The actors are going to have their say.
The Screen Actors Guild Awards may have a new name, but their importance in the Oscar race is as important as ever. The nominations, now called the Actor Awards, will be announced on January 7. With more than 122,000 SAG-AFTRA performers eligible to vote—the largest voting body of any major awards show—the results often reflect populist tastes and broad appeal.
This year's selection window covers plays released between January 1 and December 31, 2025, creating what appears to be a competitive field in all categories.
Since the introduction of the ensemble category in 1995, only four films—Braveheart (1995), The Shape of Water (2017), Green Book (2018) and Nomadland (2020)—have won the Best Picture Oscar without receiving a SAG ensemble nomination. Since the Academy expanded its best picture list in 2009, 61 of the 80 films nominated for a SAG ensemble (76% success rate) have also received best picture nominations, underscoring the category's value as a reliable Oscar indicator.
The ensemble race is more crowded than ever.
Warner Bros. “One battle after another” is among the early favorites with a star-studded cast led by Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn, and a cast that fits the guild's long-established preference for recognizable names. There's also some history that could possibly be made. With a projected seven nominations, Paul Thomas Anderson's action epic is poised to become the most nominated film in SAG history. And there's still room for one more if Regina Hall makes the cut in the role supporting actresses along with Teyana Taylor.
The list of the most nominated films in SAG history currently consists of six entries, with five each: Shakespeare in Love (1998), Chicago (2002), Doubt (2008), Banshee of Inisherina (2022), Everywhere at Once (2022) and Wicked (2024). Of these, “Shakespeare,” “Chicago” and “All Around” won the SAG Award for Best Ensemble and then went on to win the Academy Award for Best Picture. “Doubt” took home SAG Best Actress for Meryl Streep (but lost the Oscar), while “Banshee” and “Wicked” went home empty-handed.
Clearly, SAG's predictive power extends to film actor race. Since 2009, SAG film acting nominees have overlapped with the Academy Awards an average of 16 out of 20 times, for an 80% overlap. The strongest overlap occurred in 2009, the year of The Hurt Locker, when 19 of SAG's 20 nominees received Oscar nominations. The weakest crossover occurred in 2021, the year of “CODA”, when the overlap dropped to 12 out of 20.
Last year's Best Actor winner Timothée Chalamet (“Completely Unknown”) continues his momentum by returning as table tennis prodigy Marty Mauser in Josh Safdie's “Marty Supreme.” Remarkably, no film actor has ever won back-to-back. SAG Awards. This could open the door for someone else to take the top spot. However, DiCaprio, Michael B. Jordan and Ethan Hawke are expected to hear their names called. The organization has not been kind to performances in non-English languages, so “Secret Agent” star Wagner Moura is predicted to be snubbed. Despite strong critical praise, the guild's long-standing hesitation to nominate non-English-language performances (see Sandra Hüller's omission in Anatomy of a Fall ) remains an obstacle.
However, some recognition is expected from non-English-language storytelling, with Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleas tipped to be part of the cast for Norwegian family drama Sentimental Value.
Actors who are mainstays of the ceremony, such as Glenn Close (who has 10 individual nominations and could appear in Wake Dead) or William H. Macy, who could find his way to a nomination for his work in Dreams on a Train, which is predicted to land in the ensemble acting category.
On the TV side, streaming platforms are likely to dominate the drama series race, with Apple TV's The Break and HBO Max's The White Lotus expected to lead the way, along with the final season of Netflix's Stranger Things. In the comedy genre, FX's “Bear” and HBO's “Hackbreakers” remain unchanged, while Apple TV could break through Seth Rogen's “The Studio.”
Some of the other individual acting categories feature a mix of established favorites and veterans – Jean Smart, Jeremy Allen White, Adam Scott – and relative newcomers such as Glen Powell in Chad Powers.
The limited series categories are heavily weighted toward Netflix, which can claim eight of the 10 nominations in both the male and female acting categories, led by the Emmy-winning miniseries “Teen.”
Nominations will be announced on Wednesday, January 7, 2026. Final voting to determine winners will take place between January 14 and February 27 at noon PT. The 32nd Annual SAG-AFTRA Acting Awards will air live on Netflix on March 1st.
The final predictions for all film and television categories are below.
Warner Bros.
Movie categories
Acting ensemble in a film
- “Hamnet(Focus functions)
- “Marty Supreme(A24)
- “One battle after another(Warner Bros.)
- “Sinners(Warner Bros.)
- “Dream Train(Netflix)
Alternatives: “Sentimental Value” and “Evil: For Good.”
