With Tkachuk in the lineup: 3-8-0.
Without Tkachuk out of the lineup: 11-5-4.
Is Tkachuk to blame for this?
He and his team certainly could have been better, and they pulled off an impressive 6-3 win in Columbus on Thursday.
But let's be clear: Tkachuk is not primarily, much less solely, to blame for the Senators' failures with him on the roster.
So how do we explain this stunning truth?
Teammate Claude Giroux has the answer.
“It has nothing to do with Brady,” Giroux said. “I don't think we're playing that bad at hockey. Can we play better? Yeah, sure. But we're doing a lot of good things now, and it's going to start clicking.”
Giroud had one explanation. Now let's take a stab at Tkachuk.
It's a combination of factors: poor defense, poor puck handling, an injury to the highly valuable Shane Pinto, mediocre goaltending, and Tkachuk's inability to play at his best.
Here are the Senators' numbers without Tkachuk and since his return.
Statistics from Natural StatTrick
Looking at the numbers, perhaps the most telling thing is that the Senators have gone from being a top defensive team to mid-table in expected goals while generating more offense, even though they aren't converting as often with Tkachuk back.
Here's how to describe the Senators after Tkachuk's return: run and gun. Ottawa has gone from one of the most uneven teams in hockey, not creating or allowing many chances, to the opposite, creating many chances but allowing many. Simple, defensive hockey helped the Senators so much. Analytics and eye tests will show you that they have moved away from stifling defensive hockey to generate more, but also miss more chances.
“We're not a team that just comes out and has two or three guys that just dominate the game,” Senators coach Travis Green said after their loss to New Jersey.
As good as Tkachuk is, and Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson for that matter, they are not the caliber of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon or Cale Makar. For the Senators to be successful, there will need to be a collective commitment to defensive hockey, which has taken a step back since Tkachuk's return.
“If you look at teams that win championships, they don't give up much,” Green told Sportsnet.ca last week about the spirit he tries to instill in his team.
“I think from day one last year (defense) was the one area we needed to strengthen in our group and a real belief that if we check and play good defense, we'll win games. I don't even look at it as defensive hockey. It's just trying to get the puck back and not give up a lot, and we usually end up creating more chances when we do that.”
Another major explanation that should weigh in the Senators' favor is the elusive “puck luck.”
Four of Tkachuk's five losses were games by one goal, as the Senators have the most one-goal losses of any team this season. The Senators have fallen so close, but so far down the standings. Plus, the Senators rank 18th in shooting percentage since Tkachuk's return. It could have been a different story, as it was on Thursday night against Columbus, when they scored five goals, not counting the empty net.
“It's frustrating,” Tkachuk said of the recent losses. “It feels like (we) just can't buy a point. We can't buy a win right now, but I know things will change soon.”
Tkachuk, meanwhile, took a lot of hits to the face, taking high kicks in three straight games. A metaphor for his return to the lineup.
Injuries also played a role, especially the absence of Pinto and Thomas Chabot, who are almost, if not as important as Tkachuk's absence. Without Chabot, Tyler Kleven and Jordan Spence would have to contend with stronger competition. The duo was responsible for three of the four goals against New Jersey on Tuesday.
Pinto, meanwhile, kept opponents down while providing the secondary five-on-five scoring. Since Pinto was injured on Dec. 4, the Senators have scored four goals in five-on-five play. This season, Pinto scored the second most points of any Senator in five-on-five play with 14 points, and he accounted for 22 Senators goals in five-on-five play.
Neither Chabot nor Pinto are expected to be out long-term, but neither will return for the Senators' current road trip.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect of Tkachuk's return was the impact on Stutzle. The duo went 6-4 at five-on-five this season. One would expect Tkachuk's reintegration to do wonders for Stutzle; in fact, it's done the opposite. Stutzle has five points in seven games since Tkachuk returned. With Tkachuk sidelined, Stuetzle scored 11 goals and 22 points in 20 games. But Green split up and then reunited the duo after Tkachuk returned, hoping to find a spark, and they dominated Thursday against Columbus, with Stuetzle scoring twice.
“When you don't score or don't score in a couple of games, you want to try something new,” Green said. “As coaches, it's part of our job to try to provide a spark. You hope something clicks.”
The hope is that both can get hot at the same time, which is paramount to getting the Senators back into the playoffs. When Stuetzle scored on a power play Tuesday, Tkachuk hugged him with visibly relieved relief.
Finally, Tkachuk himself needs to improve. Nine points in 10 games is not bad, especially when combined with stellar analytics. But one goal for the whole season is not enough.
Against Columbus, Tkachuk was slow to return from the offensive zone, returning to his goal too late to prevent Boone Jenner from scoring. Early in the third period, Green had a heated verbal altercation with Tkachuk on the bench. Tkachuk has been a defensive liability in the past but improved last season, ranking 128th out of 704 skaters with a 2.26 expected goals allowed when he was on the ice, according to Emerging hockey. He needs to get back into that defensive form this season to lead by example.
We know the Senators won't be a .300 team with Tkachuk for the rest of the season. But it is the captain who must return the team to the playoffs. If not, the discussion surrounding Tkachuk will not only be about his ability to win, but also about his future in Ottawa.
Dylan Cozens is warming up over time
For the first time in his career as an Ottawa Senator, Dylan Cozens scored two five-on-five points in one game, coming out against Columbus on Thursday night and finishing with three assists. Cozens has struggled at five-on-five with a minus-12 mark this season, but has six points in four games since Pinto was injured. The onus is on Cozens to continue producing with an expanded role. Meanwhile, Green seems to enjoy the duo of Drake Batherson and Cozens and regularly plays them together. They have an elite expected goals rate of 57.16 at five-on-five when they're together.
One of the weirdest stats in the NHL: Despite averaging just 4:20 of ice time per game, the Senators are 7-1-2 with Kurtis McDermid in the lineup. McDermid is known more for his fist fights than for his assistants. The Senators certainly aren't winning because of his impact on the ice, but one possible reason for the success is that his limited ice time allows them to play their star players more often. Don't fight what works.
Lars Eller left the game against Columbus after blocking a shot and was in a lot of pain in the second period. There was no news of his return. Ottawa's injury problems continue.
