As high-level Gaza peace negotiators sought a path to a “yes” at talks in Egypt on Wednesday, there was a key turning point when the parties agreed to split the new deal into two phases.
After White House negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner signed the agreement, a consensus emerged to separate the first phase of confidence-building from the rest of President Donald Trump's 20-point peace plan.
Part of this first phase has already begun – a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and a partial withdrawal of Israeli troops – with the long-awaited release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners expected by the end of this long holiday weekend in the US.
Why did we write this
To achieve a breakthrough that would allow a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages, negotiators separated the emotional first phase of Trump's plan from the much more difficult second. There is still a lot of hard work to be done to bring Israelis and Palestinians to peace.
It was the splitting of the Gaza peace plan into two separate phases that saved the negotiations from getting bogged down in the minutiae of many of the complex issues that should be resolved in a comprehensive agreement to end the war in the Gaza Strip, White House officials said at a briefing for reporters on Thursday.
And it was the idea of Phase 1, largely limited to the long-awaited and emotional goals of a ceasefire and the release of all hostages, that allowed Mr. Trump to take a victory lap on Wednesday as the streets of Israel and Gaza filled with relief and jubilation.
“It's too early to talk about peace”
However, as long-awaited and encouraging as the agreed Phase 1 is, many experts warn that this is not peace yet.
“It is too early to talk about peace and there are still significant issues that will need to be addressed,” says Hugh Lovatt, senior policy fellow and Middle East analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations in London.
Noting that there are potential obstacles to both phases of the agreement's implementation, Mr. Lovatt cites “the real risk that Israel will stall its further redeployment while continuing to undermine the diplomatic path to a two-state solution.”
Moreover, given the complexity of the issues to be resolved in the second phase of negotiations to ensure genuine peace, some experts question whether key players, including the United States, will have the focus and stamina to achieve the final result. They point to Israeli resistance, especially to some of the unresolved principles laid out in the 20-point plan.
“Much more needs to happen to say that this tragic episode is truly over,” says Stephen Walt, a professor of international relations at the Harvard Kennedy School. “The question now is, do President Trump and his administration have the strength to see this through and move beyond the first phase into what truly looks like peace?”
Progress on the ground
In the meantime, however, the completion of Phase 1 is already being felt on the ground. The truce took effect on Friday, shortly after the Israeli government approved the agreement late Thursday. As Israeli forces withdrew from populated areas to defensive positions on Gaza's periphery, thousands of displaced Palestinians began returning to Gaza City and the northern Strip.
It also marked the beginning of the release of Israeli hostages, which must occur within 72 hours of the ceasefire. This has sent waves of joy across Israel as Israelis await the dramatic return on Monday, or perhaps even Sunday, of their countrymen who survived two years of terrible captivity.
President Trump, whose name is at the forefront of the 20-point plan, is expected in the region starting Monday morning, giving a speech at the Israeli Knesset and then planning to meet with the freed hostages or their families. Mr. Trump has become a hero to the families of the hostages and the most popular political leader among Israelis thanks to his ability to apply strong pressure for the release of the hostages and a ceasefire.
He will then travel to Egypt to formally sign the agreement later on Monday. New on the agenda is a summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, either late Monday or early Tuesday, officials said. Its goal: to bring together regional and European leaders whose countries are expected to shoulder most of the burden and costs of sticking to the plan and ensuring the deal doesn't fall apart after Phase 1.
Despite Mr. Trump's claim this week that the Phase 1 agreement represents the greatest day in history, the summit at one level appears to be an acknowledgment that much work remains to be done.
But the hastily organized summit also reflects the leadership style of President Trump, whom analysts credit with kickstarting the first phase.
“In a week, we have seen President Trump act as a powerful particle accelerator, forcing everyone to move at hypersonic speeds to reach an agreement that most of us thought was unattainable,” says Nimrod Novik, an Israeli fellow at the Israel Policy Forum. The New York-based think tank promotes Israel's long-term security through a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Disarmament and other obstacles
Even before the parties move into the final phase of managing, reconstructing and securing Gaza with ground forces composed of third-country units, critical issues at the start of Phase 2 could still block any progress on the rest of the plan.
One example is the chicken-and-egg issue regarding the disarmament of Hamas and Israel's commitment to ending the conflict. Israel insists that Hamas must verifiably disarm and withdraw its fighters from the Gaza Strip before it can withdraw completely from the Gaza Strip and make the ceasefire permanent. But Hamas first wants assurances that Israel will not use its disarmament to resume the war.
Once the problems of Phase 1 are resolved, “even more difficult work begins,” says Rachel Brandenburg, managing director of the Israel Policy Forum in Washington.
What kind of security perimeter will Israel need, how will humanitarian assistance increase, and – point No. 19 of the 20-point plan – “What does a “credible path to a Palestinian state” look like?” she asks. “The 20 point plan is actually more like principles,” she says. “They will be difficult to understand in practice.”
However, Mr. Novick notes that a lot of work has been done over two years of war, not least by the Biden administration, to lay the groundwork for the Gaza plan for the next day. Expecting that all the hard work done to formulate the various Gaza peace plans will help pave the way forward and keep the peace process on track is not “fantastic”, he says.
“If all this [work] comes to fruition, Israel will have less incentive to renew the war, says Mr. Novik, and Hamas will have no choice but to agree.”
