One of the seemingly few profitable results early this NFL season was the Detroit Lions scoring at least 30 points. They did so by reeling off four straight wins to start 4–1 and enter the Super Bowl contenders.
However, the Lions have failed to top that mark in each of their last three games, including Sunday's 27-24 loss to Minnesota.
The NFL's best offense has led the Indianapolis Colts to a 7-1 start. Then on Sunday, they turned the ball over six times – more than their total in the previous eight games combined – in a stunning loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
And the Green Bay Packers, who have re-established themselves as Super Bowl contenders during a 5-1-1 start? Naturally, they suffered their first home loss of the season on Sunday to the mediocre Carolina Panthers.
What these three results have in common is that mid-season there seems to be a lack of pigskin dominance in the league, with teams switching between superior and sliding looks that vary depending on the week.
Starting this week, ESPN Football Power Index projected the Indianapolis Colts to finish with the highest win total in the league at 12.2. How low is this? The last time 12 wins were enough to lead the league was in 2014.
Another sign of the parity that has produced many good teams but without a dominant leader is that 12 teams entered Week 9 with positive expected points added ratings on both offense and defense. At the same time last year there were nine such teams; in the previous season – seven.
One potential factor is the introduction of “dynamic kickoff” in 2024, which became permanent before this season. The rule change encourages the kicking team to kick the game ball. Balls entering the end zone result in the offensive team taking the initiative at their own 35-yard line, giving the offense a significant advantage in their subsequent drive. The field goal distance is now just a few passes away.
Despite often having shorter fields, offenses in 2025 will average 328.9 yards per game, the league's lowest average since 2008, but will still score 2.14 points per game, the second-lowest in NFL history.
In Green Bay's case, Sunday's loss to a 31-point Panthers team couldn't simply be dismissed as a bad day. Star tight end Tucker Kraft was sidelined with a so-called knee injury that Packers coach Matt LaFleur said “doesn't look good.”
In Detroit, the Lions gained more yards, completed all three four-down conversions and held the ball three minutes longer, but lost to the Vikings after committing more turnovers and converting fewer red zone opportunities into points.
“This is probably one of the worst games we've played in a very long time,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said.
But the most baffling performance from a team that was previously at or near the top of the conference came in Indianapolis. Quarterback Daniel Jones revived his Colts career, leading the team to its most points in eight games since 1964. The Colts turned the ball over just four times in eight games, only for Jones to personally throw three interceptions and lose two fumbles against the Steelers.
Their record to this point was largely built on beating teams with losing records. So the last half of the season will be about finding out whether the Colts are the rare dominant team they seemed to be for two months or just one of a few good ones.
