Food prices could increase in 2026, with meat leading the way, say Dalhousie researchers

Food prices in Canada could rise by four to six percent next year, driven largely by higher-priced meat products, according to a forecast by researchers at Dalhousie University.

Beef in particular is expected to rise in price, potentially up seven percent, as cattle numbers decline (these markets subject to tariffs), and more ranchers are leaving the industry, said a research team that prepared a report on food prices in Canada.

The decline in beef supplies is expected to last until 2027, although the country is forecast to increase imports to cope with the problems.

“We're expecting another tough year because of beef prices, and as people lean toward chicken, chicken prices are also rising,” said Sylvain Charlebois, director of the university's agri-food analytics lab and lead author of the report.

“And that’s why, unfortunately, this whole category is actually going to be more expensive.”

Meanwhile, food items typically sold in the middle section of the grocery store could become more expensive after years of stagnant prices, he said. This includes pantry staples such as canned goods.

“Usually the center of the store is where people come looking for a place to stay…because of inflation,” he said. “That won’t happen in 2026.”

Overall, several factors could contribute to higher food inflation over the next 12 months, including the ongoing trade dispute with the US, changes in food production and other economic factors such as labor conditions, according to the food price report.

Food banks are seeing more customers

According to Food Banks Canada, approximately a quarter of Canadians live in food insecure households, meaning they do not have adequate access to food due to financial reasons.

Neil Hetherington, CEO of the Daily Bread Food Bank in Toronto, said his organization now serves 330,000 clients a month, a figure that hovered around the 60,000 mark before the pandemic.

“We're not adding more food. We're seeing more clients,” said Hetherington, who works with about 14,000 volunteers citywide.

“The volume of customers here in Toronto could fill the Rogers Center eight times a month. That’s how many people we feed.”

With food prices generally rising from April 2024, many consumers say they are already feeling the strain. Those who spoke to CBC News were alarmed at the prospect of further rising grocery store prices.

Toronto resident Sabra Al-Harthi said she's considering buying meat less often. “I guess I could just cut the meat a little and make it a day off.”

WATCH | Why some Canadians are giving up steak:

The retail price of beef in Canada has reached a record high, prompting some consumers to give up steak.

This juicy lunch burger may soon be out of reach due to record high beef prices. As Shelley Joyce reports, the burnt-out market shows no signs of cooling.

Meanwhile, Giacomo LoGiacco said that he began to spend less on food. “I work full time in a factory and barely scrape by. I live paycheck to paycheck,” he said.

“Sometimes I buy something only on sale, but I only get milk, eggs, bread – the basics.”