Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in — and the wrong guys out.
We can take some educated guesses based on coaches film, meaningful data, healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Brock Bowers). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
Raheem Morris' defense typically sticks with zone coverage — lots of Cover-3 and Cover-4, both coverages Mayfield has done at least moderately well against this season. However, I wouldn't be surprised if the Falcons attempt to blitz more, especially on third downs, given the state of a Bucs offensive line that lost another starting guard last week. That could mean more man-to-man coverage, which is what Mayfield has been the most inconsistent against this season. Maybe that sounds troubling, but Mike Evans' return should help on two fronts: One, on the snaps Evans and Emeka Egbuka have shared versus zone coverage, Evans has a 27.2% target per route run rate compared to Egbuka's 16%. That flipped against man-to-man coverage (28.6% for Egbuka, 21.4% for Evans), but it was during a time when Egbuka was playing a little more freely and wasn't dropping as many passes. Evans' reliable route-running and hands should be exactly who Mayfield needs to stack stats in this short-week matchup against a sagging Falcons secondary. I'd start both receivers as at worst No. 3 WRs, and Mayfield should be trusted as a borderline No. 1/2 QB, especially with Tristan Wirfs protecting his blindside. It helps that Mayfield has thrown three touchdowns in each of his past three against Morris' Falcons.
You've got to give it to Kyle Pitts — he's turned eight-plus targets into at least 14.9 PPR points in three of four games with Kirk Cousins. Last week, the two connected on a number of deep throws that involved great timing, the beautiful stuff that you normally see from capable QB-WR duos. Tack on a bunch of short, easy throws, and Pitts seems to have the kind of No. 1-type of role Fantasy managers can trust. All of these games came without Drake London, so assume that Pitts might struggle to see the same kind of volume if London plays. And naturally, Cousins has been worse when pressured, something the Bucs always specialize in. But the Bucs play a lot of zone coverage, and that's precisely what Pitts & Cousins beat up on last week against the Seahawks. As long as the Falcons don't crush the Bucs with a huge dose of the run, Pitts should have a shot at another strong stat line.
MUST-STARTS: Bijan Robinson, Bucky Irving
STARTS: Baker Mayfield (borderline No. 1/2 QB), Emeka Egbuka (low-end No. 2 WR), Kyle Pitts, Buccaneers DST (low-end DST)
FLEX: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin (low-end PPR flex)
SITS: Kirk Cousins, Darnell Mooney, Tyler Allgeier, Cade Otton, Rachaad White, Tez Johnson, Jalen McMillan, Sean Tucker, Falcons DSTÂ
The Browns play more man-to-man coverage than any defense in the league, usually with a single-high safety and lots of pass rush pressure, with Myles Garrett leading the way. Caleb Williams has landed the highest off-target rate of any qualifying quarterback versus man-to-man coverage and has the lowest completion rate and third-lowest yards per attempt of any qualifying quarterback when pressured. Just three quarterbacks all season have scored 20-plus Fantasy points on the Browns, and Williams himself has fallen below 19 Fantasy points in three of his past four, so it's pretty easy to make the argument to bench Williams. But over the past five games, the Bears' leaders in target per route run rate against single-high coverages have been Colston Loveland (23.2%) and Luther Burden (23.1%). With Rome Odunze out, I would expect both to have at least the same volume they've landed in their past five (5 targets per game for Burden, 4.8 for Loveland) and be useful low-end starters. Both of these guys have averaged more targets per game in their past five than D.J. Moore (4.4).
Cleveland's run defense had two miserable plays last week that led to 98 rushing yards and two touchdowns for Tony Pollard. These kinds of accidents are rare from the Browns, who, despite these two mishaps, still have given up just a 4.0% explosive rush rate in their past four games. It's fair to expect the Bears to lean into their rush attack, knowing their run blocking has been very good lately, but don't expect the Browns to keep making mistakes in their run fits when they haven't done much of that all season. While it's true that a runner has posted 15-plus PPR in each of the past five against the Browns, Swift shares backfield duties too frequently to be anything more than a low-end No. 2 running back. At least he's likely to catch more passes than Kyle Monangai, plus he tends to play more snaps when the Bears are in hurry-up mode.
