The world is facing an “emerging crisis” of higher mortality rates among teenagers and young adults, according to a major study into the causes of death and disability worldwide.
Causes range from drug and alcohol use. suicide in North America to infectious diseases and injuries in sub-Saharan Africa, the researchers said, but warned that their findings should serve as a “wake-up call.”
The research also found that chronic conditions such as heart disease and diabetes now account for two thirds of all cases of ill health, and mental health problems are on the rise.
Researchers estimate that half the global burden of disease is preventable, driven by risks that can be reduced such as high blood pressure, air pollution, smoking and obesity.
Global Burden of Disease Study was conducted by a network of 16,500 scientists using more than 300,000 data sources. It is published in the Lancet and was presented at the World Health Summit in Berlin on Sunday.
It found that as of 2023, death rates had fallen overall in all 204 countries and territories, and global life expectancy had recovered from the decline caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
It is 76.3 years for women and 71.5 years for men, more than 20 years higher than in 1950 – although “sharp geographical differences” remain, ranging from 83 years in high-income regions to 62 years in sub-Saharan Africa.
However, the authors said they were particularly concerned about persistently high or rising mortality rates among adolescents and young adults.
In North America and parts of Latin America, the increase was driven by suicides and consumption drugs and alcohol.
The “very noticeable increase” among teenagers and young adults “certainly caught our attention as we looked at the data,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at Washington University School of Medicine.
He said the increase in mortality among young people, especially in North America, is “very much related to the increase in anxiety and depression among young people, especially women.” While much attention has been paid to the rise in mental disorders, there is still much debate about their causes, he said.
“Is this social media? [electronic] devices? Are these broader social trends in parenting? We know Covid has made things worse. I would say that there is a lot of controversy in psychiatric epidemiology and in general social commentary about the causes associated with mental health. And this is a problem for finding solutions.”
In sub-Saharan Africa, modeling showed that mortality among children aged five to 14 years since 1950 has been higher than previously thought, with infectious diseases and unintentional injuries among the causes of death.
For girls and women aged 15 to 29, the death rate was 61% higher than previously estimated, largely due to mortality during pregnancy or childbirthroad traffic injuries and meningitis.
Murray said: “The evidence presented in the Global Burden of Disease study is a wake-up call calling on governments and health leaders to respond quickly and strategically to the troubling trends that are changing public health needs.”
Dr Githinji Gitahi, chief executive of Amref Health Africa, said the 60% of people in Africa under the age of 25 represented “incredible potential”.
“Health is the most powerful investment in this, and comprehensive health care is key as we face the triple burden of cost of living, rising non-communicable diseases and infectious disease outbreaks, and climate change,” he said.
“Siled approaches to health are failing our young people. Diseases such as malaria, HIV and tuberculosis continue to claim too many young lives due to weak health systems, lack of care and lack of vaccines.
“At the same time, the exponential rise in non-communicable diseases among young Africans is not just a future threat; they are taking young lives every day, now. In urban settings, food production is under-regulated and nutrition education is inadequate, changing lifestyles and worldviews.”
He called for “stronger health systems based on real investments in public health that target young people.”
Emmanuela Gakidou, senior author and professor at IHME, warned that existing progress in low-income regions is at risk due to recent cuts in international aid. She said: “These countries rely on global health funding for vital primary health care, medicines and vaccines. Without this, the gap is sure to widen.”
The Global Burden of Disease study is partly funded by the Gates Foundation, a charity that also contributes to the Guardian's independent global development editorial team.
