Gov’t shutdown could be longest ever, Speaker Johnson warns

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WASHINGTON — Republican Speaker Mike Johnson predicted Monday that the federal government shutdown could become the longest in history, saying he “will not negotiate” with Democrats until they pause on their health care demands and reopen.

Standing alone in the Capitol on the 13th day of the shutdown, the speaker said he did not know the details of the Trump administration's layoffs of thousands of federal workers. This is a highly unusual mass layoff that many see as a way to take advantage of the shutdown and limit the government's capacity. Vice President J.D. Vance warned of “painful” cuts ahead, even as workers' unions sue.

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“We are heading toward one of the longest shutdowns in American history,” Johnson said from Louisiana.

With no end in sight, the shutdown is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. The shutdown has brought routine government work to a standstill, the Smithsonian museums and other iconic cultural institutions have closed, and airports have faced flight disruptions that have added further uncertainty to an already fragile economy.

The House is not in legislative session, Johnson is refusing to call lawmakers back to Washington and the Senate, closed on Monday for a federal holiday, will return to work on Tuesday. But senators are stuck in a deadlock of failed votes as Democrats refuse to give in to their demands on health care.

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Johnson thanked President Donald Trump for securing payments to military personnel this week, eliminating one major issue that could have pushed the two sides to the negotiating table. The Coast Guard is also being paid, a senior administration official confirmed Monday. The official insisted on anonymity to discuss plans that have not yet been officially implemented.

At its core, the shutdown is a debate over health care policy, particularly over Affordable Care Act subsidies that are expiring for millions of Americans who rely on government assistance to buy their own health insurance policies through the Obamacare exchanges. Democrats are demanding an extension of the subsidies, while Republicans say the issue can be resolved later.

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With Congress and the White House deadlocked, some are looking at the end of the month as the next potential deadline for reopening the government.

That's when open enrollment for the health care program opens on November 1, and Americans face the prospect of skyrocketing premiums. The Kaiser Family Foundation has estimated that monthly costs will double if Congress does not extend subsidies that expire Dec. 31.

This is also when monthly paid government employees, including thousands of House aides, will go without pay.

The health care debate has dogged Congress since the Affordable Care Act became law under then-President Barack Obama in 2010.

The country experienced a 16-day government shutdown during Obama's presidency as Republicans attempted to repeal the 2013 Affordable Care Act.

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TRUMP TRIED TO 'REPEAL AND REPLACE'

Trump tried to “repeal and replace” the law commonly known as Obamacare during his first term in 2017, winning Republican majorities in the House and Senate. That attempt failed when then-Sen. John McCain memorably voted against this plan.

With 24 million people now enrolled in Obamacare, a record, Johnson said Monday that Republicans are unlikely to go down that path again, noting that he still has “post-traumatic stress disorder” from that unfortunate moment.

“Can we completely repeal and replace Obamacare? A lot of us are skeptical about that right now because the roots are so deep,” Johnson said.

The Republican speaker insists his party is ready to discuss health care with Democrats this fall, before the subsidies expire at the end of the year. But first, he said, Democrats must agree to reopen the government.

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The longest shutdown of Trump's first term over his demands for funds to build a wall on the US-Mexico border ended after 35 days in 2019.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration enjoys enormous discretion both in firing workers, prompting complaints from fellow Republicans and lawsuits from workers' unions, and in determining who gets paid.

This means that not only the military, but also other Trump administration priorities do not have to go unpaid, thanks to various other funding sources, as well as the billions provided through Trump's so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which has now become law.

Over the weekend, the Pentagon said it was able to tap $8 billion in unused research and development funds to pay military personnel. On Wednesday they risked missing their paychecks. But the Department of Education is among those hit hard, destroying special education, after-school programs and others.

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“The Administration may also decide to use mandatory funding provided in the 2025 Reconciliation Act or other mandatory funding sources to continue activities funded by these direct appropriations across agencies,” according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

CBO named the Department of Defense, the Treasury Department, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Office of Management and Budget among those that received specific funds under the law.

“Some funds from DoD direct appropriations under the 2025 Reconciliation Act may be used to pay active personnel during the shutdown, thereby reducing the number of excluded workers who will receive deferred compensation,” the CBO wrote in a letter responding to questions posed by Sen. Joni Ernst, Republican of Iowa.

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