STARTS: Quinshon Judkins, D'Andre Swift (low-end No. 2 RB), Harold Fannin Jr. (top-5 TE), Colston Loveland (borderline No. 1/2 TE)
FLEX: Kyle Monangai, Luther Burden III (PPR), Jerry Jeudy (PPR)
SITS: Caleb Williams, Shedeur Sanders, Dylan Sampson (desperation PPR RB), DJ Moore, Olamide Zaccheaus, Cedric Tillman, Cole Kmet, Bears DST, Browns DST
Lamar Jackson has been trending in the right direction on the eyeball test for two weeks now, and with a pillow-soft matchup against a depleted Bengals defense that's missed at least eight tackles in four of its past five games, I'd expect a big game. The two guys he's connected the most with in these last two are Zay Flowers (28.6% target share) and Isaiah Likely (19% target share). Flowers has made some mistakes in the form of drops and getting his feet in-bounds, but has otherwise had really good timing with Jackson and should be a YAC weapon against this Cincy defense. Likely officially scored once last week and had touchdowns erased in each of his past two because of either fumbling into the end zone or a ticky-tack call by the referees. Either way, Likely has emerged as effectively the No. 2 target for Jackson and should rack up numbers against the team that's allowed the most yards per catch to tight ends in the past three seasons and the most yards after catch per reception and touchdowns to tight ends in any of the past six seasons! (Arizona gave up 17 TDs to TEs in 2013, most of this century.)
Mike Gesicki has played six games in the past two years with Joe Burrow, while Tee Higgins has been sidelined. In three of them, he had 12.3 or more PPR points; in the other three, he had seven or fewer … with two of those three coming against the Ravens. That includes the matchup on Thanksgiving this year and a nine-target showdown in Week 10 last year when he finished with a 4-30-0 stat line. Gesicki is a good tight end if you're desperate, but he's just too risky to trust in a matchup that's been hard on him. Week 16 against the Dolphins could be much better.
MUST-STARTS: Ja'Marr Chase, Derrick Henry, Chase Brown
STARTS: Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Zay Flowers (low-end No. 2 WR), Isaiah Likely
SITS: Mark Andrews (TD-dependent TE), Mike Gesicki (desperation TE), Rashod Bateman, Andrei Iosivas, Mitchell Tinsley, DeAndre Hopkins, Samaje Perine, Rasheen Ali, Keaton Mitchell, Ravens DST, Bengals DST
Fantasy Football Today podcast host Adam Aizer has said it perfectly: Houston has faced the top three quarterbacks in Fantasy this year and held them to a combined 28.2 points. Their pass rush has brought straight heat in their past three games, especially against inferior offensive lines. Brissett was already down both his starting guards and his starting right tackle, but losing left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. could ignite the worst of his problems in terms of time to throw. You probably correctly assumed that Brissett's efficiency was worse when pressured this year, but the guy has a 19% off-target rate when pressured (5.8% when not) and a 0.8% TD rate when pressured compared to 6.2% when not. The sad part? Houston probably won't blitz Brissett much because they can apply pressure with their front four defenders, leaving an extra defender to drop into coverage. I fear Brissett's best numbers may have to come in garbage time.
Even with Nick Chubb out, I doubt that Woody Marks will dominate snaps for the Texans — Dare Ogunbowale is a safe bet for third-down reps. But Marks should handle a big workload against a Cardinals run defense that's yielded at least 14.8 PPR points to 10 running backs this year, including two rushers last week and five total in its past four games. Rushers have averaged 5.4 yards per carry, and an 11.1% explosive run rate with five touchdowns scored in the Cards' past four. Marks isn't a stud, but he has a great opportunity in a really good matchup. You should feel good starting him in any format.
MUST-STARTS: Nico Collins, Trey McBride, Texans DST (must-start rest of season)
STARTS: Woody Marks, Michael Wilson, Dalton Schultz (low-end No. 1 TE)
FLEX: Jayden Higgins (low-end flex)
SITS: Jacoby Brissett (No. 2 QB), C.J. Stroud, Zonovan Knight, Michael Carter, Christian Kirk, Dare Ogunbowale, Cardinals DSTÂ
STARTS: Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Breece Hall, Jaguars DST (and save for Week 17)
FLEX: Jakobi Meyers (high-end flex), Brian Thomas Jr. (low-end flex)
SITS: Brady Cook, John Metchie III, Adonai Mitchell, Brenton Strange, Bhayhul Tuten, Isaiah Davis, Jets DST
Getting pass rush pressure on Justin Herbert is a given, and it should be easy for the aggressive Chiefs to do considering the sad state of the Chargers offensive line. But Herbert has been great at avoiding pressure with his legs, so it'll be imperative for the Chiefs to corral Herbert with their pass rush while also sticking like glue to the Chargers pass catchers. Herbert has had mixed results versus the Chiefs since Greg Roman took over the playcalling for the Bolts, only getting good stats in Week 1 this year when his O-line was as healthy as it could be. With their backs against the wall and playing in a favorable home environment, I'd bank on the Chiefs defense doing all it can to disrupt Herbert.
Of the 10 receivers with 14 or more Fantasy points against the Chiefs this year, seven of them had seven or more targets. The Chargers receiver most likely to get seven targets this week would be Ladd McConkey, but it's worth noting that not a single Chargers pass-catcher has a target per route rate higher than 19% when Herbert has been pressured, and none has higher than 15% in their past three games. It makes the whole passing offense tough to trust in Fantasy.
