Illinois State came within 37 seconds of the 2014 national title but couldn't keep North Dakota State out of the end zone. After losing to NDSU in the 2021 title game, Montana State came back last season and tried to do everything it could to erase an early deficit against the mighty Bison. The Bobcats trailed by three points.
Both ISU and MSU's ambitions are tempered by the FCS Goliath, but an unprecedented upset could win the 2025 national title. Brock Spack's ISU Redbirds knocked off a particularly strong NDSU team in the round of 16, erasing a 14-point deficit and getting a timely 2-point conversion. And after the bracket was torn down, the Redbirds continued to move forward: they suffered two more road losses (they became the first team to win four road games in a single playoff series) and, using a rapidly improving defense, clinched a berth in their first title game since the 2014 heartbreak.
Meanwhile, Montana State is making its third title game in five seasons. With a mix of new blood and stalwarts from last year's very close squad, the Bobcats won 13 games in a row and topped rival Montana in the semifinals. They have waited over 40 years to follow up on their 1984 national title and last season they came very close to the top of the mountain. Now all they have to do is defeat Destiny's team.
Monday night in Nashville7:30 ET, ESPN), two teams looking to take advantage of the best title chance they've ever had will meet. Here's everything you need to know about the exciting FCS finals.
How did they get here
No. 2 Montana State Bobcats
Record: 13-2
SP+ rating: third overall, fourth in offense, ninth in defense
Selecting the main team for all conferences: RG Titan Fleischmann (6'4″, 300 lbs, Jr.), North Carolina Paul Brott (6-3, 300, st.), edge Kenneth Aiden IV (6-1, 250, st.), SS Kayden Dowler (6-0, 205, Sr., Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year)
Key results of the regular season: lost to No. 2 South Dakota State 30-24 def. No. 10 Northern Arizona 34-10 def. No. 9 UC Davis 38-17 def. No. 2 Montana 31–28
Playoff series: by definition Yale 21-13, def. No. 7 Stephen F. Austin 44-28 def. No. 3 Montana 48-23
Including Oregon's explosive performance in Week 1, Montana State averaged a rather lethal 23.8 points through the first four games of the season. As always, the running game was strong from the start—the Bobcats gained at least 189 yards on the ground against every FCS opponent and topped 225 yards 10 times—but the new quarterback Justin Lamsontransfer from Stanford, averaged just 4.3 yards per pass attempt (including sacks) against Oregon and South Dakota State, and he threw just three touchdown passes in his first four games.
However, over his last 11 games, Lamson has thrown for 2,157 yards (13.4 per completion) with a 21:1 TD/INT ratio. Complement your dynamite running game with an error-free and sometimes explosive passing game, and you'll be very hard to stop. MSU averaged 43.3 points per game in those 11 contests and allowed just 13.9 points per game in the last 13. The Bobcats found a fifth gear and they stayed there, only really having to sweat against Montana in the regular season finale and Yale in their first playoff game.
Record: 12-4
SP+ rating: 10th overall, 11th offensively, 28th defensively.
Selecting the main team for all conferences: WR Daniel Sobkovich (6-3, 205, art.), LT Jake Pope (6-7, 300, senior), LB Ty Niekamp (6-3, 240, Jr., Missouri Valley Defensive Player of the Year), CB Shadwell Ncuba II (6-1, 190, art.)
Key results of the regular season: lost to No. 1 North Dakota State 33-16, lost to No. 25 Youngstown State 40-35, def. No. 21 South Dakota 21-13 def. No. 15 South Dakota State 35-21, lost to No. 24 Southern Illinois 37-7.
Playoff series: by definition No. 16 Southeast Louisiana 21-3 def. No. 1 North Dakota State 29-28 def. No. 8 UC Davis 42-31 def. No. 12 Villanova 30–14
The Brock Spack brought incredible reliability to ISU; in 17 seasons in Normal, his Redbirds won at least six games 14 times and at least 10 five times. Before he arrived in 2009, ISU had won three FCS playoff games in its history and has won 12 since then. But in the rearview mirror, that 2014 title run was starting to look pretty far away. The Redbirds haven't made it past the quarterfinals since then, and they've only made the playoffs once in the 2020s.
Illinois State won four straight games late in the regular season to barely make the playoffs, and the offense produced plenty of big plays. But even with star linebacker Ty Niekamp, the defense didn't look quite right, and a humiliating 37-7 loss to Southern Illinois in the regular-season finale gave no indication of what was to come. Heading into the playoffs, the Redbirds ranked just 21st in SP+ and were considered underdogs in every game they played.
However, they redefined the term “late peaking.” They beat SP+ projections by 7.2 points per game on offense and 14.1 on defense, and after four perfect road wins, they're here.
Will ISU be able to maintain the magic formula?
According to SP+'s pregame projections, ISU had a 0.3% chance of winning its four playoff games – and that doesn't even begin to compare to the degree of difficulty of beating North Dakota State in a shot. five interceptions. But almost everyone on the Redbirds stepped up to help when needed. Defender Tommy Rittenhouse Indeed, he threw five picks in Fargo, but he also threw eight touchdown passes in the last three games. Seven of them went to Daniel Sobkovich, who had 29 catches for 403 yards in four playoff games, scored twice against NDSU and rushed for 150 yards against UC Davis. (Sobkovich also threw a touchdown pass Rittenhouse against southeastern Louisiana.) Pull back Victor DawsonMeanwhile, he has 517 yards (5.3 per carry) in the playoffs after 734 (4.8) in 12 regular-season games.