Male actor starring
- Timothee Chalamet“Marty Supreme” (A24)
- Leonardo DiCaprio“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
- Joel Edgerton“Dream Train” (Netflix)
- Ethan Hawke“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Michael B. Jordan“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Alternatives: Wagner Moura (Secret Agent) and Dwayne Johnson (Crushing Machine)
Female actor starring
- Jessie Buckley“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
- Rose Byrne“If I had legs, I'd kick you” (A24)
- Chase Infinity“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
- Renata Reinsve“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
- Emma Stone“Bugonia” (Focus Focus)
Alternatives: Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) and Kate Hudson (Sun Blue's Dream)
Male supporting actor
- Jacob ElordFrankenstein (Netflix)
- Benicio Del Toro“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
- Paul Mescal“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
- Sean Penn“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
- Stellan Skarsgård“Sentimental Value” (Neon) ***
Alternatives: William H. Macy (Train Dreams) and Andrew Scott (Blue Moon)
Female supporting actor
- Emily Blunt“Wrecking Machine” (A24)
- Ariana Grande“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
- Amy Madigan“Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
- Teyana Taylor“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Alternatives: Elle Fanning (“Sentimental Value”) and Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”)
Stunt ensemble in a film
- “F1(Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
- “Frankenstein(Netflix)
- “Mission: Impossible: Final Reckoning(Paramount Pictures)
- “One battle after another(Warner Bros.)
- “Superman(Warner Bros.)
- “Evil: For good(Universal Pictures)
Alternatives: Frankenstein and Guns.
STRANGE THINGS: SEASON 5.
Courtesy of Netflix
Television categories
Ensemble cast in a drama series
- “Andor(Disney+)
- “Pitt(HBO Max)
- “Severance pay(Apple TV)
- “Stranger Things(Netflix)
- “White Lotus(HBO Max)
Alternatives: The Morning Show and The Diplomat.
Ensemble cast in a comedy series
- “Abbott Elementary School(ABC)
- “Bear(FX)
- “Khaki(HBO Max)
- “Only murders in the building(Hulu)
- “Studio(Apple TV)
Alternatives: “Newspaper” and “Wednesday”.
Male actor in a drama series
- Sterling K. Brown“Paradise” (Hulu)
- Walton Goggins“White Lotus” (HBO Max)
- Ethan Hawke“Details” (FX)
- Adam Scott“Rupture” (Apple TV)
- Noah Wyle“Pitt” (HBO Max)
Alternates: Tramell Tillman (Severance) and Tom Pelphrey (Assignment)
Male actor in a comedy series
- Adam Brody“Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
- Glen Powell“Chad Powers” (Hulu)
- Seth Rogen“Studio” (Apple TV)
- Alexander Skarsgård“Killer Robot” (Apple TV)
- Jeremy Allen White“Bear” (FX)
Alternatives: Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building) and Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear)
Female drama series actor
- Kathy Bates“Matlock” (CBS)
- Britt Lower“Rupture” (Apple TV)
- Katherine Lanasa“Pitt” (HBO Max)
- Keri Russell“The Diplomat” (Netflix)
- Rhea Seehorn“More” (Apple TV)
Alternatives: Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show) and Carrie Coon (White Lotus)
Female Comedy Series Actor
- Kristen Bell“Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
- Quinta BrunsonAbbott Elementary School (ABC)
- Hannah Einbinder“Khaki” (HBO Max)
- Jenna Ortega“Wednesday” (Netflix)
- Gene Smart“Khaki” (HBO Max)
Alternatives: Ayo Edebiri (Bear) and Catherine O'Hara (The Studio)
Male actor in a TV movie or limited series
- Jason Bateman“Black Rabbit” (Netflix)
- Owen Cooper“Teenager” (Netflix)
- Stephen Graham“Teenager” (Netflix)
- Charlie Hunnam“Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)
- Brian Tyree Henry“Drug Thief” (Apple TV)
Alternatives: Wagner Moura (Drug Thief) and Paul Giamatti (Black Mirror)
Female actor in a TV movie or limited series
- Erin Doherty“Teenager” (Netflix)
- Megan Fahey“Sirens” (Netflix)
- Sarah Snook“All Her Fault” (Peacock)
- Christine Tremarco“Teenager” (Netflix)
- Michelle Williams“Dying for Sex” (FX)
Alternatives: Claire Danes (The Beast in Me) and Amanda Seyfried (Long Bright River)
Stunt ensemble in a comedy or drama series
- “Andor(Disney+)
- “Fall out(Prime Video)
- “Gen V(Prime Video)
- “The Last of Us(HBO Max)
- “Stranger Things(Netflix)
Alternatives: Cobra Kai and Severance.