Patrick Mahomes has the same kind of offensive line problems Herbert has. As many as three starters and one backup lineman are expected to miss the game, opening up another set of floodgates for Mahomes to navigate, much like he did last week against the Texans. The Chargers aren't quite as aggressive (sixth-lowest blitz rate in the league), so maybe there's a shot for Mahomes to be more effective, and we know his top targets when he's pressured are predictably Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce. But Rice is the one with the massive 31.9% target per route run rate and 14.9% first-down per route rate against zone coverage (which the Chargers stick with most of the time); Kelce is next-best at 17.6% and 6.9%, respectively. You're already starting those guys, but because they could pull through for big games, Mahomes could also delight with a good-enough stat line, especially if he uses his legs like he did last week — and like he did against the Chargers in Week 1.Â
MUST-STARTS: Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce
STARTS: Patrick Mahomes (borderline No. 1/2 QB), Omarion Hampton, Chargers DST, Chiefs DST (low-end DST)
FLEX: Ladd McConkey, Kareem Hunt
SITS: Justin Herbert, Quentin Johnston, Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown, Keenan Allen, Oronde Gadsden II, Kimani Vidal, Isiah Pacheco, JuJu Smith-Schuster
The Bills' biggest problem coming into Week 14 is a lack of a threatening pass rush. In their past five games against a bunch of teams with suspect offensive lines, they've totaled three sacks and a league-worst pass rush pressure rate of 24.5%. Joe Burrow (four touchdowns) was the most recent benefactor of such issues. They could ill afford to give Drake Maye time to throw; his average depth of throw jumps from 5.2 to 11.1, his yards per attempt morphs from 6.6 to 10.3, and his QB rating jumps from 105.9 to 115.6 when he has more than 2.5 seconds to throw. To be fair, the Bills have been good at defending downfield passes on the season, except against the Patriots in Week 5 when Maye completed 6 of 7 throws of 15-plus air yards for 129 yards (48 to Stefon Diggs). Diggs not only has the highest target per route run rate of any Patriots receiver when Maye has at least 2.5 seconds (22.2%), but he also has the highest target per route run rate against zone coverage, which the Bills play plenty of (23.9%). Hopefully, Diggs comes off the bye refreshed and able to log more snaps than the 46.9% he had in his past two.
MUST STARTS: Josh Allen, Drake Maye, James Cook
FLEX: Stefon Diggs, TreVeyon Henderson, Khalil Shakir
SITS: Rhamondre Stevenson (desperation RB), Kayshon Boutte (sleeper), Hunter Henry, Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins, Dawson Knox, Ty Johnson, Ray Davis, Patriots DST (high-end No. 2 DST, hold for Week 17), Bills DST (hold for Week 16)
STARTS: Jaxson Dart, Terry McLaurin, Tyrone Tracy Jr.
FLEX: Wan'Dale Robinson, Deebo Samuel
SITS: Marcus Mariota (high-end No. 2 QB), Theo Johnson (high-end No. 2 TE), Darius Slayton, Devin Singletary and Chris Rodriguez (desperation RBs), Jeremy McNichols, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Commanders DST, Giants DST
MUST-STARTS: Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Brock Bowers
STARTS: Jalen Hurts, Ashton Jeanty (No. 2 RB), DeVonta Smith, Eagles DST (and keep for Week 16)
SITS: Kenny Pickett, Dallas Goedert, Tre Tucker, Jack Bech, Tank Bigsby, Raheem Mostert, Raiders DST
I've written in this space about the difference in Jordan Love's efficiency being bad when he's pressured and great when he's not. This matchup will be very telling — the Broncos are top-10 in pass rush pressure rate (40%), top-eight in blitz rate (32.8%), and have the league's highest sack rate (10.9%). They are also top 10 in completion rate allowed on throws of 20-plus air yards (29.8%) with no major inefficiencies compared to the rest of the league. Love's deep throw (20-plus air yards) rate when pressured has been 16%, and on the season, he has yet to throw a touchdown on a deep ball when pressured (four when he's not). Only four quarterbacks have topped even 17 Fantasy points against Denver this year, only three threw multiple touchdowns, and only one in Denver. Starting Love this week would mean going against his and the Broncos' track records.
Christian Watson deserves all of the props for his recent hot streak. But before you start him, just know that every single one of the eight receivers with 13-plus PPR points against Denver this season did so on the strength of seeing at least nine targets. Watson had 10 targets in his big Thanksgiving Day game at Detroit, but has otherwise had one other game in his career with nine or more targets. The Packers tend to spread targets around to all of their receivers, so it would be a surprise if Watson dominated targets again, especially in such a tough matchup.
