Toronto Blue Jays begin their attempt to return to the ALCS at T-Mobile Park on Wednesday, knowing better than most clubs how important the ballgame environment is to results on the field.
Not only did Toronto's 54-27 home record finish second in the tournament during the regular season, but the team also had experience playing in extreme conditions that significantly impacted its campaign. The Blue Jays suffered a terrible offensive slump in early August and posted a 2–6 record in Colorado, giving up just one performance of more than four runs during that period.
A run in hitter's heaven at Coors Field allowed the team to score. historic 45 runs and regain some momentum and confidence during the dog days of summer. It's impossible to say exactly how useful this series was, but this victory had implications for the 2025 campaign, when the Blue Jays won the AL East by tiebreaker, and anyone who has watched this series closely knows that the park played a significant role in the team's offensive explosion.
When the Blue Jays face Seattle in Games 3, 4 and possibly 5, they won't be facing the direct opposite of Coors, which is undoubtedly the most extreme stadium in the majors, but it's not that far off.
According to Statcast Park Factors over the last three years, Coors Field's overall park ratio was 113, meaning it was 13 percent better than the average for hitters. There is no other place in this stratosphere, as the second largest park factor belongs to Fenway Park (104). T-Mobile Park is the biggest contrast. He has the lowest park ratio in the majors (91), and no other team has a rate lower than 97.
The Blue Jays are heading into one of the most twisted environments MLB has to offer. It's worth understanding how this will affect expectations for upcoming games and who is most likely to be affected.
There probably isn't a single pitcher on the Blue Jays roster who would be upset about the cross-continental trip to Seattle, but not all of them will benefit equally.
To receive the maximum performance boost from T-Mobile Park, pitchers must have at least one of the following characteristics:
1. Ball level below average: Ground balls are not the same everywhere, as some infields may be a little faster, but the parking effects are more significant for balls in the air.
2. Below average strikeout rate: Sometimes conditions such as cold weather can affect a pitcher's ability to hold the ball, and the thin air on Coors Island, for example, affects the flight of breaking balls. So in some cases, pitches can play a role in outs, but generally the effect is more on balls in play. Trey Yesavage's performance in Game 2 of the ALDS is an example of a game in which the stadium played a minimal role.
With these two factors in mind, we can select the pitchers on the ALCS roster who will most enjoy plying their trade in Seattle based on their regular season performance with the Blue Jays.
The Blue Jays don't have a pitcher ideally positioned to get the most out of their trip to Seattle, but that's not entirely surprising given that arms that can't generate groundballs or strikeouts are rarely (though not always) desirable.
What's especially interesting for Toronto is their plans for Game 4, as both Scherzer and Lauer are extreme flyball pitchers who would be well-suited to T-Mobile Park. Some combination of these two pitchers could string together some surprisingly effective innings in a way that they would likely struggle to do at home.
The idea of using Scherzer in particular is much more palatable in this context than it was against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. It was a terrible decision for a pitcher who had struggled with home runs and was giving up a .257/.305/.545 line to lefties.
Another pitcher who stands out in this group is Hoffman. While his strikeout rate has been good this season, that has become less true of late as he has dealt with fluctuating rates throughout the season (6.75 ppg/9 in September and 8.10 in the playoffs). Considering his biggest problem all season has been home runs, he may find that Seattle and its home run park factor of 92 help keep him out of trouble.
Little stands out in a different way. There may not be a pitcher in the majors less sensitive to field situations, given that he keeps the ball on the ground at an elite rate and gets a huge percentage of his outs through the K. As always, his success will likely depend on his ability to consistently throw strikes.
A trip to the West Coast won't be fun for a Toronto lineup that has been blown out of the gate this series, but as with the pitchers, we can clarify that.
Below is a chart showing the parking odds for each type of T-Mobile hit on each side of the table to give us an idea of which Blue Jays may be facing tough times.
Dalton Varsho is disappointed by the lack of triple potential, but outside of that extreme, it's unlikely to hurt the Blue Jays too much. What stands out here is that home runs are suppressed less than other hits, lefties tend to have it easier, and right-handed bats will have a hard time finding doubles.
If Bo Bichette were active, that would be bad news for him, but the Blue Jays have two other right-handed hitters with high doubles rates: Ernie Clement (35/23.2 percent of his total) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (34/19.8 percent of his total).
The overall left-right split is intriguing, but is unlikely to impact many lineup decisions since the Blue Jays have their core lineups more or less fixed. But that's useful context, not a good thing for a team whose best attacking stars are on the right side of the box.
Perhaps the most interesting thing to take away from this data is that while home runs may be difficult to hit, they may still be the best method of generating offense. With this knowledge, it makes sense to look at which Blue Jays home run hitters are most impacted by T-Mobile Park.
The table below shows all Toronto hitters on the ALCS roster, along with Statcast's projection of their career home runs if they played all of their games in Seattle (via xHR), to give an idea of who the park might impact the most and who the least.
These numbers paint a surprisingly generous picture: left-handers fare better than right-handers.
In many of these cases, the sample is small enough to avoid introducing too much information into the sample. For example, the power that Miles Straw possesses is unlikely to make a difference, and Andres Jimenez's home run remains unlikely. With hitters like George Springer and Varsho, the effect, while subtle, is noticeable and probably better reflects what's going on here.
While a large percentage of home runs leave any given park in the majors, Eugenio Suarez's Game 1 double is a good example of why this is important.
Another important factor here is temperature. Seattle forecast calls for moderate autumn weatherwhich is steeper than a typical regular season game and should make it difficult for hitters on both teams to clear the fence given stable positive correlation between runs and flyball length, affecting home runs and other offensive plays.
If the numbers in the table above look surprisingly optimistic for Blue Jays hitters, it's likely due to the oddity of the small sample size for some and the fact that they'll be playing in cooler-than-average conditions.
The overall takeaways from the park factor data remain the best when setting expectations for this lineup and understanding what we'll see in the coming days. Home runs will likely be a more important offensive tool than usual, as T-Mobile Park suppresses other types of hits more and right-handed hitters will likely have more trouble in Seattle's conditions than lefties.
