Since Donald Trump became President of the United States again, he has been talking about seizing power in Greenland. He insisted that the US would control the islandcurrently autonomous territory of Denmarkand what if his proposals are rejected perhaps he will take Greenland by force. This idea is back back in the news early 2026 and drawing international condemnation.
When Congress held hearings on the importance of Greenland to the US in 2025, senators and expert witnesses focused on strategic value and its natural resources: critical minerals, fossil fuel And hydropower. No one mentioned the dangers, many of which are exacerbated by man-made climate change, that those seeking to own and develop the island will inevitably face.
This is imprudent because the Arctic climate change faster than anywhere else on Earth. This rapid warming further increases the already significant economic and personal risks for those who live, work and extract resources in Greenland and the rest of the planet.
I geologist who studies environmental history of Greenland and him ice coverincluding natural disasters And climate change. This knowledge is essential to understanding the risks that military and mining businesses face in Greenland today and in the future.
Greenland: a land of extremes
Greenland is not like the place where most people live. the climate is cold. Most of the year sea ice clings to the shore, making it inaccessible.
An ice sheet up to 2 miles thick covers more than 80% of the island. The population, approximately 56,000, lives on the island's steep, rocky coastline.
While researching my book “When the ice is gone“I discovered how Greenland's harsh climate and vast wilderness hampered past colonial efforts. During World War II, dozens of American military pilots disoriented by thick fog and out of fuelcrashed onto the ice sheet. An iceberg from Greenland sank the Titanic in 1912 and sank another 46 years later Danish ship specially designed to resist ice, killing all 95 people on board.
Now, exacerbated by climate change, natural disasters make resource extraction and military operations in Greenland uncertain, costly and potentially deadly.
Rock in motion
Greenland's coastal landscape is prone to landslides. The danger arises because people live on the coast and the rocks are not hidden under ice cover. In some places this stone contains important mineralssuch as gold, as well as other rare metals used in technology, including circuit boards and electric vehicle batteries.
Unstable slopes reflect how the ice sheet destroyed deep fjords when he was bigger. Now that the ice has melted, doesn't support anything the valley walls are almost vertical, and therefore they are collapsing.
In 2017, northwestern Greenland mountainside fell 3,000 feet into the deep waters of the fjord below. Moments later, a wave caused by a rockfall (tsunami) swept through nearby villages. Nuugaatsiaq and Illorsuit. Water filled with icebergs and sea ice tore houses off their foundations as people and sled dogs ran for their lives. By the time it was all over four people died, both villages lay in ruins..
Steep fjord walls around the island littered with the scars of past landslides. Evidence shows that at some point in the last 10,000 years, one of these slides dropped enough rocks into the water to fill 3.2 million Olympic swimming pools. In 2023, another landslide triggered a collapse. tsunami What splashed back and forth for nine days in a Greenland fjord.
Greenland does not have a network of paved roads. The only possible way to transport heavy equipment, minerals and fossil fuels is by sea. Docks, mines and buildings within tens of feet of sea level will be vulnerable to tsunamis caused by landslides.
Melting ice will be deadly and costly
Human-induced global warming, fueled by the burning of fossil fuels, is accelerating the melting of Greenland's ice sheets. It's melting threatening the island's infrastructure And indigenous lifestylewhich over millennia have adapted their transport and food systems to the presence of snow and ice. Record floods caused by heat melting ice sheetBridges that had stood for half a century were recently demolished.
As the climate warms, the permafrost—the frozen rocks and soil—that underlies the island is melting. This destabilizes the landscape, weakening of steep slopes And damage to critical infrastructure.
The melting of permafrost has already begun threatening a US military base across Greenland. When the ice melts and the earth settles under the runwaysCracks and craters form – a danger to aircraft. Buildings tilt as their foundations settle into the softened soil, including crucial radar installations that have scanned the skies for missiles and bombers since the 1950s.
Icebergs of Greenland may threaten oil rigs. As a warming climate speeds up the flow of Greenland's glaciers, they are calving more icebergs into the ocean. The problem is worse near Greenland, but some icebergs are drifting towards Canada. putting oil rigs at risk there. The ships are on guardready towing threatening icebergs away.
Government of Greenland banned fossil fuel drilling in 2021 out of concern for the environment. However, Trump and his allies remain committed to resuming off-island exploration. despite extremely high costs, less than stellar results from initial drilling and constant risk of icebergs.
As Greenland's ice melts and water flows into the ocean, sea levels are changing, but in ways that may not be obvious. Away from the island, sea levels rise about an inch every six years. But next to the ice sheet it is the land that rises. Gradually freed from the weight of ice, the rock beneath Greenland, long under the influence of a massive ice sheet, is being restored. What the rise is fast – more than 6 feet per century. Many Greenland ports may soon become too superficial for shipping.
Greenland's complex past and future
History clearly shows that many past military and colonial efforts failed in Greenland because they took little account of the island's harsh climate and dynamic ice sheet.
Climate change expelled Norse settlers from Greenland. 700 years ago. Explorers try to cross the ice sheet lost their lives to the cold. American bases built inside the ice sheetsuch as Camp Century were quickly destroyed due to deformation of the cover snow.
In the past, American attention in Greenland has been focused on short-term gains, with little regard for the future. Abandoned US military bases from World War II, scattered around the island and in need of cleaningare one example. Forced relocation Greenlandic Inuit communities during the Cold War is another example. I believe Trump's current demands for American control of the island to exploit its resources are also short-sighted.
However, when it comes to the habitability of the planet, I argue that greatest strategic and economic value Greenland for the world is not its location or its natural resources, but its ice. This white snow and ice reflect sunlightkeeping the Earth cool. And the ice cover located on land prevents water from entering the ocean. As the Greenland ice sheet melts, it will raise global sea leveluntil about 23 feet when all the ice is gone.
Climate-induced sea level rise is already inundating coastal regions around the world, including major economic centers. As this continues, estimates indicate that the damage will be only trillions of dollars. If Greenland's ice does not remain frozen, coastal flooding will force largest migration that humanity has ever witnessed. It is predicted that such changes will destabilize the situation. global economy And strategic world order.
These examples show that ignoring the risks of natural disasters and climate change in Greenland is leading to disaster, both locally and globally.
This article, originally published February 19, 2025, has been updated to reflect the new US focus on Greenland.
This article has been republished from Talka nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trusted analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. He was written by: Paul Birman, University of Vermont
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Paul Bierman receives funding from the US National Science Foundation and the University of Vermont Institute for the Environment.