MUST STARTS: Josh Jacobs
STARTS: R.J. Harvey (No. 2 RB), Courtland Sutton, Broncos DST, Packers DST
FLEX: Christian Watson
SITS: Bo Nix, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Evan Engram, Pat Bryant, Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims, Luke Musgrave, Jaleel McLaughlin, Tyler Badie
Jared Goff's track record against his former team isn't good — he has never had more than 16.8 Fantasy points against them in three tries, playoffs included. Yet the Lions have won each of their last two meetings against the Rams thanks to their run game finding the end zone. The opposite is true for the Rams — Matthew Stafford's had big yardage totals and found great Fantasy points in two of three meetings (not last year), but the run game has stalled. I think both offensive lines will make a real difference as they're both more than capable of handling their opposing pass rushes and giving their quarterbacks chances to throw. While the Lions secondary remains beaten up, the Rams secondary has given up some big plays over their last two games, enough to be encouraged to start Goff even though he's never done well against L.A.
MUST-STARTS: Matthew Stafford, Jahmyr Gibbs, Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Davante Adams
STARTS: Jared Goff, Jameson Williams, Kyren WilliamsÂ
FLEX: David Montgomery (non-PPR)
SITS: Colby Parkinson (high-end No. 2 TE), Blake Corum (desperation RB), Isaac TeSlaa, Ross Dwelley, Rams DST, Lions DSTÂ
STARTS: Chris Olave, Rico Dowdle, Tetairoa McMillan, Devin Neal
FLEX: Chuba Hubbard, Juwan Johnson
SITS: Tyler Shough, Bryce Young, Jalen Coker, Devaughn Vele, Xavier Legette, Taysom Hill, Panthers DST (desperation DST), Saints DST
Sure, this seems like a great opportunity for Kenneth Walker III to have a big game, but how many times have we said that over the past … well, the whole season? In recent favorable matchups against the Falcons, Vikings, Titans, Cardinals, and Commanders, Walker notched 13.1 or fewer full PPR points (and scored 20.1 at the Rams, the game with the worst gamescript!). What I saw from Walker last week was a lot of shuffling his feet in the backfield, a telltale sign of indecision. Worse, whenever he stopped his feet, he was a tick slow to restart and accelerate. Granted, the guy can still fly once he finds space to actually accelerate, but that seems to be rare. Plus, we've continually watched Zach Charbonnet hog 60% of the Seahawks' snaps inside the 10-yard line this season (and 78% from the 1-yard line), as well as much of the passing-downs work. Yes, this should be another big Seattle blowout win, but Walker has put up nice numbers in just two out of six of those in 2025.
MUST-STARTS: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jonathan Taylor
STARTS: Tyler Warren, Seahawks DST (and hold for Week 17)
FLEX: Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, Zach Charbonnet, Kenneth Walker III
SITS: Sam Darnold, Riley Leonard, Rashid Shaheed, Cooper Kupp, Josh Downs, A.J. Barner, Colts DST
MUST-STARTS: Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle
STARTS: Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, 49ers DST
FLEX: Ricky Pearsall (low-end flex), Tony Pollard (non-PPR)
SITS: Cam Ward, Tyjae Spears (desperation RB), Chimere Dike, Chig konkwo, Brian Robinson Jr., Titans DST
The Vikings did right by J.J. McCarthy and kept things simple last week. He gravitated toward out-breaking routes and hit most of them for solid to nice gains including two to Jordan Addison for 20-plus yards each and the short touchdown to T.J. Hockenson. On occasion he got locked onto a target, and there were times he turned down easy throws which led to pass rush-related issues he couldn't get out of. But both touchdowns to Josh Oliver were examples of good processing. There's hope here, particularly in a matchup that figures to give McCarthy a shot at throwing 30-plus times. Dallas has allowed at least 24 Fantasy points to two of their past three opponents and 10 of 13 passers this year. McCarthy might not be a trustworthy start, but his improved play should be a step in the right direction toward trusting Justin Jefferson again as a No. 2 receiver.Â
MUST STARTS: Dak Prescott, George Pickens, CeeDee Lamb
STARTS: Javonte Williams, Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, Jake Ferguson (low-end starting TE)
FLEX: Jordan Addison (low-end PPR flex)
SITS: J.J. McCarthy, T.J. Hockenson, Ryan Flournoy (pronounced “Flah-noy”), Jordan Mason, Malik Davis, Cowboys DST, Vikings DST
MUST-STARTS: De'Von Achane
STARTS: Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins DST
FLEX: DK Metcalf, Kenneth Gainwell, Jaylen Warren
SITS: Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa, Darren Waller (desperation TE), Malik Washington, Jonnu Smith, Pat Freiermuth, Jaylen Wright, Ollie Gordon, Steelers DST
