makes it even worse,” CBS News Philadelphia meteorologist Andrew Kozak said. explained. “Jamaica's mountains cause the air to rise, which causes more rain.”
The worst hurricane to hit Jamaica was Gilbert in 1988, Kozak said. It killed 45 people and caused more than $700 million in damage.
NOAA/National Hurricane Center 
Hurricane Advisories
A hurricane warning is in effect for Jamaica, the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo and Holguin, as well as the southeastern and central Bahamas.
The Turks and Caicos Islands are under a hurricane watch.
A tropical storm warning has been issued for Haiti, the Cuban province of Las Tunas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
The Guantanamo Bay naval base said it was removing “non-essential” US citizens from the island in groups ahead of severe weather conditions from Melissa.
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Precipitation forecasts
Melissa is expected to bring 15 to 30 inches of rain to parts of Jamaica and 6 to 12 inches to southern Hispaniola (the island is divided into Haiti and the Dominican Republic) through Wednesday, with 40 inches possible in some places, the hurricane center said. “Catastrophic floods and numerous landslides are likely,” the center emphasized.
In eastern Cuba, rainfall totals could reach 10 to 20 inches, with up to 25 inches in some places, Monday through Wednesday, which could lead to “life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with multiple landslides,” the center added.
Total rainfall is expected today and Wednesday across the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, leading to flash flooding.
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In the southeastern Bahamas, total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected Tuesday through Wednesday, leading to areas of flash flooding, forecasters said.
Atlantic Ocean temperatures are above average, worsening climate changeClimatologists say Melissa quickly developed into a severe storm. This leads to stronger winds, heavier rainfall and higher sea level rise, which will make storm surges more intense.
Preliminary data from Climate Centrala nonprofit group of scientists monitoring the effects of climate change suggests climate change has increased wind speeds in Melissa by 10 mph.
“Climate change is fundamentally changing our weather. This does not mean that every tropical cyclone will undergo rapid or ultra-fast intensification. But in our warmer world, it will continue to increase the likelihood of fast- and ultra-fast-intensifying storms,” Bernadette Woods Pluckey, chief meteorologist at Climate Central, told The Associated Press.
