Washington is entering its fourth week of the federal government shutdown with no apparent sign that it will end anytime soon.
Senate Democrats are stubborn, insisting that any government funding bill include an extension of expiring tax breaks to offset soaring health insurance costs. Republicans continue to refuse to negotiate while the government remains closed. President Donald Trump and his administration sought to maximize leverage with Democratic lawmakers.
“We're in complete standby mode,” said West Virginia Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, a member of the Senate GOP leadership.
Why did we write this
Republicans and Democrats are not negotiating to end the week-long government shutdown as its effects are felt more widely. However, some pressure points for each side are emerging.
Monday marks the 20th day of closure. The second longest in US history lasted 21 days.
The longest stretch on record stretched to 35 days in late 2018 and early 2019, fueled by President Trump's demands for money to be included in a bill to fund construction of a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Lawmakers in both parties openly speculate that the shutdown could last even longer.
Trump agreed to reopen the government in 2019 amid falling poll numbers. Republicans abandoned their 2013 attempt to force a repeal of the Affordable Care Act with a 16-day shutdown for the same reasons. The GOP shutdown in the House of Representatives in the mid-1990s, which was about to eclipse the current one, also ended when public sentiment turned against Republicans.
But now neither side feels like it is losing this political fight. Recent Associated Press/NORC poll found that 58% of Americans blame the shutdown on President Trump and Republicans in Congress, while 54% blame Democrats.
There has also been little movement on the question of which party voters plan to support in next year's midterm elections. On Oct. 1, the first day of the shutdown, Democrats led by an average of 3 percentage points in polls asking people which party they planned to vote for. Today they maintain the same leadership.
Democrats felt far more pressure from their constituents to do something, anything, to resist the Trump administration as it prepared to shut down the economy. That hasn't changed.
Previous federal shutdowns have dominated the headlines. But the event was overshadowed by other major news, including President Trump's crackdown on immigration, his attempt to station National Guard members in some U.S. cities and a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Given that both sides are entrenched and this shutdown has generated less press coverage than previous ones, it remains an open question what real developments might break through and force one side or the other to the negotiating table.
The longer shutdowns drag on, the more painful they become for everyone as parts of the government that could distribute money run out of reserve resources. Senator Capito says that could soon happen with programs like Head Start, which offers services to low-income children and families.
Open enrollment for private health insurance begins November 1, and letters are already being sent out to Americans informing them of premium increases. Democrats say that as more people receive notice that their health care premiums will rise sharply next year, it will make the problem worse.
“The pressure on this place is going to be very intense once open enrollment starts and people are coming to terms with the fact that they could go out of business because of these insurance increases,” Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut told the Monitor.
If subsidies introduced at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic are not extended, average individual premium payments will more than double, from $888 to $1,904 per year. in accordance with non-partisan KFF. Nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that 4 million people will lose health insurance if these subsidies are not extended.
The results of the Virginia and New Jersey elections in early November marked another moment when shutdown politics could force one party or another to reconsider its position. Gubernatorial elections in these states are key off-year events, and if one side performs much worse than expected, it could change its thinking.
Beyond that, airport staffing issues are leading to longer and longer delays, making the Thanksgiving holiday—one of the busiest travel times of the year—another potential tipping point.
The Trump administration appears intent on maximizing the damage from the shutdown for Democratic voters (and lawmakers) and minimizing it for Republicans.
“Democrats are being destroyed by the shutdown because we are shutting down programs that are Democratic programs that we opposed … and in many cases they will never come back,” Mr. Trump said last week.
The administration has already halted infrastructure projects in Democratic districts and states while promising to lay off up to 10,000 federal workers it views as Democratic sympathizers. Last week, a federal judge ordered a temporary halt to at least some of the layoffs.
On Friday, as part of the latest round of cuts, Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vaught announced that the Army Corps of Engineers would “immediately pause more than $11 billion in lower-priority projects and consider canceling them, including projects in New York, San Francisco, Boston and Baltimore”—all heavily Democratic cities. parties. On the same day, the National Nuclear Security Administration—the agency that helps the Pentagon maintain and secure the U.S. nuclear arsenal— announced that starting this week the company will lay off nearly 80% of its 1,800 employees and contractors.
However, active-duty US military personnel appear to have been spared, at least for now. The Trump administration sees them as natural allies. Following public criticism from military personnel and their families over likely unpaid salaries, President Trump unilaterally announced that they would be paid on time on October 15, even as other federal employees remain without pay. The decision has raised questions about its legality from all sides.
But these steps did not change the Groundhog Day atmosphere on Capitol Hill.
The House has not been in session since Sept. 19, when Republicans passed a bill to keep government operating at current levels until mid-November and then left town for a month. With Republican Speaker Mike Johnson recessing the House again this week, he has now canceled more than a quarter of the days the House was scheduled to meet this year as GOP leaders released their planned calendar.
A small bipartisan group of House lawmakers pushed for a one-year extension of existing health care subsidies, but congressional leaders on both sides of the aisle rejected the proposal.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has publicly said he will guarantee Democrats a vote on a bill to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies if they first concede and reopen the government.
“I will not negotiate on hostage terms and I will not pay ransom,” he said. published on social platform X on Friday.
But Democrats rejected what they call a show vote that would go nowhere in the House, where GOP leaders have refused to promise a vote even if the Affordable Care Act subsidy extension passes the Senate.
“We want a deal that actually delivers health care for the American people,” says Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, blaming the length of the shutdown on Republicans who “will not come to the table to negotiate.”
Senator Capito blames what she calls the “march of misery” on Democrats who see “political gain” in the lockdown and want to “do everything they can to bring down the president.”
