While it's impossible to predict the outcome of any free agent contract, the four-year, $60 million deal Toronto Blue Jays gave Kazuma Okamoto more uncertainty than most.
As successful as Okamoto was in the NPB, it's hard to say how his skills will translate at the major league level. Teams like the Blue Jays have more information on Japanese players than ever, but the sample size of success stories from NPB to MLB is still small enough that Okamoto is more guesswork than a traditional free agent with majors experience.
There were only 84 players of Japanese descent in MLB history, and of that group, 13 have played 1,000 or more games at that level. Only five position players (Ichiro Suzuki, Shohei Ohtani, Hideki Matsui, Seiya Suzuki and Nori Aoki) have a career bWAR of 10 or higher. Only three (Ohtani, Matsui and Ichiro) hit 50 or more home runs in MLB.
So when the Blue Jays signed Okamoto, who has 248 NPB home runs, to a $60 million contract, they did so with the expectation that he would become one of the most successful Japanese hitters and greatest hitters of all time. Based on his track record, this claim is not ridiculous, but it is quite vague.
To set more specific expectations, we can look at a combination of what Okamoto's contract says about his valuation of the Blue Jays and early projections.
Comparable results for the Okamoto contract
While Okamoto's contract is widely discussed as a $60 million deal, the roughly $10.8 million placement fee means the Blue Jays believe his value over four years will be just above $70 million.
It's an unusual term for the recent free agent market: No other player has signed a four-year contract since 2022, with the exception of import Koren Sung-Moon Song, who received a quarter of Okamoto's contract ($15 million) from the Padres in December.
Pitchers who have received as much money as the Blue Jays paid for Okamoto in recent years include Tanner Scott (four years, $72 million), Taijuan Walker (four years, $72 million) and Jameson Taillon (four years, $68 million).
To widen the net to multiple forwards, the list of players below represents position players who currently have contracts ranging from three to five years, paying between $15 million and $20 million:
There are a few quirks to a contract with this group of players, as Anthony Santander's deferred money could technically take him out of that AAV category, and Masataka Yoshida's fee increases his total value by just over $20 million. Technicalities aside, Okamoto is paid the same as the players on the list above, which mostly consists of solid starters but not stars.
Many of the contracts signed by this group prioritize power and offensive production over just the war's per-dollar efficiency. Most of Okamoto's value likely comes from his bat, but if he can hold down at third base, he could surpass most of these players in terms of overall value.
Using Cost Estimates to Analyze Expectations
We used similar contracts above to set a reasonable baseline expectation for Okamoto—or at least what the Blue Jays expect. Another way to achieve the same goal is to find players whose recent on-field performance is roughly in line with what Toronto paid for Okamoto.
The list below shows position players who have seen significant playing time in each season since 2022 and have earned between $65 million and $75 million, according to FanGraphs estimates, and how they arrived at that amount.
These comparisons tell us something slightly different than the ones above. This group represents reasonable production results from Okamoto based on his contract. Instead of the players he gets paid the same, these are the guys who actually fulfilled the terms of his contract.
It's a small difference and a slightly higher standard. Based on the Blue Jays' investment in Okamoto, they hope he can replicate the results of this group. Of course, the shape of this production will not suit some of these players. It's unlikely he'll have as much defensive value as Ryan McMahon or as less value as Teoscar Hernandez.
Jake Cronenworth is probably the best comparison example for how a successful Okamoto tenure might work. His combination of versatility, above-average offense and adequate defense has made him valuable to the San Diego Padres over the past few seasons. Okamoto is stylistically a completely different hitter who plans to produce more overall, but in terms of how his value could be distributed, this model makes some sense.
To find an opponent whose game is a little more similar to Okamoto's, it helps to look at some predictions.
By the start of the 2026 season, there will be more public projections for Okamoto than are currently available, but the first ones paint the picture of an effective power forward.
There is some disagreement over the form of Okamoto's attack, but the overall effectiveness is consistent and this is reflected in his reputation as a hard hitter who doesn't throw punches.
Using those projections—and his reputation—we've outlined benchmarks for hitters who have done well over the past four seasons, reflecting what Okamamoto could do.
The criteria are as follows:
• WRC+ between 110 and 117 with similar overall performance.
• ISO between 180 and 230 to be slightly below and above his projections and show a well above average but not elite hitter.
• AK% below 25 percent to keep Okamoto's contact abilities in mind.
The result is a list (which, perhaps unsurprisingly, includes some familiar names mentioned above):
Jarren Duran
Anthony Santander
Vinny Pasquantino
Jorge Polanco
Christian Walker
Jordan Westburg
Jackson Churio
Cody Bellinger
Brian Reynolds
Sean Murphy
Danny Jansen
Royce Lewis
Even with relatively stringent criteria, you get a fairly diverse group, from players who were among MLB's best players in their best seasons to relatively unremarkable starters like Pasquantino, who never topped 1.5 fWAR in any year.
The type of hitter that Okamoto currently is is one that will always have value in an MLB lineup, but he won't really become a driving force unless he brings noticeable value in defense (and/or base running).
If the Blue Jay rookie can play a decent third base, he has a path to providing value to his contract – and performing as an above-average starter – without having to exceed expectations at the plate. If he doesn't live up to that bar in the field, whether it's playing poorly at third, moving to first base first, or hanging out in the outfield, he'll have to be more of a great hitter than a good one.
It's far from impossible for one of NPB's biggest stars, but his contract and projections tell the story of a man ready to fit into Toronto's lineup rather than take it to the next level.
