Last year's flu season was the worst in years in California, and state health officials are warning that this year could potentially be just as bad.
While disease prediction is not an exact science, there are some warning signs. In Asia, influenza quickly returned and quickly grew to epidemic proportions in Japan and Taiwan.
And in the US, some experts are sounding the alarm about a continued decline in flu vaccine use. There is also the possibility seasonal wave of COVID-19 – similar events did not occur last winter, but have been common since the pandemic – as well as the simultaneous increase respiratory syncytial virusor RSV.
California health officials previously forecast The respiratory virus season this fall and winter is expected to be similar to last year. If this is true, influenza will once again become the dominant virus causing hospitalizations compared to COVID-19 and RSV. During the winters of 2022-23 and 2023-24, COVID accounted for the majority of hospitalizations in California caused by respiratory viruses.
“Vaccinating people will be critical to controlling influenza,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco.
While flu, COVID and RSV levels are currently low in California, there are signs that respiratory virus season is beginning to approach as temperatures drop and people spend more time indoors.
Compared with numbers recorded in the summer, the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health saw an increase in the number of people reporting coughs, fevers, chills, aches, sore throats and runny noses, officials said, citing text-based health information. survey. The test positivity rate for rhinoviruses and enteroviruses, which commonly cause the common cold, is 19.87%. This is higher than the 4.2% rate for the virus that causes COVID-19; or flu – 1.04%.
According to Chin-Hong, doctors in San Francisco noted that the number of cold cases in the hospital had doubled. At some Bay Area workplaces, several employees have called out sick.
With rates of RSV, influenza and COVID-19 expected to rise by the holidays, “now is an ideal time to get immunized,” the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health said in an email.
The autumn and winter of 2024–2025 brought the country worst According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there has been a flu season for many years.
The number of children who died from the flu last season was the highest since the H1N1 swine flu pandemic in 2009-10, according to a recent study. report published in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Officials reported 280 confirmed deaths among children last season, and about 9 in 10 of those children were not vaccinated.
Health officials were particularly concerned about reports of a rare and severe complication affecting the brain called influenza-associated encephalopathy. IAEwhich was reported in 109 children nationally last season.
Three out of four children with IAE required intensive care. The average age of children with IAE was 5 years, and 55% of children diagnosed with this disease had no comorbidities.
Of those children, 37 had acute necrotizing encephalopathy, or ANE, a particularly severe form of the disease that causes rapid neurological deterioration. Two out of five children with ANE died.
Only one in six children with IAE eligible for vaccination received a flu shot, health officials said.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends that everyone 6 months of age and older get a flu shot. New this year: Officials are allowing people to place orders. FluMist to send them home. FluMist is approved for people ages 2 to 49 and is given as a nasal spray rather than an injection.
Doctors are concerned about declining flu vaccination rates. As of the end of April, only 49.2% of children had received a flu shot, down from the 53.4% who had done so at the same point in the previous season, according to preliminary national data. survey results. Both figures are significantly lower than in final flu vaccination rate for children eligible for vaccination in the 2019–2020 season, which amounted to 63.7%.
Among adults, 46.7% have gotten a flu shot, down slightly from 47.4% at the same time last season, according to preliminary survey results.
“Before the COVID-19 pandemic, influenza vaccination coverage was slowly increasing; coverage declined during and after the pandemic. Influenza vaccination rates have not returned to pre-pandemic levels,” CDC said.
Early data from the Southern Hemisphere suggests that the flu shot's effectiveness has been decent this season, reducing the risk of infection. hospitalization by 50%.
Asia is already reporting large numbers of flu cases.
“As for the flu, it is raging in Asia,” Chin-Hong said.
The flu is considered to be at epidemic level. Japan – where news reports say it was the second early start to the season in 20 years – and in Taiwan. Hong Kong health officials described the flu situation in September and October, before vaccinations became widely available, as follows:relatively serious”
The situation there could provide insight into how the flu season will play out in California and beyond.
In the San Francisco Bay Area, officials are also keeping a close eye on “high” wastewater levels. specific type of cold virus – enterovirus D68, or EV-D68. In rare cases, this virus can cause polio-like paralysis in children, called acute flaccid myelitis, or AFM. According to the data, high levels were recorded in large areas of Silicon Valley and San Francisco. WastewaterSCAN. High levels were also found in wastewater in western San Bernardino County, including Ontario, Chino and Fontana.
The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health has not yet detected an increase in EV-D68 signals, and no cases of AFM have been reported in Los Angeles and Orange counties this year.
The virus can be transmitted through the saliva and mucus of an infected person and is likely spread “when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or touches a surface that is then touched by others,” the CDC said.
Parents should call a doctor if their child has any symptoms AFMwhich include slurred speech, difficulty swallowing, difficulty moving the eyes, drooping eyelids, pain in the neck, back, arms or legs, weakness in the arms or legs, or drooping face.
To protect yourself from respiratory viruses, experts recommend getting vaccinated, washing your hands frequently, keeping rooms well ventilated, wearing face masks in crowded public places and staying away from sick people.
California Department of Public Health recommends updated COVID-19 vaccines for everyone 6 to 23 months, seniors 65 and older; and older children, adolescents and adults who either have risk factors for severe COVID disease or are in close contact with people at risk.
Children who have never had a COVID-19 vaccine should also get the vaccine, as should pregnant women and anyone else who wants a shot, the state said.
Immunization against RSV is recommended for everyone aged 75 years and older, children younger than 8 months, and pregnant women between 32 and 36 weeks of pregnancy.
Vaccinations are also recommended for adults ages 50 to 74 with risk factors, and children with risk factors ages 8 to 19 months. According to current recommendations, older adults who have previously been immunized against RSV generally do not require additional vaccination.
