Four potential obstacles in House vote to end US shutdown

A day after the US Senate passed a spending bill aimed at ending the longest government shutdown in history, the budget fight now moves to the House of Representatives.

The lower house of Congress is expected to vote this week on the funding issue.

Unlike the Senate, if House Republicans remain united, they won't need Democrats to pass the budget. But the probability of error is very small.

Here are four potential budget delays before it can clear Congress and reach the President's desk to be signed into law.

A key sticking point throughout the shutdown has been the desire among some Democrats to include in the spending bill an extension of tax breaks that would make health insurance less expensive for 24 million Americans.

Instead, Senate Republicans agreed only in December to give Democrats a vote on extending the subsidies, something they had already proposed weeks ago.

And House Speaker Mike Johnson on Monday did not commit to allowing a vote in his chamber on the tax cuts.

However, this entails a fair degree of political risk for Republicans. If they eliminate the subsidies, health insurance premiums could skyrocket for millions of people, giving Democrats a ready-made campaign issue in next year's midterm elections.

Marjorie Taylor Greene, a conservative Republican congresswoman from Georgia, broke with President Donald Trump, warning that her party must ensure that health insurance premiums do not rise sharply.

As the subsidies expire towards the end of December, Republicans are developing their plan.

They want to limit the income of those who can receive tax breaks and propose that tax dollars bypass insurance companies and go directly to individuals – although the details are unclear.

Once in power in Washington, where Trump's Republicans control the House and Senate, Democrats finally appear to have the political wind in their sails after several election victories last week in Virginia, New Jersey and New York.

But these victories, like the shutdown fight, heightened strategic tensions between the pragmatic and progressive, or left, factions of the party.

Left-wing Democrats are furious with the defectors, who voted with Senate Republicans to pass the budget on Monday, seeing it as a capitulation to Trump.

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, a spokesman for that wing of the party, said giving up the fight was a “terrible mistake.” California Gov. Gavin Newsom called it a “capitulation.”

Rep. Greg Casar of Texas, chairman of the House Progressive Caucus, warned: “A deal that does not reduce health care costs is a betrayal of the millions of Americans who count on Democrats to fight for them.”

But centrist lawmakers like Maine's Jared Golden, who represents one of the most conservative districts in the country held by any Democrat, could cross his path.

Golden, who recently announced he would not seek re-election, will likely vote for the package, his office told political outlet Axios on Monday.

Another moderate Democrat, Henry Cuellar of Texas, could help push through the Republican spending plan.

“It's time to put country before party and get our government working for the American people again,” he wrote on social media on Sunday.

Republicans control the House with 219 seats to Democrats' 213, but can only afford to lose two votes to pass the spending plan.

While most House Republicans are expected to support the funding package given Trump's support, fiscal hawks in the party will object.

Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who has repeatedly voted against such a temporary funding extension, is expected to vote no.

The proposed deal would allow the federal government to continue adding about $1.8 trillion (£1.4 trillion) a year to its $38 trillion debt.

Rand Paul of Kentucky cited a spending glut as he became the only Senate Republican to vote against the budget.

The Senate plan would only extend funding through January, but the conservative House Freedom Caucus wants the budget to last longer and do more to contain costs.

House Speaker Mike Johnson has kept the chamber out of session for the past seven weeks to focus pressure on Senate Democrats to reach a deal to shut down the chamber.

He is now calling on lawmakers to immediately begin returning to Washington, with a vote not scheduled until Wednesday afternoon.

But members of Congress are facing the same flight delays that have plagued other Americans during the spending impasse.

Starting Tuesday, the rate of reduction in flights to the United States will increase to 6%. The cuts come as the nation's busiest airports reduce their ability to cope with illnesses linked to the shutdown of air traffic controllers who worked without pay during the shutdown.

Record low temperatures and heavy snow also hit the Great Lakes region of the Midwest, adding to the delays.