Republican Matt Van Epps fended off a challenge from Democrat Aftin Behn on Tuesday in a special election for Tennessee's 7th Congressional District, where voters had both the outcome and a broader message in mind.
The result preserves a House seat that the GOP desperately needs given how thin its majority is. But the margin – a 9-point victory for Van Epps in a district where President Donald Trump carried him by 22 points last year – is bolstering Democratic optimism ahead of next year's midterm elections.
The big picture
The final result is consistent with every other House special election this year, in which Democrats posted strong showings. In four specials before last night, Democrats reported a net improvement of 16 to 22 points over the 2024 presidential margin in those districts. Behn's 9-point loss in Tennessee represents a net 13-point shift in her party's favor.
Such consistent gains by the opposition party in special elections often foreshadowed strong results in midterm elections. This was a feature of the build-up to Trump's first midterm, when Democrats picked up 40 seats and gained control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 blue wave.
It should be noted that Democrats have been doing well in special elections and other low-turnout issues for some time. This reflects the intense motivation of their professional class., an anti-Trump base that suppresses public opinion polls at every opportunity.
There's no doubt that played a role in the outcome in Tennessee. But what worries Republicans is that turnout was actually quite high. About 180,000 votes were cast, far more than in any previous special congressional election this year and nearly identical to the number in the 2022 midterm elections in Tennessee's 7th District.
Democrats paid a high price for their candidate
Yes, Democrats can and will scream about the GOP's 9-point hold in a district like this. But it's likely they could do even better with another candidate.
Ben, the winner crowded and closely divided Democratic primary a majority voter, she was an active and unapologetic leftist for most of her public life – so much so that members of her own party dubbed her “AOK Tennessee” Harsh positions and inflammatory rhetoric from the recent past have drawn significant attention and have become the headlines of the GOP campaign against her. And it appears to have limited its penetration in some areas.
Notably, Ben saw the largest gains over 2024 results in Davidson County, where Nashville is located. Demographically and politically, this is the extreme corner of the county.
It is deeply democratic, and has many voters who share the worldview Ben has expressed in the past. It is no coincidence that it was in Davidson that she already received the position of state legislator. Tuesday night saw greater voter turnout and an 18-point shift in favor of Democrats compared to last year.
But look at the other two communities sandwiched between Davidson County on the chart. Williamson County is home to some of Nashville's fastest growing upscale suburbs. Like other Sun Belt suburbs, Williamson has been a reliable Republican this century, but in 2016 and 2020 he took steps away from Trump and the GOP. In other words, there is a portion of voters here who may be willing to support a Democrat now that Trump is back in the White House and has a shaky job approval rating.
But Ben hasn't made much of a difference at all in Williamson – a net move of just 7 points from last year. It's impossible to look at this number and not wonder whether the Democrat, without his baggage, can achieve much more significant success.
It's a similar story in Montgomery County, which surrounds the city of Clarksville. While not as high-profile as Williamson, Montgomery is the closest swing district in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District. If Behn really had a chance to win the race, she needed a win in Montgomery, but as in Williamson, she fell far short of her party's expectations.
Again, overall Ben has posted results in this district that are very encouraging for Democrats. The fact that she did so despite her commitments as a candidate will only increase their optimism. But the results also show that her candidacy has indeed given undecided voters pause, especially in the suburbs, preventing Democrats from making a much bigger breakthrough there.
Dangers of Gerrymandering
These special elections come amid mid-decade redistricting now being sought in several states. And the fact that this district has become competitive illustrates the risks that parties take when they change political lines.
The current boundaries of Tennessee's 7th District were drawn in 2022 when Republicans in the state engaged in a new gerrymandering effort to draw a new congressional map after the decennial census. Previously, Nashville and its 700,000 residents were a single entity in one county. Given the city's political leanings, the district was safely Democratic and was represented until 2022 by Rep. Jim Cooper.
GOP gerrymandering split Nashville and scattered parts of it into three different districts, all of which leaned Republican. Cooper decided to retire in 2022, and the GOP won every seat that year and again in 2024.
But the political climate has changed since then. Now it's the Republicans who control the White House and have to deal with a tough midterm situation, meaning that suddenly, as we just saw in Tennessee, seats that looked safe when they were gerrymandered a few years ago can and will suddenly become competitive.
It's a problem the GOP may face elsewhere in 2026, and one that Democrats, who have orchestrated their own aggressive gerrymandering in California, may eventually face as well.