The defense was ranked 56th in SP+ when the playoffs began, but has blossomed into something quite remarkable. Southeast Louisiana averaged 33.3 points per game during the regular season, but finished with more steals (four) than points scored against the Redbirds. NDSU gained 78 yards on the first snap on a long interception from Bryce Lancebut only gained 101 additional yards. UC Davis, with one of the best offenses in the country, scored 10 points in the first four minutes and 14 in the final three minutes, but scored just once in seven drives in between as ISU took control with a 35-7 run. Villanova turned three early trips into ISU territory into just six points and trailed by 24 when it finally got going again late.
Niekamp was as reliable in the playoffs as ever, but many others contributed when needed with interceptions. Garrett Steffen And Jake Anderson (6.5 TFL and five sacks) on corners Shadwell Ncuba II And Cam Wilson (one INT, seven breakups, TFL, forced fumble and fumble recovery) to safety. C.J. Richard Jr.. (two choices, break and restore). This was a game like the 2007 or 2011 New York Giants, where the QB would occasionally make a mistake at critical moments and an increasingly confident and disruptive defense would take over each time.
If you can hold NDSU to under 200 yards, you can do it with just about anyone, but it's obviously going to be a huge task to shut down a Montana State offense that has scored at least 31 points in 11 of its last 13 games. No one would have thought the odds of success here were high, but if we've learned anything, it's that the Redbirds don't really care about the odds.
So MSU will close the deal this time… right?
Losing in last year's title game was a missed opportunity for Montana State. NDSU wasn't in its best shape in 2024, and Brent Vigen's Bobcats had an undefeated and particularly brilliant team led by All-Americans (and soon-to-be departed) such as quarterback Tommy Mellott — a Walter Payton Award winner and sixth-round NFL draft pick — plus defensive back/tight end Rohan Jones, offensive linemen Marcus Wehr and Conner Moore, and safety Brody Grebe. Attrition awaited them, but NDSU did not. It was time for them to break through, but a poor start in the title match prevented this.
Even if the losses were to Oregon and South Dakota State, an 0-2 start in 2025 coupled with NDSU's immediate brilliance reinforced the idea that MSU's time had passed. But you never know what will happen if you keep trying to improve. Justin Lamson found his rhythm after a slow start, and when it came time for the Bobcats to shift into a new gear, they did.
Going back to the end of the regular season, they played five straight games against playoff teams – including four against quarterfinalists and top eight seeds (Montana twice, Stephen F. Austin and UC Davis) – and won those five games by an average margin of two touchdowns. Lamson completed 72% of his passes and threw for 886 yards, with 334 yards without a sack plus 12 combined touchdowns in those five games and running backs. Adam Jones (double threat) and Julius Davis (workhorse) totaled 856 yards, 120 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns. Receiver slot Taco dowler he didn't always have much to do, but he caught a game-tying 87-yard pass in the semi-final and on the spread. Dane Steele And Chris Long passed too.
Against a strong group of offenses in this five-game series (Montana, among others, ranks second in SP+ offense and UC Davis is eighth), MSU's defense is allowing 21.8 points per game and 5.1 yards per game (not dominant, but well below those opponents' season averages) and is doing a good job of recovering from mistakes: The Bobcats have made 18 sacks and forced 11 turnovers, scoring on three of them. Safety Kayden Dowler had a pick-six in each of the final two games of the regular season, and linebacker Bryce GrebeA 40-yard pick-six completed the semifinal rout.
Cayden Dowler may be the biggest story in the game: He's the best defensive tackle in the FCS – and arguably the best player on any of those rosters – and he's had 6 picks with 4 breakups, 6.5 TFLs and 2 forced fumbles this season. But he left the semi-final win with a hand injury, and while Vigen expressed optimism about his availability, it is a race against the clock and he may not be 100 percent ready even if he plays.
Title game design
DraftKings Projection: Montana State 33.5, Illinois State 23.0 (MSU -10.5, over/under 56.5 points)
Projection SP+: Montana 33.2, Illinois 24.8
According to SP+, Montana State has about a 70% chance of winning this tournament, which means we can almost think of it as three equally likely outcomes: a tight win at ISU, a fairly tight win at MSU, and a comfortable win at MSU. If ISU can control the ball with Dawson and if Rittenhouse avoids picks, the Redbirds could score enough to give themselves a chance. But the Redbirds have little margin for error, as they will also have to continue to significantly outperform MSU's peak attack defensively.
It's hard to bet against Spak's Redbirds given the odds they've defied to get to this point. But it's also pretty easy to see at this point for the state of Montana. The Bobcats continue to get closer and closer, and thanks to ISU, the typical final boss isn't waiting in the finale. If you squint right, both of these teams have a “team of destiny” vibe to them. However, only one will lift the trophy.
