Fossil fuel emissions rise again

The world's burning of fossil fuels this year will release more planet-warming carbon dioxide than ever before, new data shows.

It's another sign that efforts to combat climate change by cutting emissions are moving too slowly to meet international goals as countries meet in Brazil for the UN's COP30 climate talks.

But emissions have risen much more slowly over the past decade as renewable energy sources have taken off, raising hopes that the global warming trend can still be curbed.

And a separate analysis by clean energy think tank Ember shows that the use of fossil fuels for electricity generation will stabilize in 2025, thanks in large part to the rapid growth of solar power.

This adds weight to the idea that global emissions may be approaching a peak – although it is difficult to say exactly when that might happen.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for 2025 are, of course, estimates as the year is not yet complete, but they show a mixed picture.

Emissions from fossil fuels and cement are expected to rise again to 38.1 billion tonnes of CO2, according to the Global Carbon Budget group, which includes more than 130 scientists from 21 countries.

This will be 1.1% higher than in 2024.

However, emissions from land use change, such as persistent deforestation, are projected to be lower than last year.

This has a lot to do with the ending. Natural weather pattern El Niño – which may lead to increased forest loss, but is a continuation of a long-term trend.

This means that overall, total emissions from all human activities are expected to reach 42.2 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2025 – up from 42.4 billion tonnes in 2024, although only slightly.

What's clearer, the team says, is that emissions have grown more slowly over the past decade – 0.3% per year – compared to 1.9% per year in the previous decade.

Over the past 10 years, 35 countries have significantly reduced their fossil fuel emissions while growing their economies, they said. This is almost twice as much as a decade earlier.

“We are not yet in a situation where emissions are falling. [as] quickly as they need to to address climate change, but at the same time there are many positive [developments]” said Corinne Le Quéré, professor of climate change science at the University of East Anglia.

Emissions are rising much more slowly than before “due to the extraordinary growth of renewable energy in China and other countries,” she added.

This effect of the renewable energy boom is underscored by emissions from the power sector.

Fossil fuel electricity production is forecast to stabilize or even decline slightly this year for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic, according to think tank Ember.

What's unusual about this year, Amber says, is that it happened even as electricity demand soared, rather than as a result of an economic downturn.

And the additional demand for electricity this year has been more than met by wind and, especially, solar energy.

“We've had decades and centuries of fossil fuels being the only way to really grow our economy, and the last decade is the first time that's changed,” said Nicholas Fulgham, senior data analyst at Ember.

“Solar energy is growing at a record pace, and faster than any other source of electricity in history,” he added.

What happens in the energy sector is especially important in the fight against climate change.

It is the largest emitting sector and is expected to play an increasing role in the energy system as more people buy electric vehicles, heat pumps and other technologies.

“Whatever happens in the energy sector has a huge impact on what happens to emissions around the world,” Mr Fulghum said.

Amber is confident that emissions from using fossil fuels to generate electricity are now leveling off and could begin to decline steadily within a few years.

This echoes a message yesterday from the International Energy Agency, the global energy watchdog.

Under countries' stated policies, carbon dioxide emissions from energy systems (not just electricity) could peak within the next few years, the report says.

While there is still uncertainty about the exact timing of the peak, it will undoubtedly be a landmark moment in the fight against climate change.

However, this will not stop warming, since countries will still add CO2 to the atmosphere, just at a slower rate.

“As long as we emit CO2, warming will continue… to stop further warming, we must bring [net] emissions to zero,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, head of the Department of Mathematical Modeling of Climate Systems at the University of Exeter.

And yet another analysis released today to coincide with COP30 offers a reality check.

The research group Climate Action Tracker estimates that under current policies, warming could reach 2.6°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century – a figure that has remained virtually unchanged over the past few years.

“It's clear that we've never had a better chance to do this. It is also clear that we have never been in a worse situation,” said Dr Bill Hare from the Climate Action Tracker team.

“So it’s the devil’s dilemma. Things could go very wrong. We can walk away from this COP without doing the right things and strengthening fossil gas and oil and we will be heading towards 2.5C.” [or] Warming by 3 degrees for sure,” he added.

“But on the other hand, there is a chance … to do the exact opposite and take advantage of the momentum of technological change happening around the world.”