Florida is entering a national arms race over redistricting, with another contentious map-drawing fight set to begin Thursday at a legislative committee hearing.
Republicans hope Florida, where they control state government entirely and already represent 20 of 28 congressional districts, will be fertile ground for further strengthening the party's narrow House majority ahead of next year's midterm elections.
But this will not be easy, either from a legal or a political point of view.
Legally, voters approved an anti-partisan gerrymandering constitutional amendment in 2010. The state Supreme Court weakened the amendment's ban on racial gerrymandering, but the ban on partisan gerrymandering remained in effect.
“No apportionment plan or individual district shall be drawn with the intent to favor or prejudice a political party or incumbent,” the law declared. Florida Constitution reads.
That means lawmakers will have to explain and defend their rationale for redrafting a map they passed just three years ago without mentioning the partisan goals that prompted other states across the country to pursue unusually aggressive redistricting campaigns in the middle of the decade.
“While this partisan battle over redistricting is not illegal in other states, it is illegal in the state of Florida,” Amy Keith, executive director of Common Cause Florida, told NBC News.
Politics is also difficult. Even though the state has a Republican governor and Legislature, party leaders are divided on how to proceed.
The Florida House of Representatives, seeking to take part in redistricting, has scheduled two hearings for this month. But Gov. Ron DeSantis said this week he wants a new map drawn up in the spring, just days before the deadline for candidates to file. Thus, the state could take into account a potential Supreme Court decision on Louisiana Redistricting Casewhich could weaken the Voting Rights Act and make the process easier.
On Wednesday, the Senate GOP leader sided with DeSantis in the fight.
“The governor has expressed a desire to address this issue next spring. Therefore, potential mid-decade redistricting efforts are not currently underway in the Senate,” Florida Senate President Ben Albritton told colleagues in a memo.
Still, Albritton warned lawmakers to prepare for litigation, reminding them to stay away from supporters trying to influence the process and to save all their communications and records in case of possible lawsuits.
State House Speaker Danny Perez did not respond to a request for comment.
No map proposals have yet been filed, but the expectation is that a redraw could give Republicans three to five seats, with three seats seen as the most likely scenario.
Any potential special legislation The meeting must take place by early April as the state's deadline for selecting federal candidates is April 20.
The three seats that could be affected are held by Democratic Reps. Darren Soto in Orlando and Jared Moskowitz and Debbie Wasserman Schultz in South Florida.
If they decide to be more aggressive, Republicans could also face the risk of a “dummy,” a redraw that would help the opposing party by making previously safe seats more competitive.
Democrats have little power to block any redistricting efforts because Florida's Legislature is dominated by Republicans. But a coalition of more than 30 pro-Democrat and progressive groups plans to bus more than 300 protesters to the state Capitol in Tallahassee on Thursday to protest GOP pressure.
Florida's entry into the redistricting battle comes at a critical moment for Republicans, who kicked off the cycle this summer by passing a new map in Texas that could give the party up to five seats. But since then, concerns have grown that Democrats could neutralize the GOP push.
California Democrats responded by approving voters last month of new district lines that could undo any Republican gains in Texas. And while Republicans were successful in passing new maps in Missouri and North Carolina, efforts elsewhere either failed to achieve the gains the party had hoped for or stalled.
And now the Republicans We are waiting for the final decision from the US Supreme Court on whether they will be able to use their new card in Texas in 2026.
However, the redistribution season is not over yet. A map is currently being drafted that could give Republicans two seats in Indiana. passes through the State Legislaturealthough it is unclear whether it has sufficient support in the Senate.
Democrats in Virginia launched a multi-step process draw new maps before the midterm elections in October, which run into the spring. State House Speaker Don Scott on Wednesday floated the possibility of an aggressive map that could result in Democrats picking up four seats.
Legislators in Maryland, Illinois and Kansas continue to face pressure to redistrict.
