Forget defection, Poilievre should fear resignations

While the dramatic defection of a Conservative lawmaker captured the imagination of Parliament Hill last week, a much less dramatic resignation could spell doom for Conservative leader Pierre Poilevre.

Nova Scotia Conservative Chris d'Entremont's decision to join Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal government has sparked excitement on the Hill. And for good reason.

The surprise move brings the Liberals one vote closer to a majority in the House of Commons, an achievement that will protect the minority government from losing a vote of confidence and triggering an election.

Prime Minister Mark Carney walks with MP Chris d'Entremont, who crossed the floor from the Conservative caucus last week to join the Liberals. We may see Conservative resignations who want to jump ship, writes Dan Lett.

(Canadian Press files)

On the face of it, this crossover could weaken Poilevre's case for him to remain at the Tory helm after the leadership overhaul in January 2026. It doesn't help Poilevre's case that d'Entremont accused senior Conservatives of threatening and intimidating him when rumors first leaked that he was considering crossing the floor.

In an interview with CBC, d'Entremont said Conservative House leader Andrew Scheer and whip Chris Warkentin “barged” into his office and started yelling at him. This underscored d'Entremont's concern that the Conservatives were “a community rather than a serious political party”.

Even despite these accusations, there is still a possibility that anger over the defection will galvanize support for the embattled Tory leader.

To date, it appears that party supporters would rather spend time condemning d'Entremont for defecting than wondering whether Poilievre's combative leadership style hastened the MP's decision to switch sides. It's so easy to vilify a traitor, so easy that you don't have to worry about why they became traitors.

All this brings us to another incident that took place in Toridome last week, which may prove to be much more impressive.

On the eve of a key vote of confidence in the Liberal budget, Edmonton Conservative MP Matt Genero announced he would resign and leave politics no later than next spring.

Unlike d'Entremont, Generou did not cite a lack of faith in Poilievre in his decision. He said he was disappointed the Conservatives did not form a government at the last election and wanted to spend more time with his family.

I don't want to downplay the importance of family, but this phrase usually means: “I don't agree with the direction and future of the party, so I'm leaving now before things get too bad.”

The timing of Generu's statement – just before the Carney government held its first vote of confidence on the budget – suggests he has at least some concerns about the party's leadership.

That was certainly the case last year, when Liberal MPs, including about a dozen cabinet ministers, announced their resignations or retirements while former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was still leading the party.

Trudeau's popularity has fallen to such an extent that a wide range of Grotto MPs have decided to announce their intention not to stand in the next election. These resignations, as well as public condemnation from cabinet minister Chrystia Freeland, ultimately prompted Trudeau's decision to resign.

Are Poilievre expecting more resignations in the near future? On Monday Toronto Star reported growing dissatisfaction within the Conservative Party, with between a “handful” and 15 Conservative MPs “very disappointed” with Poileur and his senior leadership team.

The campaign was based on disappointment caused by Poilievre's performance in the spring federal elections, where he entered the campaign as the presumptive favorite and emerged in second place. Losing his seat in Ottawa only fueled concerns that he was too crass and too Trump-like to win Canadians' support.

Poilievre spent the summer campaigning for the opportunity to continue leading the party. Victory in the Alberta by-election allowed him to retain his position as leader of the official opposition. However, he will still have to win the support of party members at the January congress.

Poilievre's closest allies and advisers worked hard to spin the story of how, having learned a hard lesson on the campaign trail, he would reinvent himself as a less gruff and more engaging political personality. At first there was a softer tone. By the fall, however, Poilievre had fully embraced his brand as the pugnacious dog of Canadian politics.

The Tory leader argued that Trudeau probably should have been prosecuted for various ethical violations, but the “despicable” RCMP leadership refused to press criminal charges for political reasons. His inflammatory comments led many anonymous sources within the Conservative faction to suggest that Poilievre had outlived his usefulness as party leader.