Government shutdown looms again as January 31 deadline approaches

It won't get any better.

government closed this fall in a record 43 days. And if you thought you'd seen the worst of Congress, it really doesn't get any better when much of the federal government could shut down in the wee hours of January 31st.

That's true. Lawmakers have yet to address the very problems that prompted this year's shocking shutdown. Some of them are legislative. Some of them are related to politics. And the biggest problems are political.

Honestly, the political issues can be the most difficult.

Let's start with the most obvious ways to extinguish the winter crisis in Washington.

THE SHUTDOWN IS OVER, BUT THE BUDGET CRACK IN WASHINGTON IS JUST BEGINNING

The government reopening stopgap bill included three bills to fund major parts of the federal government through Sept. 30, 2027, the end of the current fiscal year. Congress has passed three of the 12 appropriations bills the government administers each year. These are the Legislative Branch of Congress, Military Construction/VA military construction programs, and the Department of Veterans Affairs and the Department of Agriculture. Even though these are three of the 12 annual spending bills, they are far from “a quarter” of all spending Congress appropriates each year. More than half of all spending controlled by Congress goes to Pentagon alone. Therefore, the House and Senate must pass all nine of the remaining nine annual bills to avoid a repeat this fall at 12:00:01 on Saturday, January 31st.

This is a difficult task. But leading appropriators on both sides of the aisle and on both sides of the Capitol say there is noticeable progress on these bills. Still, the synchronization in just over two months—with Congress out of session again this week and away for Christmas and New Year’s—seems like doom and gloom to some. Keep in mind that Congress was not in session in late July and August to consider some of the same bills. I wonder why things will be different now?

And we haven’t even gotten to the thorny issues that lurk in the individual bills themselves.

SHUTDOWN STORMS STRATEGISTS' DEBATE: WILL TRUMP AND GOP PAY A POLITICAL PRICE IN 2026?

Labor's bill, which funds the Department of Labor along with health and social services, is always a political thicket. Imagine how tough this bill will be this time, with both sides fighting over policies dictated by the Secretary of Health and Human Services. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.about vaccines and other controversial health claims. That's to say nothing of the core issue that prompted Democrats to oppose funding the government in September: extending Obamacare health subsidies.

Senate Majority Leader John ThuneR.S.D., now promises to hold a vote on extending these tax breaks to cover skyrocketing health care premiums. But no one knows what this package will look like. Some Republicans, such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., now support subsidies. She is now retiring in January. Other Republicans are looking for ways to reform the program. Democrats can prevent this. Yet other conservatives are using this as an opportunity to perhaps derail Obamacare, the bane of their existence since 2009.

This may be the greatest political irony of all. Imagine a world in which Republicans tried to repeal and replace Obamacare from 2009 to 2017 but stumbled at every step. Then, in 2025, Democrats refused to vote to fund the government in an attempt to support Obamacare—and that finally killed the program.

Wow.

Moreover, President Trump is threatening to veto any bill that expands Obamacare Subsidies.

Thus, we may already be on the verge of another government shutdown if Democrats do not abandon their tactics this fall.

Much of what we discussed concerns legislative and policy disputes that lawmakers must resolve before the end of January. But political problems overshadow these problems.

Imagine what happened this fall. Most Democrats refuse to fund the government. But a coalition of some Democrats and most Republicans is keeping the government afloat to prevent another shutdown.

The recriminations within the Democratic Party will be overwhelming. Expect an epic fight over Democrats' implementation of yet another strategy. There will be calls for the removal of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), although both have sided with the Democratic majority and withheld funding the government unless an agreement on health care money is reached.

GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN BECOME LONGEST IN US HISTORY WHILE DEMOCRATS WORK ON OBAMAKER

Democrats could find themselves embroiled in a civil war in the early days of 2026, just as they see opportunities to defeat Republicans in elections in Midterm exams 2026. On paper, Democrats have a very good chance of winning control of the House of Representatives. The Senate is a territory based on a map that heavily favors the Republican Party. But Democrats believe they could be within striking distance if they fill the seats of retiring Sens. Gary Peters, D-Mich., Jeanne Shaheen, D-Mich. Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., will have to win re-election in a competitive state. Democrats would then have to flip the seat of retiring North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, as well as flip Ohio and perhaps pull an armadillo out of the hat in Texas. It's not impossible. But it's very difficult.

Internecine infighting could confuse Democrats in this very narrow Senate path. It's the same with the House. Democrats need to appear united heading into the 2026 midterm elections. But arguing over the suspension of government No. 1 or the closure of government No. 2 does not bring any benefit to the party.

Republicans are not immune to the difficult politics of 2026 that come with lockdowns.

Democrats pulled the plug on health care this fall. And if Republicans don't bow to Democrats' demands for an extension of health care subsidies, the GOP could find itself upside down with voters on the topic. If so, Democrats may not have won the government shutdown battle. But perhaps they will win the war: the 2026 midterm elections.

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That's why few breathed after Congress voted to reopen the government last week. Anyone calling Capitol Hill knows that the situation probably won't improve in the next nine weeks.

And as terrible as this fall has been, the situation can only get worse.