The national redistricting battle sparked by President Donald Trump has cast a long shadow over the race for control of Congress next year — not only fundamentally changing the House battleground but creating a domino effect that moves new candidates to new seats, pushing longtime members of Congress to the exits and exposing deep political divisions in state parties across the country.
The fight is still playing out in courtrooms, in Trump's back rooms and on Trump's social media as Republicans and Democrats fiddle with district lines. Developments like this week's federal court ruling blocking Texas' new maps from taking effect (leaving the final decision to the Supreme Court) also show how much remains to be determined in the redistricting fight.
The battle began as Trump began pushing Texas Republicans to redraw district lines in hopes of winning up to five state seats for the party, and later began pressuring leaders in other GOP-controlled states.
The new lines add more Republicans to South Texas congressional districts represented by Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez, redraw two districts in Houston and Dallas in a way that will likely force incumbent Democrats to run primaries against each other, and redraw Austin to create one deep blue seat and one additional Republican-leaning seat that extends toward San Antonio.
But the fate of those plans hangs in the balance after a federal court blocked the map's implementation and called for the 2026 election to be held along the same lines as last year's election. The Supreme Court's final decision on whether to uphold the ruling will have a significant impact on the wave of races, starting with whether Democratic Austin Rep. Lloyd Doggett decides to retire.
There's also the question of whether the winner of the January special election to succeed the late Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner will have to immediately run against a longtime Democratic incumbent, and how Democratic Reps. Mark Veasey, Julie Johnson and Jasmine Crockett will handle a potentially significant vote redistribution in North Texas that could put one of them out of a job. There is already a plan for redistricting. Crockett mulls Senate proposal.
The Democrats' map of California retaliation—an equally crude partisan redrawing clearly aimed at undoing the Texas GOP's gains—has similar potential to upend the Republican faction there. GOP Reps. Doug LaMalfa, Darrell Issa, Kevin Kiely, Ken Calvert and David Valadao's districts are becoming significantly more vulnerable to a Democratic takeover, according to an analysis by University of Virginia Policy Center.
One early fallout: Calvert's decision to seek re-election in a neighboring district currently represented by fellow Republican Young Kim, which will likely trigger a costly primary between the two prominent incumbents. In an early show of strength, Kim has already announced plans to spend more than $3 million on advertising ahead of the 2026 primaries.
Both states also share another dynamic: State legislators who voted to draw new congressional lines are entering a new competitive battle for Congress.
In Texas, representatives of the Republican Party. Briscoe Kane And John Lujan announced their campaigns shortly after the new lines were adopted, seeking to run for new, predominantly Republican seats in the Houston and San Antonio areas. Others may also consider proposals, including state Rep. Katrina Pierson, who told CBS News Texas last month that she was “considering” redistricting proposal in North Texas.
There is less traffic in California as the lines are only a few weeks old. But one notable example is Democratic Sen. Mike McGuire, the party leader who faces term limits in a body that announced plans to fight LaMalfa.
Small changes to maps in other states also had a big ripple effect.
In Missouri, where there are opponents to the GOP-led redraw mobilization of petition campaign That could put the issue in the hands of voters in an upcoming special election, where Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's 30-year career in public life is in jeopardy after GOP lawmakers packed his district with Republican voters.
In Utah court decision to put a new card into effect Despite Republican protests, a new blue seat was created in the Salt Lake City area—one that could cause primaries focused on ideology as well as electabilityan unusual position for Utah's Democratic minority.
In Ohio compromise card solidified Democratic Rep. Amelia Sykes' seat in the battleground – in exchange for placing more Republican voters in districts held by Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Greg Landsman. Sykes's last GOP challenger, whom she narrowly defeated in 2024, ran again but dropped out of the 2026 campaign after the new map came out. blaming compromise for his decision.
And in North Carolina new lines of the republican legislature make Democratic Rep. Don Davis' re-election more difficult to climb, although he continues to signal he will insist on his desire to remain in office.
Meanwhile, as incumbents and challengers face the pressures and opportunities presented by the new maps, pressure on state legislatures to take part in redistricting fights on behalf of their national party has also caused significant tension among influential lawmakers on both sides of the party.
In Indiana lack of Republican support redistricting efforts have led to Trump criticized Republican Party leaders in the state, accusing them of “taking away the Republican majority in the House of Representatives, which is a VERY BIG DO” and saying he would support primary challenges against them. One of the Republican legislative leaders was swatting incident victim at home a few hours later.
In Maryland, Democratic Governor Wes Moore moving forward with redistricting commission — even as the state's top Senate Democrat continues to criticize the idea of redrawing the state's congressional map after the court struck down a Democratic plan to push more blue seats out of the state just a few years ago.
“What kind of country do we want to be? And who are we at this moment, when everything is so fragile and tense. Do we reflect different values to show the way forward as a nation, or are we fighting to the death one choice at a time?” State Senate President Bill Ferguson spoke to NBC News about why he is firmly resisting pressure to move forward with a Democratic-led redraw there.
And even in states where redistricting efforts have been successful, some lawmakers have issued warnings about their parties' behavior.
“There is nothing conservative about using our supermajority to grab more power,” Missouri GOP Rep. Bryant Wolfin, who voted against redrawing the election, said this summer before his party adopted the new rules.
